💰 Intrinsic Value: $459.5M
DCF valuation based on Owner Earnings growing at 23.70% annually
📈 Expected Return: 57.60%
Projected annual return if stock converges to fair value over 5 years
Where UNB Falls on the Value Scale
UNB is currently trading at 75.50% below intrinsic value
What is Margin of Safety?
"The margin of safety is always dependent on the price paid. It will be large at one price, small at some higher price, nonexistent at some still higher price."- Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor
Margin of Safety is a fundamental concept in value investing, introduced by Benjamin Graham and embraced by Warren Buffett. It represents the difference between a stock's intrinsic value and its market price, expressed as a percentage. This "cushion" protects investors from errors in analysis, unforeseen events, and market volatility.
How We Calculate Margin of Safety
Margin of Safety = ((Intrinsic Value - Market Cap) / Intrinsic Value) × 100
For UNB:
MoS = (($459.5M - $112.6M) / $459.5M) × 100
MoS = 75.50%
A positive margin of safety means the stock is trading below its intrinsic value - you're potentially buying dollars for less than a dollar. A negative margin of safety means you're paying a premium.
Why 30% is the Magic Number
Benjamin Graham famously recommended a margin of safety of at least 30% before buying. This buffer accounts for:
- Estimation errors: Intrinsic value calculations involve assumptions that may be wrong
- Unforeseen events: Economic downturns, competitive threats, management issues
- Market volatility: Prices can fall further before recovering
- Opportunity cost: Capital tied up in fairly-valued stocks can't buy bargains
Deep Discount Zone
UNB's 75.50% margin of safety suggests: Significant discount to intrinsic value — exceptional margin of safety
"Price is what you pay, value is what you get."- Warren Buffett
Important Considerations
Margin of safety is just one factor in investment decisions. Before acting on this signal, consider:
- Quality of the business: High ROIC, durable competitive advantages, honest management
- Growth trajectory: Is Owner Earnings growing or declining?
- Balance sheet strength: Debt levels, interest coverage, liquidity
- Industry dynamics: Secular headwinds or tailwinds
- Your own analysis: Never rely solely on any single metric or tool
🔗 Understanding the Calculation
Margin of Safety is derived directly from Intrinsic Value. Here's how we calculate UNB's margin of safety step by step:
Want to understand how we calculate the intrinsic value of $459.5M?
View DCF Methodology & Calculation →Our DCF model uses Owner Earnings (Warren Buffett's preferred cash flow metric), a 10% discount rate (Buffett's hurdle rate), and a data-driven growth rate calculated via log-linear regression on historical data. See the full methodology on our Intrinsic Value page.
🔗 The Valuation Trilogy
Margin of Safety is the second piece of Zyberno's valuation framework, connecting Intrinsic Value to Expected Return:
Higher intrinsic value + higher margin of safety = higher expected return
📊 Full UNB Stock Report →
See complete financial analysis with 250+ metrics.
💰 UNB Intrinsic Value →
Detailed DCF methodology and how we calculate fair value.
📈 UNB Expected Return →
Projected annual return if stock converges to intrinsic value.
👤 UNB Owner Earnings →
The cash flow metric that powers our DCF valuation.
🔁 UNB ROIC →
Return on Invested Capital - business quality metric.
💵 UNB Free Cash Flow →
Cash generation after capital expenditures.
🪙 UNB EPS →
Earnings Per Share history and growth trends.
☷ UNB Brina Gap →
Fundamental growth vs. what the market price is implicitly assuming.
📏 UNB Momentum →
12-1 price momentum and 52-week-high position - market context, not valuation.
Summary: UNB Valuation Status
According to Zyberno's DCF model, UNION BANKSHARES, INC. (UNB) has a Margin of Safety of +75.5% — a strong buy signal indicating the stock trades at a significant discount to Zyberno's estimated intrinsic value per share of $95.99. Zyberno's model estimates a 5-year annual return of 57.6%.
UNION BANKSHARES, INC. is currently trading at $23.52 per share compared to Zyberno's estimated intrinsic value of $95.99. This represents a margin of safety of 75.50% — valuation status: DEEPLY UNDERVALUED.
Significant discount to intrinsic value — exceptional margin of safety. This translates to an expected annual return of 57.60% if the stock converges to fair value. For complete analysis including business quality metrics, profitability ratios, and balance sheet strength, view the full UNB stock report. To understand how Zyberno calculates intrinsic value, see the UNB intrinsic value analysis.
Zyberno's margin of safety is the direct output of the model — the percentage gap between intrinsic value and the current price. The number is not smoothed toward analyst targets or market sentiment. A margin of safety of +40% means the model values the business 40% above what the market is currently pricing in.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is UNB's margin of safety?
UNION BANKSHARES, INC.'s margin of safety is 75.50%. This represents the percentage difference between our calculated intrinsic value ($459.5M) and the current market cap ($112.6M).
Should I buy UNB stock now?
Based on margin of safety alone, UNB has a DEEPLY UNDERVALUED valuation status. However, always conduct your own research and consider multiple factors before making investment decisions.
What is a good margin of safety for stocks?
Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, recommended a margin of safety of at least 30%% before buying a stock. This cushion protects against estimation errors, unforeseen events, and market volatility. Higher quality businesses may warrant smaller margins, while riskier businesses require larger ones.
How is margin of safety calculated?
Margin of Safety = ((Intrinsic Value - Market Cap) / Intrinsic Value) × 100. A positive value means the stock trades below intrinsic value; negative means it trades above.
Is UNB undervalued or overvalued?
Based on our DCF analysis, UNB appears significantly undervalued with a 75.50% margin of safety.