Real-time US 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread — the classic recession signal. An inverted yield curve (a negative spread) has preceded every US recession in recent decades.
As of October 23, 2026, the US 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield-curve spread is +0.31 percentage points, meaning the curve is normal and upward-sloping (the 10-year yields more than the 2-year). The curve is not inverted; an inverted yield curve (a negative spread) is the configuration that has historically signaled recession risk.
10Y−2Y Treasury Constant Maturity spread (FRED T10Y2Y) · as of October 23, 2026
Weekly history back to 1976. The shaded red area below the zero line marks every period the curve was inverted — note how those stretches tend to precede recessions.
The yield curve plots Treasury yields across maturities. Normally it slopes upward — longer-dated bonds pay more than shorter ones. When that relationship flips and short-term yields exceed long-term yields, the curve is inverted. The 10-year minus 2-year spread shown above is the most-watched version: a positive number means a normal curve, and a negative number means an inverted yield curve, which has historically been one of the most reliable early warnings of a US recession.
An inverted yield curve is when shorter-term Treasury yields rise above longer-term yields. In the 10-year/2-year version shown here, inversion means the 2-year Treasury yields more than the 10-year, so the spread (10y minus 2y) is negative. It is unusual because investors normally demand higher yields to lend over longer periods.
A sustained inversion of the 10-year/2-year spread has preceded every US recession of the past several decades, which is why it is one of the most-watched recession signals. It reflects investor expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the future as economic growth slows.
Its historical track record is strong but it is not infallible. The lag between inversion and the start of a recession has varied from several months to roughly two years, and an inversion signals elevated risk rather than a precise date. It is best used alongside other indicators such as the Buffett Indicator and market sentiment.
It shows the current 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread, updated daily from the Federal Reserve (FRED) — a live, real-time view of whether the yield curve is inverted today. The series is published each US business day, so the value reflects the latest available reading.
As of October 23, 2026, the 10-year minus 2-year spread is +0.31 percentage points, so the curve is currently not inverted (normal).