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ZYBERNO

Stock Report

Updated Aug 31, 2026

TILLY'S, INC. (TLYS)

NYSE

$3.96

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →

Is it a great business? Is it getting better?

25.0/100

POOR BUSINESS

TILLY'S, INC. (TLYS) scores 25/100 — concerning metrics indicating significant structural or financial risks.

📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +

The Zyberno Score answers one question: "Is this a quality business worth owning?" It's a 0-100 investment grade that evaluates business fundamentals across four critical dimensions, based on principles from Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, and Charlie Munger.

The 4 Core Categories (25 points each):

1. PROFITABILITY (25 pts)

Metrics: ROE, ROIC, Net Margin, Operating Margin
Thresholds: ROE >20% excellent • ROIC >20% excellent • Net Margin >20% excellent • Operating Margin >25% excellent

2. FINANCIAL STRENGTH (25 pts)

Metrics: Debt-to-Equity, Current Ratio, Interest Coverage, Altman Z-Score
Thresholds: D/E <0.3 excellent • Current Ratio >2.5 excellent • Interest Coverage >10x excellent • Altman Z >3.0 safe

3. CASH FLOW QUALITY (25 pts)

Metrics: Free Cash Flow, OCF vs Net Income, FCF Margin
Thresholds: Positive & growing FCF excellent • OCF/NI >1.2x excellent (cash earnings exceed accounting)

4. GROWTH & CONSISTENCY (25 pts)

Metrics: Revenue Growth, Net Income Growth, FCF Growth, Piotroski F-Score
Thresholds: Growth via log-linear regression • Piotroski 8-9 excellent, 6-7 good

Score Interpretation:

75-100

GREAT BUSINESS

65-74

GOOD BUSINESS

50-64

AVERAGE BUSINESS

30-49

WEAK BUSINESS

0-29

POOR BUSINESS

→ View full TLYS quality analysis & detailed breakdown

VALUATION SIGNAL

MARGIN OF SAFETY

Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?

-35.5%

Overvalued

Growth gap unavailable — insufficient data for reverse DCF calculation.

🎯 Expected Annual Return →

6.7%

Margin of Safety convergence — your return if the market re-prices to intrinsic value (5-yr annualised)

0.3%

Yield + growth — what the business alone earns you, even if the market never re-rates

💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +

Margin of Safety measures how much discount or premium you're paying relative to a stock's intrinsic value. It's Benjamin Graham's core principle: the larger the margin, the lower your downside risk.

Formula: (Intrinsic Value − Current Price) ÷ Intrinsic Value × 100%

How We Calculate Intrinsic Value (DCF Method):

Step 1: Calculate current Owner Earnings (OCF − Maintenance CapEx)

Step 2: Calculate company-specific growth rate using log-linear regression on 16 quarters of Owner Earnings

Step 3: Project 10 years forward using the calculated growth rate

Step 4: Discount each year's cash flow to present value using 10% discount rate

Step 5: Calculate terminal value using 3% perpetual growth rate

Step 6: Sum all discounted cash flows = Intrinsic Value

What The Percentages Mean:

+50% or more

EXCELLENT — Very undervalued

+25% to +50%

GOOD — Attractive discount

0% to +25%

FAIR — Reasonable value

0% to -25%

CAUTION — Slight premium

-25% or worse

POOR — Overvalued

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get." — Warren Buffett

→ View full TLYS valuation analysis · → View full TLYS Brina Gap analysis

📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in.

Formula: Fundamental Growth Rate − Market-Implied Growth Rate

The Two Components:

Fundamental Growth Rate = ROIC × Reinvestment Rate

What the business can sustainably grow at based on how much it reinvests and what return it earns on that capital. Grounded in historical financials.

Market-Implied Growth Rate = Reverse DCF

The growth rate the current Enterprise Value implicitly assumes. Calculated by back-solving a 10-year DCF model (10% WACC, 3% terminal growth) until the present value of projected cash flows equals EV.

What The Gap Means:

Gap > +5% Market Underestimates — potential upside

+2% to +5% Slight Underestimate

-2% to +2% Fairly Priced — market consensus matches fundamentals

-5% to -2% Slight Overestimate

Gap < -5% Market Overestimates — price embeds optimism fundamentals don't support

A positive gap (market underestimates) combined with a positive Margin of Safety is the strongest combined signal — the business is both cheap historically and forward economics are stronger than the price suggests.

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):CRITICAL (-27.2%)

Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):CRITICAL (4.52x)

Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):CRITICAL (-4.3%)

Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):CRITICAL (-9.0%)

📊 Valuation Trilogy

Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis

Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis

Zyberno's Verdict

TILLY'S, INC. (TLYS) stock report — Zyberno Score 25/100 (POOR BUSINESS), Margin of Safety -35.5%, 7% expected annual return. Full financial analysis on Zyberno.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, TILLY'S, INC. (TLYS) trades at $3.96 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $2.92 — a -35.5% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $3.78M TTM, projected at 13.7% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of 6.7% annually.

Over the trailing twelve months, TLYS generated $3.78M in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $4.55M invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: 31.8%. Owner Earnings have grown at 13.7% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:3.96

Market Cap:$119.27M

Valuation Multiples (3)

P/B Ratio:1.53x

P/S Ratio:0.21x

Peg Ratio:-999.00x

Enterprise Metrics (2)

Enterprise Value:$248.97M

Pfcf Ratio:31.92x

Price Action & Momentum (1)

% of 52-Week High:67.1%

B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (5)

ROE:

-27.2%

📊 Click to view full TLYS ROE analysis →

ROA:-6.9%

Roic:

-9.0%

📊 Click to view full TLYS ROIC analysis →

Reinvestment Rate:31.8%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-2.8%

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:-4.3%

Net Margin Ttm:-3.9%

Ebitda Margin:-2.6%

TTM Performance (3)

Gross Margin Ttm:31.4%

Operating Margin Ttm:-4.3%

Net Margin Ttm:-3.9%

Yield Metrics (3)

Earnings Yield:-$999.00

Owner Earnings Yield:$3.13

Dividend Yield:0.0%

C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Earnings Surprise (SUE) (3)

Earnings Surprise (SUE):

-1.28

📊 Click to view full TLYS Earnings Surprise analysis →

EPS Surprise vs Expected:-65.2%

Latest Earnings Filed:2021-04-01

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):-6.0%

Earnings Growth (Linear) (1)

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-10.9%

Cash Flow Growth (Linear) (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):16.2%

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):1.6%

Operating Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):-22.3%

D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:1.12x

Quick Ratio:0.49x

Cash Ratio:0.28x

Leverage Analysis (3)

Debt To Equity Ttm:4.52x

Debt-to-Equity Ratio:4.52x

Debt To Ebitda:-999.00x

Coverage Ratios (1)

Times Interest Earned:-999.00

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:13,476,000.00

Cash And Cash Equivalents:31,244,000.00

Long Term Debt:$115.63M

Net Debt:$129.70M

DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS

A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $570.69M

Linear Growth: -6.0%

📊 Click to view full TLYS Revenue analysis & methodology →

Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$391.44M

Profitability Breakdown (2)

Gross profit TTM: $179.25M

Linear Growth: -5.2%

📊 Click to view full TLYS Gross Profit analysis & methodology →

Operating income TTM: -$24.76M

Linear Growth: -22.3%

📊 Click to view full TLYS Operating Income analysis & methodology →

Bottom Line Performance (3)

Net income TTM: -$22.24M

Linear Growth: -10.9%

📊 Click to view full TLYS Net Income analysis & methodology →

Income Before Tax:-$22.28M

Ebitda Ttm:-14,745,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:0.00

R And D Expense:0.00

Sga Expense:184,003,000.00

Income Tax Expense:-$41.00K

Interest Expense:0.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:0.0%

Sga To Revenue Percentage:147.5%

Ebitda Margin:-2.6%

B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$317.13M

Current Assets:$126.01M

Ppe Net:279,240,000.00

Goodwill:0.00

Intangible Assets:$0.00

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:239,358,000.00

Current Liabilities:112,534,000.00

Long Term Debt:$115.63M

Short Term Debt:$45.31M

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:$77.77M

Retained Earnings:-$99.60M

Common Stock:0.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:6,086,000.00

Inventory:70,703,000.00

Accounts Payable:28,434,000.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:12,985,000.00

Stock Based Compensation:503,000.00

C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

Operating cash flow TTM: $8.34M

Linear Growth: 1.6%

Free cash flow TTM: $3.78M

Linear Growth: 16.2%

📊 Click to view full TLYS Free Cash Flow analysis & methodology →

Investment Activities (2)

Investing Cash Flow:-$11.25M

Capital Expenditures Ttm:4,554,000.00

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:$58.00K

Dividends Paid Ttm:0.00

Stock Repurchase:0.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:0.00

Long Term Debt Issuance:$0.00

Long Term Debt Repayments:$0.00

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:10,015,000.00

DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS

A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (1)

Earnings Per Share Ttm:-$0.74

Revenue & Cash Per Share (3)

Sales Per Share Ttm:18.95

Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$0.14

Fcf Per Share Ttm:0.13

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:$2.58

Cash Per Share:1.04

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:-999.00x

B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:1.77x

Working Capital Turnover Ttm:42.35x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:93.77x

Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:3.89

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:5.54x

Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:65.93

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:26.51

Cash Conversion Cycle:43.31

C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:20.00

Quality Score:30.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x

Volatility Category:unknown

DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

A. Value Investment Framework

Owner Earnings Analysis (3)

Owner earnings TTM: $3.78M

Linear Growth: 13.7%

📊 Click to view full TLYS Owner Earnings analysis & methodology →

Owner Earnings Per Share:$0.13

Owner Earnings Yield:$3.13

Growth Assessment (1)

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:$13.68

Damodaran Growth Analysis (2)

Reinvestment Rate:31.8%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-2.8%

Intrinsic Value Models (1)

Intrinsic Value:

$88.01M

📊 Click to view full TLYS DCF valuation →

Margin of Safety (1)

Margin Of Safety:

-35.5%

📊 Click to view full TLYS valuation analysis →

Return Scenarios (2)

Theoretical 5-Year Return:

6.7%

📊 Click to view full TLYS expected return analysis →

Forward Expected Return (Yield + Growth):

0.3%

📊 Click to view full TLYS expected return analysis →

Investment Assessment (1)

Buffett Assessment:Overvalued

B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (3)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):-6.0%

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-10.9%

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):-22.3%

Cash Flow Growth Rates (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):16.2%

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):1.6%

Other Growth Rates (3)

Gross Profit Growth Rate (Linear):-5.2%

Book Value Growth Rate (Linear):-20.2%

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:$13.68

C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:TLYS

Company Name:TILLY'S, INC.

Sector:Unknown

Industry:Apparel Retail

Exchange:NYSE

Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A

Price Category:low

Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:30.12M

Shares Outstanding Basic:30.12M

Shares Outstanding Diluted:30.12M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0

Last Updated:2026-08-31 11:35:02 UTC

Data Timestamp:2026-08-19T04:11:58.829944