Technology • NASDAQ
According to Zyberno, Apple Inc. (AAPL) is not a buy — GOOD BUSINESS (71/100) with a negative Margin of Safety of -100.0% and a Brina Gap of -15.2% showing the market already prices in more growth than the fundamentals support.
According to Zyberno's DCF model, Apple Inc. (AAPL) trades at $314.58 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $149.44 — a -100.0% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $124.48B TTM, projected at 7.8% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. The Brina Gap of -15.2% weakens the case: based on the company's ROIC (63.1%) and reinvestment rate (0.8%), the business can fundamentally grow at 0.5% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects 15.7%. This places AAPL in the Expensive Hype quadrant of the Brina Matrix, the most fragile combination — overvalued on cash AND overpriced on growth. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of -7.1% annually.
Over the trailing twelve months, AAPL generated $124.48B in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $24.70B returned via share buybacks, $15.49B paid as dividends, $12.15B invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: 0.8%. Owner Earnings have grown at 7.8% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.