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ZYBERNO

Stock Report

Updated Aug 30, 2026

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)

Financial Services • NASDAQ

$29.08

Upstart Holdings Inc. is an American AI lending platform company headquartered in San Mateo, California, that uses artificial intelligence and machine learning to assess creditworthiness. The company's platform is used by banks and credit unions to make personal loan, auto loan, and home equity line of credit decisions, using more variables than traditional FICO-based models to approve more borrowers at lower interest rates.

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →

Is it a great business? Is it getting better?

14.0/100

POOR BUSINESS

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) scores 14/100 — concerning metrics indicating significant structural or financial risks.

📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +

The Zyberno Score answers one question: "Is this a quality business worth owning?" It's a 0-100 investment grade that evaluates business fundamentals across four critical dimensions, based on principles from Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, and Charlie Munger.

The 4 Core Categories (25 points each):

1. PROFITABILITY (25 pts)

Metrics: ROE, ROIC, Net Margin, Operating Margin
Thresholds: ROE >20% excellent • ROIC >20% excellent • Net Margin >20% excellent • Operating Margin >25% excellent

2. FINANCIAL STRENGTH (25 pts)

Metrics: Debt-to-Equity, Current Ratio, Interest Coverage, Altman Z-Score
Thresholds: D/E <0.3 excellent • Current Ratio >2.5 excellent • Interest Coverage >10x excellent • Altman Z >3.0 safe

3. CASH FLOW QUALITY (25 pts)

Metrics: Free Cash Flow, OCF vs Net Income, FCF Margin
Thresholds: Positive & growing FCF excellent • OCF/NI >1.2x excellent (cash earnings exceed accounting)

4. GROWTH & CONSISTENCY (25 pts)

Metrics: Revenue Growth, Net Income Growth, FCF Growth, Piotroski F-Score
Thresholds: Growth via log-linear regression • Piotroski 8-9 excellent, 6-7 good

Score Interpretation:

75-100

GREAT BUSINESS

65-74

GOOD BUSINESS

50-64

AVERAGE BUSINESS

30-49

WEAK BUSINESS

0-29

POOR BUSINESS

→ View full UPST quality analysis & detailed breakdown

VALUATION SIGNAL

MARGIN OF SAFETY

Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?

Margin of Safety unavailable — insufficient data for the owner-earnings DCF.

BRINA GAP ↗

Is the market underestimating or overestimating what this business is capable of going forward?

-28.8%

Market Overestimates

💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +

Margin of Safety measures how much discount or premium you're paying relative to a stock's intrinsic value. It's Benjamin Graham's core principle: the larger the margin, the lower your downside risk.

Formula: (Intrinsic Value − Current Price) ÷ Intrinsic Value × 100%

How We Calculate Intrinsic Value (DCF Method):

Step 1: Calculate current Owner Earnings (OCF − Maintenance CapEx)

Step 2: Calculate company-specific growth rate using log-linear regression on 16 quarters of Owner Earnings

Step 3: Project 10 years forward using the calculated growth rate

Step 4: Discount each year's cash flow to present value using 10% discount rate

Step 5: Calculate terminal value using 3% perpetual growth rate

Step 6: Sum all discounted cash flows = Intrinsic Value

What The Percentages Mean:

+50% or more

EXCELLENT — Very undervalued

+25% to +50%

GOOD — Attractive discount

0% to +25%

FAIR — Reasonable value

0% to -25%

CAUTION — Slight premium

-25% or worse

POOR — Overvalued

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get." — Warren Buffett

→ View full UPST valuation analysis · → View full UPST Brina Gap analysis

📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in.

Formula: Fundamental Growth Rate − Market-Implied Growth Rate

The Two Components:

Fundamental Growth Rate = ROIC × Reinvestment Rate

What the business can sustainably grow at based on how much it reinvests and what return it earns on that capital. Grounded in historical financials.

Market-Implied Growth Rate = Reverse DCF

The growth rate the current Enterprise Value implicitly assumes. Calculated by back-solving a 10-year DCF model (10% WACC, 3% terminal growth) until the present value of projected cash flows equals EV.

What The Gap Means:

Gap > +5% Market Underestimates — potential upside

+2% to +5% Slight Underestimate

-2% to +2% Fairly Priced — market consensus matches fundamentals

-5% to -2% Slight Overestimate

Gap < -5% Market Overestimates — price embeds optimism fundamentals don't support

A positive gap (market underestimates) combined with a positive Margin of Safety is the strongest combined signal — the business is both cheap historically and forward economics are stronger than the price suggests.

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):POOR (7.9%)

Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):CRITICAL (2.54x)

Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):POOR (4.0%)

Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):CRITICAL (2.1%)

📊 Valuation Trilogy

Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis

Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis

Zyberno's Verdict

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) stock report — Zyberno Score 14/100 (POOR BUSINESS). Full financial analysis on Zyberno.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) shows a Brina Gap of -28.8%, which weakens the case: based on the company's ROIC (2.1%) and reinvestment rate (-49.8%), the business can fundamentally grow at -1.0% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects 27.8%.

Over the trailing twelve months, UPST generated -$270.63M in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $100.06M returned via share buybacks, $3.10M invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: -49.8%.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:29.08

Market Cap:$2.81B

Valuation Multiples (4)

P/E Ratio:

55.92x

📊 Click to view full UPST P/E analysis →

P/B Ratio:3.52x

P/S Ratio:2.25x

Peg Ratio:-999.00x

Enterprise Metrics (2)

Enterprise Value:$4.36B

Ev Ebitda Ratio:64.01x

Price Action & Momentum (3)

12-1 Momentum:

-67.1% (10th pctile)

📈 Click to view full UPST Momentum analysis →

Momentum Percentile:10 / 100

% of 52-Week High:37.8%

B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (7)

ROE:

7.9%

📊 Click to view full UPST ROE analysis →

ROA:2.0%

Roic:

2.1%

📊 Click to view full UPST ROIC analysis →

Reinvestment Rate:-49.8%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-1.0%

Market-Implied Growth Rate:27.8%

Brina Gap:

-28.8%

☷ Click to view full UPST Brina Gap analysis →

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:4.0%

Net Margin Ttm:4.8%

Ebitda Margin:5.5%

TTM Performance (2)

Operating Margin Ttm:4.0%

Net Margin Ttm:4.8%

Yield Metrics (2)

Earnings Yield:$1.79

Dividend Yield:0.0%

C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Earnings Surprise (SUE) (3)

Earnings Surprise (SUE):

+0.25

📊 Click to view full UPST Earnings Surprise analysis →

EPS Surprise vs Expected:668.9%

Latest Earnings Filed:2026-08-04

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):33.2%

Earnings Growth (Linear) (1)

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):93.4%

Cash Flow Growth (Linear) (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-1.8%

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-1.9%

Operating Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):100.0%

D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:0.19x

Quick Ratio:0.19x

Cash Ratio:0.19x

Leverage Analysis (3)

Debt To Equity Ttm:2.54x

Debt-to-Equity Ratio:2.54x

Debt To Ebitda:29.49x

Coverage Ratios (2)

Interest Coverage Ratio:0.44x

Times Interest Earned:0.44

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:-1,917,828,000.00

Cash And Cash Equivalents:455,957,000.00

Long Term Debt:$2.00B

Net Debt:$1.55B

DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS

A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $1.25B

Linear Growth: 33.2%

📊 Click to view full UPST Revenue analysis & methodology →

Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$0.00

Profitability Breakdown (2)

$0.00

Operating income TTM: $49.71M

Linear Growth: 100.0%

📊 Click to view full UPST Operating Income analysis & methodology →

Bottom Line Performance (3)

Net income TTM: $60.33M

Linear Growth: 93.4%

📊 Click to view full UPST Net Income analysis & methodology →

Income Before Tax:$54.30M

Ebitda Ttm:68,156,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:1,196,411,000.00

R And D Expense:304,911,000.00

Sga Expense:285,057,000.00

Income Tax Expense:$1.35M

Interest Expense:97,276,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:83.6%

Sga To Revenue Percentage:78.2%

Ebitda Margin:5.5%

B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$3.17B

Current Assets:$455.96M

Ppe Net:49,421,000.00

Goodwill:67,062,000.00

Intangible Assets:$7.72M

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:2,373,785,000.00

Current Liabilities:2,373,785,000.00

Long Term Debt:$2.00B

Short Term Debt:$6.88M

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:$797.49M

Retained Earnings:-$347.66M

Common Stock:700,000,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:0.00

Inventory:0.00

Accounts Payable:0.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:0.00

Stock Based Compensation:44,466,000.00

C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

Operating cash flow TTM: -$267.54M

Linear Growth: -1.9%

Free cash flow TTM: -$270.63M

Linear Growth: -1.8%

📊 Click to view full UPST Free Cash Flow analysis & methodology →

Investment Activities (2)

Investing Cash Flow:$876.00K

Capital Expenditures Ttm:3,097,000.00

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:$6.74M

Dividends Paid Ttm:0.00

Stock Repurchase:100,057,000.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:0.00

Long Term Debt Issuance:$0.00

Long Term Debt Repayments:$0.00

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:18,450,000.00

DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS

A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (3)

EPS (Basic TTM):0.63

Eps diluted TTM: $0.52

Linear Growth: 100.0%

📊 Click to view full UPST EPS analysis & methodology →

Earnings Per Share Ttm:$0.62

Revenue & Cash Per Share (2)

Sales Per Share Ttm:12.90

Operating Cash Flow Per Share:-$1.53

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:$8.26

Cash Per Share:4.72

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:-999.00x

B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:0.41x

Working Capital Turnover Ttm:-999.00x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:-999.00x

Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:-999.00

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:-999.00x

Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:-999.00

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:-999.00

Cash Conversion Cycle:-999.00

C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:0.00

Quality Score:45.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x

Volatility Category:unknown

DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

A. Value Investment Framework

Owner Earnings Analysis (1)

-$270.63M

Damodaran Growth Analysis (4)

Reinvestment Rate:-49.8%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-1.0%

Market-Implied Growth Rate:27.8%

Brina Gap:

-28.8%

☷ Click to view full UPST Brina Gap analysis →

B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (3)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):33.2%

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):93.4%

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):100.0%

Cash Flow Growth Rates (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-1.8%

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-1.9%

Other Growth Rates (1)

Book Value Growth Rate (Linear):0.5%

C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:UPST

Company Name:Upstart Holdings, Inc.

Sector:Financial Services

Industry:Finance Services

Exchange:NASDAQ

Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A

Price Category:medium

Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:96.57M

Shares Outstanding Basic:96.57M

Shares Outstanding Diluted:109.72M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0

Last Updated:2026-08-30 21:11:55 UTC

Data Timestamp:2026-08-30T21:11:55.677842