A live dashboard of the most-watched market gauges — valuation and recession risk — distilled into one Zyberno Market Valuation Score.
As of August 31, 2026, the Zyberno Market Valuation Score is 73 out of 100 (Elevated — stretched). Valuation gauges are at historic extremes — the Buffett Indicator is at 214% and the Shiller PE at 42.2. Recession signals remain calm — the yield curve is normal (not inverted) (+0.41%) and credit spreads are very tight (calm) (1.60%). In short: an expensively valued market with no immediate recession trigger — priced for perfection.
Backtested monthly across four recessions — the proprietary backbone of the Zyberno Market Valuation Score.
Today's reading sits in the 97th percentile of the last 40 years. Across 1986–2026 a higher score has tracked lower S&P 500 returns over the following decade (correlation -0.78): when the score was in its top half, the next ten years returned about 5.5%/yr, versus 10.8%/yr from the bottom half. Recessions are shaded.
The score distils four independent gauges into one 0-to-100 reading of how stretched and risky the US market is. Each gauge is scored 0 (historically cheap or calm) to 100 (extreme) based on where it sits in its own history, then blended:
Valuation (60%): Shiller PE (40%) and the Buffett Indicator (20%) — how expensive stocks are. Recession & credit risk (40%): the yield curve (30%) and the credit spread (10%) — whether the market is flashing stress. A high score means an expensive market and/or rising risk; a low score means cheap and calm.
We backtested the score monthly from 1986 to today, across four recessions, and validated the weights out-of-sample. The clear finding: a high score has lined up with lower S&P 500 returns over the following decade — a correlation of about −0.75. When the score sat in its high range, the next ten years returned roughly half what they did from low readings.
As of August 31, 2026, the Zyberno Market Valuation Score is 73 out of 100 (Elevated — stretched). Valuation gauges are at historic extremes — the Buffett Indicator is at 214% and the Shiller PE at 42.2. Recession signals remain calm — the yield curve is normal (not inverted) (+0.41%) and credit spreads are very tight (calm) (1.60%). In short: an expensively valued market with no immediate recession trigger — priced for perfection.
It is a single 0-to-100 reading that combines four of the most-watched market gauges — the Shiller PE and Buffett Indicator (valuation), plus the yield curve and credit spread (recession risk) — into one number. A high score means an expensive, stretched market; a low score means a cheap, low-risk one. We backtested it monthly from 1986 to today: a high score has historically been followed by lower S&P 500 returns over the next decade (correlation about -0.75).
Each of the four gauges is converted to a 0-to-100 sub-score based on how extreme it sits versus its historical range, then blended: Shiller PE 40%, Buffett Indicator 20%, yield curve 30%, credit spread 10% (60% valuation, 40% recession risk). These weights were tuned on 40 years of data, across four recessions, and validated out-of-sample for robustness rather than fitted to one period. The full method is shown in the methodology section above.
Yes. We rebuilt it monthly from 1986 to today across four recessions. A higher score has been followed by lower S&P 500 returns over the next decade (correlation -0.78): the top half of readings preceded roughly 5.5%/yr over the following ten years versus 10.8%/yr from the bottom half. It is a long-run valuation gauge, not a recession-timing tool — as a recession timer it would have missed 1990 and 2008.
No. The Fear & Greed Index measures short-term market sentiment (days to weeks), while the Zyberno Market Valuation Score is built only from structural valuation and recession gauges. Fear & Greed is shown on the dashboard for context and timing, but is deliberately excluded from the composite score so that fast-moving emotion does not distort the longer-term valuation reading.
Yes — every gauge refreshes automatically from its source (Federal Reserve data and market prices), so the dashboard and the composite score always reflect the latest available readings.
Want valuation at the individual stock level? That's what the Brina Gap measures — the market-wide mispricing this dashboard tracks, applied company by company. See which stocks it flags right now on the Brina Gap Movers page.