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ZYBERNO

Stock Report

Updated Sep 2, 2026

Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A)

Consumer Staples • NYSE

$47.96

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →

Is it a great business? Is it getting better?

30.0/100

WEAK BUSINESS

Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A) scores 30/100 — weak fundamentals with mixed indicators requiring careful analysis before acting.

📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +

The Zyberno Score answers one question: "Is this a quality business worth owning?" It's a 0-100 investment grade that evaluates business fundamentals across four critical dimensions, based on principles from Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, and Charlie Munger.

The 4 Core Categories (25 points each):

1. PROFITABILITY (25 pts)

Metrics: ROE, ROIC, Net Margin, Operating Margin
Thresholds: ROE >20% excellent • ROIC >20% excellent • Net Margin >20% excellent • Operating Margin >25% excellent

2. FINANCIAL STRENGTH (25 pts)

Metrics: Debt-to-Equity, Current Ratio, Interest Coverage, Altman Z-Score
Thresholds: D/E <0.3 excellent • Current Ratio >2.5 excellent • Interest Coverage >10x excellent • Altman Z >3.0 safe

3. CASH FLOW QUALITY (25 pts)

Metrics: Free Cash Flow, OCF vs Net Income, FCF Margin
Thresholds: Positive & growing FCF excellent • OCF/NI >1.2x excellent (cash earnings exceed accounting)

4. GROWTH & CONSISTENCY (25 pts)

Metrics: Revenue Growth, Net Income Growth, FCF Growth, Piotroski F-Score
Thresholds: Growth via log-linear regression • Piotroski 8-9 excellent, 6-7 good

Score Interpretation:

75-100

GREAT BUSINESS

65-74

GOOD BUSINESS

50-64

AVERAGE BUSINESS

30-49

WEAK BUSINESS

0-29

POOR BUSINESS

→ View full TAP-A quality analysis & detailed breakdown

VALUATION SIGNAL

MARGIN OF SAFETY

Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?

+64.6%

Undervalued

Growth gap unavailable — insufficient data for reverse DCF calculation.

🎯 Expected Annual Return →

43.0%

Margin of Safety convergence — your return if the market re-prices to intrinsic value (5-yr annualised)

14.6%

Yield + growth — what the business alone earns you, even if the market never re-rates

💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +

Margin of Safety measures how much discount or premium you're paying relative to a stock's intrinsic value. It's Benjamin Graham's core principle: the larger the margin, the lower your downside risk.

Formula: (Intrinsic Value − Current Price) ÷ Intrinsic Value × 100%

How We Calculate Intrinsic Value (DCF Method):

Step 1: Calculate current Owner Earnings (OCF − Maintenance CapEx)

Step 2: Calculate company-specific growth rate using log-linear regression on 16 quarters of Owner Earnings

Step 3: Project 10 years forward using the calculated growth rate

Step 4: Discount each year's cash flow to present value using 10% discount rate

Step 5: Calculate terminal value using 3% perpetual growth rate

Step 6: Sum all discounted cash flows = Intrinsic Value

What The Percentages Mean:

+50% or more

EXCELLENT — Very undervalued

+25% to +50%

GOOD — Attractive discount

0% to +25%

FAIR — Reasonable value

0% to -25%

CAUTION — Slight premium

-25% or worse

POOR — Overvalued

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get." — Warren Buffett

→ View full TAP-A valuation analysis · → View full TAP-A Brina Gap analysis

📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in.

Formula: Fundamental Growth Rate − Market-Implied Growth Rate

The Two Components:

Fundamental Growth Rate = ROIC × Reinvestment Rate

What the business can sustainably grow at based on how much it reinvests and what return it earns on that capital. Grounded in historical financials.

Market-Implied Growth Rate = Reverse DCF

The growth rate the current Enterprise Value implicitly assumes. Calculated by back-solving a 10-year DCF model (10% WACC, 3% terminal growth) until the present value of projected cash flows equals EV.

What The Gap Means:

Gap > +5% Market Underestimates — potential upside

+2% to +5% Slight Underestimate

-2% to +2% Fairly Priced — market consensus matches fundamentals

-5% to -2% Slight Overestimate

Gap < -5% Market Overestimates — price embeds optimism fundamentals don't support

A positive gap (market underestimates) combined with a positive Margin of Safety is the strongest combined signal — the business is both cheap historically and forward economics are stronger than the price suggests.

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):CRITICAL (-13.2%)

Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):AVERAGE (0.77x)

Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):CRITICAL (-10.2%)

Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):CRITICAL (-7.0%)

📊 Valuation Trilogy

Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis

Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis

Zyberno's Verdict

Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A) stock report — Zyberno Score 30/100 (WEAK BUSINESS), Margin of Safety +64.6%, 43% expected annual return. Full financial analysis on Zyberno.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A) trades at $47.96 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $135.36 — a +64.6% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $1.13B TTM, projected at 13.0% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of 43.0% annually.

Over the trailing twelve months, TAP-A generated $1.13B in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $315.10M returned via share buybacks, $367.70M paid as dividends, $716.60M invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: -2.5%. Owner Earnings have grown at 13.0% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:47.96

Market Cap:$8.99B

Valuation Multiples (3)

P/B Ratio:0.87x

P/S Ratio:0.64x

Peg Ratio:-999.00x

Enterprise Metrics (2)

Enterprise Value:$14.55B

Pfcf Ratio:7.33x

Price Action & Momentum (3)

12-1 Momentum:

-19.9% (32th pctile)

📈 Click to view full TAP-A Momentum analysis →

Momentum Percentile:32 / 100

% of 52-Week High:87.5%

B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (5)

ROE:

-13.2%

📊 Click to view full TAP-A ROE analysis →

ROA:-6.1%

Roic:

-7.0%

📊 Click to view full TAP-A ROIC analysis →

Reinvestment Rate:-2.5%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):0.2%

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:-10.2%

Net Margin Ttm:-10.6%

Ebitda Margin:-3.9%

TTM Performance (3)

Gross Margin Ttm:32.2%

Operating Margin Ttm:-10.2%

Net Margin Ttm:-10.6%

Yield Metrics (3)

Earnings Yield:-$17.70

Owner Earnings Yield:$14.39

Dividend Yield:4.7%

C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Earnings Surprise (SUE) (3)

Earnings Surprise (SUE):

-0.03

📊 Click to view full TAP-A Earnings Surprise analysis →

EPS Surprise vs Expected:-8.2%

Latest Earnings Filed:2026-08-06

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):-0.1%

Earnings Growth (Linear) (1)

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):40.4%

Cash Flow Growth (Linear) (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):10.3%

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):33.3%

Operating Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):28.8%

D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:0.88x

Quick Ratio:0.72x

Cash Ratio:0.41x

Leverage Analysis (3)

Debt To Equity Ttm:0.77x

Debt-to-Equity Ratio:0.77x

Debt To Ebitda:-999.00x

Coverage Ratios (2)

Interest Coverage Ratio:-9.15x

Times Interest Earned:-9.15

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:-628,600,000.00

Cash And Cash Equivalents:2,128,100,000.00

Long Term Debt:$5.67B

Net Debt:$5.55B

DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS

A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $13.95B

Linear Growth: -10.0%

📊 Click to view full TAP-A Revenue analysis & methodology →

Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$7.45B

Profitability Breakdown (2)

Gross profit TTM: $4.49B

Linear Growth: 4.5%

📊 Click to view full TAP-A Gross Profit analysis & methodology →

Operating income TTM: -$1.42B

Linear Growth: 28.8%

📊 Click to view full TAP-A Operating Income analysis & methodology →

Bottom Line Performance (3)

Net income TTM: -$1.48B

Linear Growth: 40.4%

📊 Click to view full TAP-A Net Income analysis & methodology →

Income Before Tax:-$1.68B

Ebitda Ttm:-544,600,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:0.00

R And D Expense:0.00

Sga Expense:2,709,200,000.00

Income Tax Expense:-$145.70M

Interest Expense:255,400,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:0.0%

Sga To Revenue Percentage:75.2%

Ebitda Margin:-3.9%

B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$24.36B

Current Assets:$4.58B

Ppe Net:0.00

Goodwill:2,144,800,000.00

Intangible Assets:$11.84B

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:13,950,300,000.00

Current Liabilities:5,212,100,000.00

Long Term Debt:$5.67B

Short Term Debt:$2.01B

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:$10.31B

Retained Earnings:$5.93B

Common Stock:0.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:1,004,100,000.00

Inventory:849,100,000.00

Accounts Payable:455,500,000.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:0.00

Stock Based Compensation:7,800,000.00

C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

Operating cash flow TTM: $1.78B

Linear Growth: 33.3%

Free cash flow TTM: $1.07B

Linear Growth: 10.3%

📊 Click to view full TAP-A Free Cash Flow analysis & methodology →

Investment Activities (2)

Investing Cash Flow:-$187.00M

Capital Expenditures Ttm:716,600,000.00

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:-$410.20M

Dividends Paid Ttm:367,700,000.00

Stock Repurchase:315,100,000.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:0.00

Long Term Debt Issuance:$863.70M

Long Term Debt Repayments:$12.80M

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:876,800,000.00

DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS

A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (3)

EPS (Basic TTM):-7.37

Eps diluted TTM: -$7.39

Linear Growth: 45.5%

📊 Click to view full TAP-A EPS analysis & methodology →

Earnings Per Share Ttm:-$7.89

Revenue & Cash Per Share (3)

Sales Per Share Ttm:74.42

Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$9.52

Fcf Per Share Ttm:5.69

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:$54.97

Cash Per Share:11.35

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:-999.00x

B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:0.58x

Working Capital Turnover Ttm:-999.00x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:13.90x

Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:26.26

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:8.77x

Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:41.62

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:22.33

Cash Conversion Cycle:45.56

C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:40.00

Quality Score:40.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x

Volatility Category:unknown

DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

A. Value Investment Framework

Owner Earnings Analysis (3)

Owner earnings TTM: $1.13B

Linear Growth: 13.0%

📊 Click to view full TAP-A Owner Earnings analysis & methodology →

Owner Earnings Per Share:$6.01

Owner Earnings Yield:$14.39

Growth Assessment (1)

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:$12.99

Damodaran Growth Analysis (2)

Reinvestment Rate:-2.5%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):0.2%

Intrinsic Value Models (1)

Intrinsic Value:

$25.38B

📊 Click to view full TAP-A DCF valuation →

Margin of Safety (1)

Margin Of Safety:

64.6%

📊 Click to view full TAP-A valuation analysis →

Return Scenarios (2)

Theoretical 5-Year Return:

43.0%

📊 Click to view full TAP-A expected return analysis →

Forward Expected Return (Yield + Growth):

14.6%

📊 Click to view full TAP-A expected return analysis →

Investment Assessment (1)

Buffett Assessment:Excellent margin of safety

B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (3)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):-0.1%

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):40.4%

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):28.8%

Cash Flow Growth Rates (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):10.3%

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):33.3%

Other Growth Rates (3)

Gross Profit Growth Rate (Linear):4.5%

Book Value Growth Rate (Linear):-5.3%

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:$12.99

C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:TAP-A

Company Name:Molson Coors Beverage Company

Sector:Consumer Staples

Industry:Food & Beverages

Exchange:NYSE

Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A

Price Category:medium

Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:187.50M

Shares Outstanding Basic:187.50M

Shares Outstanding Diluted:187.70M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0

Last Updated:2026-09-02 02:09:42 UTC

Data Timestamp:2026-08-24T00:53:34.369599