The Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in. Ferrellgas Partners L P (FGPR) has a Brina Gap of +0.42%: the business can grow at -2.97% based on its return on invested capital and reinvestment rate, while the current enterprise value implies the market expects -3.39% growth going forward. Status: Fairly Priced.
📊 Signal Interpretation
| Brina Gap | Interpretation | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| > +7% | The stock price assumes much slower growth than the business can actually deliver. A large and meaningful gap. | Market Underestimates |
| +3% to +7% | The stock price assumes somewhat slower growth than the business can deliver. A moderate gap. | Slight Underestimate |
| ±3% ◀ | The stock price roughly reflects what the business can deliver. The gap is within normal estimation error. | Fairly Priced |
| −3% to −7% | The stock price assumes somewhat faster growth than the business is likely to deliver. A moderate gap. | Slight Overestimate |
| < −7% | The stock price assumes much faster growth than the business is likely to deliver. A large and meaningful gap. | Market Overestimates |
☷ Brina Matrix
Two independent signals plotted simultaneously: the Margin of Safety (horizontal axis) measures whether the stock is cheap relative to historical Owner Earnings; the Brina Gap (vertical axis) measures whether the market is underestimating or overestimating forward fundamental growth capacity. Their intersection identifies the investment archetype.
In the Brina Matrix, Ferrellgas Partners L P (FGPR) is in Value Trap territory — the stock looks cheap at Margin of Safety +36.60% relative to historical earnings, but the Brina Gap of +0.42% shows the current price still assumes faster growth than the business can actually deliver. The apparent bargain does not hold up on a forward basis.
☷ The Four Investment Archetypes
⚙ Component Metrics
📖 Methodology
What is the Brina Gap?
The Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in. The Fundamental Growth Rate is calculated entirely from financial statement data — ROIC × Reinvestment Rate — with no reference to the stock price. The Market-Implied Growth Rate is derived by reverse DCF: we solve numerically for the growth rate that, when plugged into a standard two-stage DCF model, produces exactly the current Enterprise Value. The difference between these two independently derived estimates is the Gap.
Brina Gap = g_f − g*
g_f = ROIC × Reinvestment Rate
ROIC = NOPAT / Invested Capital
RR = Net Reinvestment / NOPAT
g* = Reverse DCF (WACC 10%, terminal g 3%, 10-yr horizon)
Why it matters
Traditional valuation is anchored in demonstrated past performance. A stock may appear cheap relative to historical earnings while the market has already correctly identified that future economics will be weaker. Conversely, a stock may appear expensive while the market systematically underestimates its forward compounding capacity. The Brina Gap addresses this asymmetry: a positive Gap means the business is structurally capable of growing faster than the price implies. A negative Gap means the price already bakes in more growth than the fundamentals support.
"The Brina Gap is most powerful for businesses whose growth is genuinely reinvestment-driven — companies that grow by deploying retained earnings into productive assets at high returns on invested capital."— Brina, F. (2026). The Brina Gap: A Framework for Identifying Growth Mispricing in Equity Markets. Zyberno Working Paper v3.0. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20651608
Boundary conditions
The Fundamental Growth Rate formula is not applicable when: (1) Invested Capital is negative or near zero; (2) NOPAT is negative; (3) the business grows without deploying capital (capital-free growth via network effects or pricing power — these businesses are often the most valuable, but the Gap formula cannot be applied); (4) transition years with distorted reinvestment from large acquisitions; (5) cyclical businesses where single-year reinvestment data is economically misleading and multi-year normalization is required. When a boundary condition is triggered, the Brina Gap is not shown or should be treated as directional only.
The Earnings Quality Divergence (EQD) filter gates signal reliability. When Owner Earnings significantly exceeds Free Cash Flow (EQD ≥ 0.30×), the D&A addback may be inflating Owner Earnings via acquisition-related amortization — overstating both the Margin of Safety and the Brina Gap. The filter displays a warning proportionate to the divergence magnitude.
Full methodology, the complete survivorship-free S&P 500 validation (every constituent, 2010–2024), and robustness analysis: Brina Gap Working Paper.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is FGPR's Brina Gap?
The Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in. FGPR's Brina Gap is +0.42% (Fairly Priced). The stock price reflects what the business can actually deliver. The business can grow at -2.97% based on its return on invested capital and reinvestment rate, while the current enterprise value implies the market expects -3.39% growth going forward.
Where does FGPR sit on the Brina Matrix?
FGPR is positioned in the VALUE TRAP quadrant of the Brina Matrix. The stock looks cheap relative to historical earnings, but the negative Brina Gap shows the price still assumes faster growth than the business can finance — you are overpaying for growth the fundamentals do not support. This is the framework's most accurate signal: a 59.5% hit rate at flagging these traps across the complete, survivorship-free S&P 500 (2010–2024).
How is the Brina Gap calculated?
You run a reverse discounted cash flow: instead of forecasting cash flows to estimate a fair value, you take the current enterprise value (market capitalisation plus net debt) as given and solve backwards for the growth rate that price already assumes. That output is the Market-Implied Growth Rate, or g*. On its own it tells you what the market expects; it becomes useful when you compare it against what the business can actually fund. The Fundamental Growth Rate is that second number, calculated entirely from the financial statements (Return on Invested Capital × Reinvestment Rate) with no reference to the stock price. The difference between the two, in percentage points, is the Brina Gap. Because both estimates are derived independently, the gap between them is a structurally clean mispricing signal, separate from P/E ratios or earnings-based margin of safety. Both estimates are derived independently, so the gap between them is a structurally clean mispricing signal, separate from P/E ratios or earnings-based margin of safety. For FGPR: fundamental growth rate = -2.97%, market-implied growth rate = -3.39%, Brina Gap = +0.42%. Note: on high-quality franchises the gap tends to understate the actual return advantage due to market re-rating of franchise quality over time.
What is the Brina Gap framework?
The Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in. The Fundamental Growth Rate (ROIC × Reinvestment Rate) is derived entirely from financial statements. The Market-Implied Growth Rate is derived from the current enterprise value by reverse DCF — working backwards to find what growth rate the current price implies. A positive Gap means the market is pricing in slower growth than the business can actually deliver. A negative Gap means the price already assumes faster growth than the fundamentals support. Introduced by Fabio Brina (Zyberno, 2026) and validated across the complete, survivorship-free S&P 500 (2010–2024), where it ranked first among all pure valuation metrics tested and beats the classic Margin of Safety head-to-head.
What is the Double Discount quadrant?
The Double Discount quadrant (positive Margin of Safety, positive Brina Gap) is where both signals agree a stock is undervalued — cheap relative to historical Owner Earnings AND pricing in slower growth than the business can finance. In the full S&P 500 backtest (2010–2024), the Brina Gap's edge proved sharpest as a negative screen — catching value traps (59.5%; negative screen 58.9% overall); positive setups like this one predict most reliably in the Underestimated Growth cell and stable-ROIC sectors rather than across the whole market.
The Brina Gap is the direct output of two calculations run from financial statement data — ROIC × Reinvestment Rate for the fundamental side, and a reverse DCF on enterprise value for the market-implied side. The number reflects what the model produces, not what the market expects it to say. If the Gap is large and positive on a stock that looks expensive, that is what the math shows. The methodology is fully documented in the Brina Gap working paper (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20651608).
📊 Full FGPR Stock Report →
Complete financial analysis with 250+ metrics.
🛡 FGPR Margin of Safety →
How much discount are you getting vs intrinsic value?
💎 FGPR Intrinsic Value →
DCF valuation based on Owner Earnings.
📈 FGPR Expected Return →
Projected annual return if stock converges to intrinsic value.
📈 FGPR ROIC →
Return on Invested Capital — the key input to the Fundamental Growth Rate.
🎯 FGPR Earnings Surprise →
Standardized Unexpected Earnings (SUE) — is the company beating or missing its own earnings trend?
📖 Brina Gap Working Paper →
Full academic framework, formulas, and 86-observation backtest.