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ZYBERNO

Stock Report

Updated Aug 31, 2026

CHICAGO ATLANTIC REAL ESTATE FINANCE, INC. (REFI)

Financial Services • NASDAQ

$10.68

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →

Is it a great business? Is it getting better?

29.0/100

POOR BUSINESS

CHICAGO ATLANTIC REAL ESTATE FINANCE, INC. (REFI) scores 29/100 — concerning metrics indicating significant structural or financial risks.

📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +

The Zyberno Score answers one question: "Is this a quality business worth owning?" It's a 0-100 investment grade that evaluates business fundamentals across four critical dimensions, based on principles from Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, and Charlie Munger.

The 4 Core Categories (25 points each):

1. PROFITABILITY (25 pts)

Metrics: ROE, ROIC, Net Margin, Operating Margin
Thresholds: ROE >20% excellent • ROIC >20% excellent • Net Margin >20% excellent • Operating Margin >25% excellent

2. FINANCIAL STRENGTH (25 pts)

Metrics: Debt-to-Equity, Current Ratio, Interest Coverage, Altman Z-Score
Thresholds: D/E <0.3 excellent • Current Ratio >2.5 excellent • Interest Coverage >10x excellent • Altman Z >3.0 safe

3. CASH FLOW QUALITY (25 pts)

Metrics: Free Cash Flow, OCF vs Net Income, FCF Margin
Thresholds: Positive & growing FCF excellent • OCF/NI >1.2x excellent (cash earnings exceed accounting)

4. GROWTH & CONSISTENCY (25 pts)

Metrics: Revenue Growth, Net Income Growth, FCF Growth, Piotroski F-Score
Thresholds: Growth via log-linear regression • Piotroski 8-9 excellent, 6-7 good

Score Interpretation:

75-100

GREAT BUSINESS

65-74

GOOD BUSINESS

50-64

AVERAGE BUSINESS

30-49

WEAK BUSINESS

0-29

POOR BUSINESS

→ View full REFI quality analysis & detailed breakdown

VALUATION SIGNAL

MARGIN OF SAFETY

Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?

Margin of Safety unavailable — insufficient data for the owner-earnings DCF.

BRINA GAP ↗

Is the market underestimating or overestimating what this business is capable of going forward?

-4.5%

Slight Overestimate

💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +

Margin of Safety measures how much discount or premium you're paying relative to a stock's intrinsic value. It's Benjamin Graham's core principle: the larger the margin, the lower your downside risk.

Formula: (Intrinsic Value − Current Price) ÷ Intrinsic Value × 100%

How We Calculate Intrinsic Value (DCF Method):

Step 1: Calculate current Owner Earnings (OCF − Maintenance CapEx)

Step 2: Calculate company-specific growth rate using log-linear regression on 16 quarters of Owner Earnings

Step 3: Project 10 years forward using the calculated growth rate

Step 4: Discount each year's cash flow to present value using 10% discount rate

Step 5: Calculate terminal value using 3% perpetual growth rate

Step 6: Sum all discounted cash flows = Intrinsic Value

What The Percentages Mean:

+50% or more

EXCELLENT — Very undervalued

+25% to +50%

GOOD — Attractive discount

0% to +25%

FAIR — Reasonable value

0% to -25%

CAUTION — Slight premium

-25% or worse

POOR — Overvalued

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get." — Warren Buffett

→ View full REFI valuation analysis · → View full REFI Brina Gap analysis

📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in.

Formula: Fundamental Growth Rate − Market-Implied Growth Rate

The Two Components:

Fundamental Growth Rate = ROIC × Reinvestment Rate

What the business can sustainably grow at based on how much it reinvests and what return it earns on that capital. Grounded in historical financials.

Market-Implied Growth Rate = Reverse DCF

The growth rate the current Enterprise Value implicitly assumes. Calculated by back-solving a 10-year DCF model (10% WACC, 3% terminal growth) until the present value of projected cash flows equals EV.

What The Gap Means:

Gap > +5% Market Underestimates — potential upside

+2% to +5% Slight Underestimate

-2% to +2% Fairly Priced — market consensus matches fundamentals

-5% to -2% Slight Overestimate

Gap < -5% Market Overestimates — price embeds optimism fundamentals don't support

A positive gap (market underestimates) combined with a positive Margin of Safety is the strongest combined signal — the business is both cheap historically and forward economics are stronger than the price suggests.

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):POOR (9.6%)

Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):EXCELLENT (0.17x)

Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):EXCELLENT (47.7%)

Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):POOR (5.3%)

📊 Valuation Trilogy

Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis

Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis

Zyberno's Verdict

CHICAGO ATLANTIC REAL ESTATE FINANCE, INC. (REFI) stock report — Zyberno Score 29/100 (POOR BUSINESS). Full financial analysis on Zyberno.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, CHICAGO ATLANTIC REAL ESTATE FINANCE, INC. (REFI) shows a Brina Gap of -4.5%, which weakens the case: based on the company's ROIC (5.3%) and reinvestment rate (0.0%), the business can fundamentally grow at 0.0% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects 4.5%.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:10.68

Market Cap:$226.87M

Valuation Multiples (4)

P/E Ratio:

7.80x

📊 Click to view full REFI P/E analysis →

P/B Ratio:0.75x

P/S Ratio:3.68x

Peg Ratio:-999.00x

Enterprise Metrics (2)

Enterprise Value:$483.17M

Ev Ebitda Ratio:16.43x

Price Action & Momentum (3)

12-1 Momentum:

-9.0% (28th pctile)

📈 Click to view full REFI Momentum analysis →

Momentum Percentile:28 / 100

% of 52-Week High:73.3%

B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (7)

ROE:

9.6%

📊 Click to view full REFI ROE analysis →

ROA:6.7%

Roic:

5.3%

📊 Click to view full REFI ROIC analysis →

Reinvestment Rate:0.0%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):0.0%

Market-Implied Growth Rate:4.5%

Brina Gap:

-4.5%

☷ Click to view full REFI Brina Gap analysis →

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:47.7%

Net Margin Ttm:47.7%

Ebitda Margin:47.7%

TTM Performance (2)

Operating Margin Ttm:47.7%

Net Margin Ttm:47.7%

Yield Metrics (2)

Earnings Yield:$13.22

Dividend Yield:18.2%

C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Earnings Surprise (SUE) (3)

Earnings Surprise (SUE):

-0.40

📊 Click to view full REFI Earnings Surprise analysis →

EPS Surprise vs Expected:-10.7%

Latest Earnings Filed:2026-08-11

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):0.4%

Earnings Growth (Linear) (1)

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-7.1%

Cash Flow Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):9.8%

Operating Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):-7.1%

D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:0.08x

Quick Ratio:0.08x

Cash Ratio:0.08x

Leverage Analysis (3)

Debt To Equity Ttm:0.17x

Debt-to-Equity Ratio:0.17x

Debt To Ebitda:9.17x

Coverage Ratios (2)

Interest Coverage Ratio:0.67x

Times Interest Earned:0.67

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:-146,699,349.00

Cash And Cash Equivalents:13,351,699.00

Long Term Debt:$49.45M

Net Debt:$256.30M

DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS

A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $61.71M

Linear Growth: 42.0%

📊 Click to view full REFI Revenue analysis & methodology →

Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$0.00

Profitability Breakdown (2)

$0.00

Operating income TTM: $29.41M

Linear Growth: -7.1%

📊 Click to view full REFI Operating Income analysis & methodology →

Bottom Line Performance (3)

Net income TTM: $29.41M

Linear Growth: -7.1%

📊 Click to view full REFI Net Income analysis & methodology →

Income Before Tax:$29.41M

Ebitda Ttm:29,405,481.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:24,046,729.00

R And D Expense:0.00

Sga Expense:5,517,730.00

Income Tax Expense:$0.00

Interest Expense:53,882,210.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:0.0%

Sga To Revenue Percentage:36.3%

Ebitda Margin:47.7%

B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$461.70M

Current Assets:$13.35M

Ppe Net:0.00

Goodwill:0.00

Intangible Assets:$0.00

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:160,051,048.00

Current Liabilities:160,051,048.00

Long Term Debt:$49.45M

Short Term Debt:$220.20M

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:$301.65M

Retained Earnings:-$23.51M

Common Stock:100,000,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:0.00

Inventory:0.00

Accounts Payable:1,039,790.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:0.00

Stock Based Compensation:957,578.00

C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

Operating cash flow TTM: $24.33M

Linear Growth: 9.8%

$0.00

Investment Activities (1)

Investing Cash Flow:$1.73M

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:$8.01M

Dividends Paid Ttm:40,146,203.00

Stock Repurchase:0.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:0.00

Long Term Debt Issuance:$0.00

Long Term Debt Repayments:$0.00

DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS

A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (3)

EPS (Basic TTM):1.39

Eps diluted TTM: $1.37

Linear Growth: -12.8%

📊 Click to view full REFI EPS analysis & methodology →

Earnings Per Share Ttm:$1.38

Revenue & Cash Per Share (2)

Sales Per Share Ttm:2.91

Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$1.36

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:$14.20

Cash Per Share:0.63

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:170.31x

B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:0.14x

Working Capital Turnover Ttm:-999.00x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:-999.00x

Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:-999.00

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:-999.00x

Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:-999.00

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:6.15

Cash Conversion Cycle:-2,004.15

C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:60.00

Quality Score:75.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x

Volatility Category:unknown

DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

A. Value Investment Framework

Damodaran Growth Analysis (4)

Reinvestment Rate:0.0%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):0.0%

Market-Implied Growth Rate:4.5%

Brina Gap:

-4.5%

☷ Click to view full REFI Brina Gap analysis →

B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (3)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):0.4%

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-7.1%

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):-7.1%

Cash Flow Growth Rates (1)

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):9.8%

Other Growth Rates (1)

Book Value Growth Rate (Linear):4.0%

C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:REFI

Company Name:CHICAGO ATLANTIC REAL ESTATE FINANCE, INC.

Sector:Financial Services

Industry:Real Estate

Exchange:NASDAQ

Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A

Price Category:medium

Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:21.24M

Shares Outstanding Basic:21.24M

Shares Outstanding Diluted:21.71M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0

Last Updated:2026-08-31 05:20:00 UTC

Data Timestamp:2026-08-18T15:33:53.097029