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ZYBERNO

Stock Report

Updated Aug 31, 2026

NOVAVAX INC (NVAX)

Healthcare • NASDAQ

$9.26

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →

Is it a great business? Is it getting better?

21.0/100

POOR BUSINESS

NOVAVAX INC (NVAX) scores 21/100 — concerning metrics indicating significant structural or financial risks.

📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +

The Zyberno Score answers one question: "Is this a quality business worth owning?" It's a 0-100 investment grade that evaluates business fundamentals across four critical dimensions, based on principles from Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, and Charlie Munger.

The 4 Core Categories (25 points each):

1. PROFITABILITY (25 pts)

Metrics: ROE, ROIC, Net Margin, Operating Margin
Thresholds: ROE >20% excellent • ROIC >20% excellent • Net Margin >20% excellent • Operating Margin >25% excellent

2. FINANCIAL STRENGTH (25 pts)

Metrics: Debt-to-Equity, Current Ratio, Interest Coverage, Altman Z-Score
Thresholds: D/E <0.3 excellent • Current Ratio >2.5 excellent • Interest Coverage >10x excellent • Altman Z >3.0 safe

3. CASH FLOW QUALITY (25 pts)

Metrics: Free Cash Flow, OCF vs Net Income, FCF Margin
Thresholds: Positive & growing FCF excellent • OCF/NI >1.2x excellent (cash earnings exceed accounting)

4. GROWTH & CONSISTENCY (25 pts)

Metrics: Revenue Growth, Net Income Growth, FCF Growth, Piotroski F-Score
Thresholds: Growth via log-linear regression • Piotroski 8-9 excellent, 6-7 good

Score Interpretation:

75-100

GREAT BUSINESS

65-74

GOOD BUSINESS

50-64

AVERAGE BUSINESS

30-49

WEAK BUSINESS

0-29

POOR BUSINESS

→ View full NVAX quality analysis & detailed breakdown

VALUATION SIGNAL

N/A (Requires more data)

Requires fair value calculation and current price data

💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +

Margin of Safety measures how much discount or premium you're paying relative to a stock's intrinsic value. It's Benjamin Graham's core principle: the larger the margin, the lower your downside risk.

Formula: (Intrinsic Value − Current Price) ÷ Intrinsic Value × 100%

How We Calculate Intrinsic Value (DCF Method):

Step 1: Calculate current Owner Earnings (OCF − Maintenance CapEx)

Step 2: Calculate company-specific growth rate using log-linear regression on 16 quarters of Owner Earnings

Step 3: Project 10 years forward using the calculated growth rate

Step 4: Discount each year's cash flow to present value using 10% discount rate

Step 5: Calculate terminal value using 3% perpetual growth rate

Step 6: Sum all discounted cash flows = Intrinsic Value

What The Percentages Mean:

+50% or more

EXCELLENT — Very undervalued

+25% to +50%

GOOD — Attractive discount

0% to +25%

FAIR — Reasonable value

0% to -25%

CAUTION — Slight premium

-25% or worse

POOR — Overvalued

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get." — Warren Buffett

→ View full NVAX valuation analysis · → View full NVAX Brina Gap analysis

📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in.

Formula: Fundamental Growth Rate − Market-Implied Growth Rate

The Two Components:

Fundamental Growth Rate = ROIC × Reinvestment Rate

What the business can sustainably grow at based on how much it reinvests and what return it earns on that capital. Grounded in historical financials.

Market-Implied Growth Rate = Reverse DCF

The growth rate the current Enterprise Value implicitly assumes. Calculated by back-solving a 10-year DCF model (10% WACC, 3% terminal growth) until the present value of projected cash flows equals EV.

What The Gap Means:

Gap > +5% Market Underestimates — potential upside

+2% to +5% Slight Underestimate

-2% to +2% Fairly Priced — market consensus matches fundamentals

-5% to -2% Slight Overestimate

Gap < -5% Market Overestimates — price embeds optimism fundamentals don't support

A positive gap (market underestimates) combined with a positive Margin of Safety is the strongest combined signal — the business is both cheap historically and forward economics are stronger than the price suggests.

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):CRITICAL (0.0%)

Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):EXCELLENT (0.00x)

Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):CRITICAL (-56.6%)

Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):CRITICAL (-391.5%)

📊 Valuation Trilogy

Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis

Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis

Zyberno's Verdict

NOVAVAX INC (NVAX) stock report — Zyberno Score 21/100 (POOR BUSINESS). Full financial analysis on Zyberno.

Over the trailing twelve months, NVAX generated -$97.17M in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $5.61M invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: 12.8%.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:9.26

Market Cap:$1.52B

Valuation Multiples (2)

P/S Ratio:3.68x

Peg Ratio:-999.00x

Enterprise Metrics (1)

Enterprise Value:$1.76B

Price Action & Momentum (3)

12-1 Momentum:

+12.6% (81th pctile)

📈 Click to view full NVAX Momentum analysis →

Momentum Percentile:81 / 100

% of 52-Week High:77.4%

B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (4)

ROA:-22.8%

Roic:

-391.5%

📊 Click to view full NVAX ROIC analysis →

Reinvestment Rate:12.8%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-50.0%

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:-56.6%

Net Margin Ttm:-59.9%

Ebitda Margin:-52.5%

TTM Performance (3)

Gross Margin Ttm:78.6%

Operating Margin Ttm:-56.6%

Net Margin Ttm:-59.9%

Yield Metrics (2)

Earnings Yield:-$14.58

Dividend Yield:0.0%

C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Earnings Surprise (SUE) (3)

Earnings Surprise (SUE):

-0.15

📊 Click to view full NVAX Earnings Surprise analysis →

EPS Surprise vs Expected:-353.5%

Latest Earnings Filed:2026-08-06

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):-31.5%

Earnings Growth (Linear) (1)

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-17.5%

Operating Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):-21.3%

D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:2.33x

Quick Ratio:2.30x

Cash Ratio:0.58x

Leverage Analysis (1)

Debt To Ebitda:-999.00x

Coverage Ratios (2)

Interest Coverage Ratio:20.68x

Times Interest Earned:20.68

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:440,524,000.00

Cash And Cash Equivalents:191,458,000.00

Long Term Debt:$291.49M

Net Debt:$235.56M

DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS

A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $413.80M

Linear Growth: -31.5%

📊 Click to view full NVAX Revenue analysis & methodology →

Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$88.54M

Profitability Breakdown (2)

Gross profit TTM: $325.26M

Linear Growth: -29.9%

📊 Click to view full NVAX Gross Profit analysis & methodology →

Operating income TTM: -$234.12M

Linear Growth: -21.3%

📊 Click to view full NVAX Operating Income analysis & methodology →

Bottom Line Performance (3)

Net income TTM: -$247.73M

Linear Growth: -17.5%

📊 Click to view full NVAX Net Income analysis & methodology →

Income Before Tax:-$245.32M

Ebitda Ttm:-217,252,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:647,920,000.00

R And D Expense:340,315,000.00

Sga Expense:121,219,000.00

Income Tax Expense:$2.42M

Interest Expense:21,896,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:600.2%

Sga To Revenue Percentage:213.8%

Ebitda Margin:-52.5%

B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$955.58M

Current Assets:$771.10M

Ppe Net:38,133,000.00

Goodwill:112,542,000.00

Intangible Assets:$0.00

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:1,146,282,000.00

Current Liabilities:330,574,000.00

Long Term Debt:$291.49M

Short Term Debt:$135.53M

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:-$190.71M

Retained Earnings:-$4.63B

Common Stock:600,000,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:18,739,000.00

Inventory:10,006,000.00

Accounts Payable:81,424,000.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:443,332,000.00

Stock Based Compensation:8,089,000.00

C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

-$91.56M-$97.17M

Investment Activities (2)

Investing Cash Flow:-$28.36M

Capital Expenditures Ttm:5,610,000.00

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:$37.68M

Dividends Paid Ttm:0.00

Stock Repurchase:0.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:0.00

Long Term Debt Issuance:$0.00

Long Term Debt Repayments:$0.00

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:16,872,000.00

DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS

A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (3)

EPS (Basic TTM):-1.54

Eps diluted TTM: -$1.35

Linear Growth: -27.3%

📊 Click to view full NVAX EPS analysis & methodology →

Earnings Per Share Ttm:-$1.51

Revenue & Cash Per Share (2)

Sales Per Share Ttm:2.51

Operating Cash Flow Per Share:-$1.49

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:-$1.16

Cash Per Share:1.16

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:-999.00x

B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:0.38x

Working Capital Turnover Ttm:0.94x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:22.08x

Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:16.53

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:8.85x

Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:41.25

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:335.66

Cash Conversion Cycle:-277.88

C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:40.00

Quality Score:55.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x

Volatility Category:unknown

DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

A. Value Investment Framework

Owner Earnings Analysis (1)

-$97.17M

Damodaran Growth Analysis (2)

Reinvestment Rate:12.8%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-50.0%

B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (3)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):-31.5%

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-17.5%

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):-21.3%

Other Growth Rates (1)

Gross Profit Growth Rate (Linear):-29.9%

C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:NVAX

Company Name:NOVAVAX INC

Sector:Healthcare

Industry:Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)

Exchange:NASDAQ

Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A

Price Category:low

Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:164.57M

Shares Outstanding Basic:164.57M

Shares Outstanding Diluted:164.57M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0

Last Updated:2026-08-31 17:40:34 UTC

Data Timestamp:2026-08-31T17:40:34.475231