🛡 Margin of Safety: -100.00%
Trading significantly above intrinsic value
📈 Expected Return: -25.30%
Projected annual return if stock converges to fair value over 5 years
☷ Brina Gap Analysis EXCLUSIVE
Our DCF model calculates what this business is worth based on its historical earnings power. The Brina Gap adds the forward view: it compares the growth rate the business's fundamentals structurally support against what the current stock price is already assuming. If the market is underestimating a business our model values highly, conviction in the intrinsic value increases. If the market is already pricing in stronger growth, that valuation may be less of an opportunity than it appears.
See all four signal layers on the complete H stock report.
⚙ DCF Model Inputs
📈 Owner Earnings History (24 Quarters)
How We Calculate H's Intrinsic Value
"Intrinsic value is the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life."- Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway Owner's Manual
Zyberno calculates intrinsic value using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model based on Owner Earnings - Warren Buffett's preferred measure of true economic earnings.
Step 1: Calculate Owner Earnings
Owner Earnings represents the true cash a business generates for its owners after maintaining its competitive position.
Owner Earnings = Operating Cash Flow - Maintenance CapEx
Where Maintenance CapEx = MIN(Total CapEx, Depreciation)
H's current Owner Earnings (TTM): $113.0M
Step 2: Determine Growth Rate
We use log-linear regression on 24 quarters of historical Owner Earnings data to calculate a data-driven growth rate.
log(Owner Earnings) = slope × quarter + intercept
Annual Growth Rate = (e^(4 × slope) - 1) × 100%
H's calculated growth rate: 10.63%
Step 3: Two-Stage DCF Model
We project Owner Earnings for 10 years at the calculated growth rate, then calculate a terminal value assuming perpetual growth at 2.5%.
Explicit Forecast Period (Years 1-10)
Project Owner Earnings growing at 10.63% annually, discounted at 10% per year.
Terminal Value (Year 11+)
Calculate perpetual value using Gordon Growth Model at 2.5% terminal growth rate.
Sum Present Values
Add discounted explicit period cash flows + discounted terminal value = Intrinsic Value.
Stage 1: Sum of (Owner Earnings × (1 + g)^t) / (1 + r)^t for t = 1 to 10
Stage 2: Terminal Value = (Year 10 OE × (1 + 2.5%)) / (r - 2.5%)
Discounted TV = Terminal Value / (1 + r)^10
Intrinsic Value = Stage 1 + Discounted TV
Where: g = growth rate (10.63%), r = discount rate (10%)
Why 10% Discount Rate?
We use 10% as the discount rate, which represents Warren Buffett's traditional hurdle rate for investments. This is the minimum annual return an investor should expect for taking equity risk.
Why Owner Earnings Instead of Free Cash Flow?
Owner Earnings differs from Free Cash Flow in how it treats capital expenditures. FCF subtracts all CapEx, while Owner Earnings only subtracts maintenance CapEx. This distinction matters because growth CapEx creates future value.
🔗 The Valuation Trilogy
Intrinsic Value is the foundation of Zyberno's valuation framework. It connects directly to two other key metrics:
Higher intrinsic value + higher margin of safety = higher expected return
📊 Full H Stock Report →
See complete financial analysis with 250+ metrics.
🛡 H Margin of Safety →
Detailed analysis of the margin between price and value.
📈 H Expected Return →
Projected annual return if stock converges to intrinsic value.
👤 H Owner Earnings →
The cash flow metric that powers our DCF valuation.
🔁 H ROIC →
Return on Invested Capital - business quality metric.
💵 H Free Cash Flow →
Cash generation after capital expenditures.
🪙 H EPS →
Earnings Per Share history and growth trends.
☷ H Brina Gap →
Fundamental growth vs. what the market price is implicitly assuming.
📏 H Momentum →
12-1 price momentum and 52-week-high position - market context, not valuation.
Summary: H Valuation
According to Zyberno's DCF model, Hyatt Hotels Corp (H) is overvalued — current price of $172.77 significantly exceeds the intrinsic value per share of $24.16, with a negative Margin of Safety of -100.0%.
Based on Zyberno's DCF analysis, Hyatt Hotels Corp has an intrinsic value of $2.3B ($24.16 per share) compared to a current market cap of $16.3B. This represents a margin of safety of -100.00%, indicating the stock is overvalued according to Zyberno's valuation model.
Zyberno's valuation is based on Owner Earnings of $113.0M growing at 10.63% annually, discounted at Buffett's 10% minimum hurdle rate. This translates to an expected annual return of -25.30% if the stock converges to fair value. For complete financial analysis including quality scores, profitability metrics, and balance sheet strength, view the full H stock report.
Zyberno's intrinsic value is the direct output of a reverse DCF on owner earnings — discount rate, growth rate, and terminal value are all visible on this page. The number reflects the model, not the current price or analyst consensus. If the math says a business is worth $500 and it trades at $300, that is what we show.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is H's intrinsic value?
Hyatt Hotels Corp's intrinsic value is $2.3B, calculated using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model based on Owner Earnings. This represents the present value of all future cash flows the business is expected to generate for shareholders.
Is H undervalued or overvalued?
H appears overvalued with a negative margin of safety of -100.00%. The current price exceeds our intrinsic value estimate.
How is H's intrinsic value calculated?
We use a two-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. First, we project Owner Earnings ($113.0M TTM) growing at 10.63% annually for 10 years. Then we calculate a terminal value assuming 2.5% perpetual growth. All cash flows are discounted at 10% (Buffett's hurdle rate) to arrive at present value.
What is Owner Earnings and why use it?
Owner Earnings is Warren Buffett's preferred cash flow measure, calculated as Operating Cash Flow minus Maintenance Capital Expenditures. Unlike Free Cash Flow (which subtracts all CapEx), Owner Earnings only deducts the spending needed to maintain current operations, not growth investments. This better represents the true cash available to shareholders.
How reliable is the growth rate used?
The growth rate of 10.63% is calculated using log-linear regression on 24 quarters of historical Owner Earnings data. This data-driven approach is more objective than analyst estimates, though past performance doesn't guarantee future results.