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ZYBERNO
Stock Report
Updated Aug 29, 2026

MURPHY USA INC. (MUSA)

Consumer Discretionary • NYSE

$503.19
Murphy USA Inc. is an American retail chain of gas stations and convenience stores headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas, that operates primarily adjacent to Walmart stores. The company operates approximately 1,700 Murphy USA and Murphy Express fuel stations across 27 states, with most locations adjacent to Walmart supercenters, providing fuel and convenience store products including tobacco, beverages, snacks, and prepaid cards.

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →
Is it a great business? Is it getting better?
46.0/100
WEAK BUSINESS
MURPHY USA INC. (MUSA) scores 46/100 — weak fundamentals with mixed indicators requiring careful analysis before acting.
📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +
VALUATION SIGNAL
MARGIN OF SAFETY
Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?
+15.4%
Undervalued
Is the market underestimating or overestimating what this business is capable of going forward?
-1.4%
Fairly Priced
↑ UNDER
+50%
Brina Gap
-50%
↓ OVER
← OVERVALUED
-100%
Margin of Safety
UNDERVALUED →
+100%
UNDERESTIMATED
GROWTH
DOUBLE
DISCOUNT
EXPENSIVE
HYPE
VALUE
TRAP
0,0
MoS +15.4%  ·  Gap -1.4%

Two independent signals. One tells you if the stock is cheap relative to what the business has historically generated for owners — the Margin of Safety. The other tells you if the market is underestimating what the business is capable of going forward — the Brina Gap.

They are calculated from completely different data sources and answer completely different questions. The Margin of Safety reads the past. The Brina Gap reads the present economics and compares them against what the current stock price is assuming about the future.

When both point in the same direction simultaneously — DOUBLE DISCOUNT — the probability of genuine mispricing is high. The market is wrong on two independent dimensions at once, which is rare and significant.

The most dangerous scenario is not an overvalued stock — those are easy to avoid. It is a VALUE TRAP: a stock that appears cheap historically but where the market is already pricing in stronger growth than the business fundamentals support. Without the Brina Gap signal this looks identical to a genuine opportunity. The matrix separates them instantly.

The Brina Gap is the more powerful of the two signals. Most investors and analytical tools focus on valuation alone — whether a stock is cheap relative to earnings. Far fewer systematically compare what the business economics structurally support against what the stock price is actually assuming. That gap between fundamental growth potential and market expectations is where the most reliable mispricings live, and where this matrix earns its value.

Use this as your first filter. A stock in DOUBLE DISCOUNT territory is worth investigating. Everything else requires either more caution or a specific reason to act.

HISTORICAL BARGAIN
MURPHY USA INC. (MUSA) trades below proven earnings power (Margin of Safety +15.4%) but the Brina Gap (-1.4%) shows the market fairly prices forward economics. Limited forward catalyst identified.
⚠ Owner Earnings and Free Cash Flow show moderate divergence (0.31×). Intrinsic Value and Brina Gap may be overstated — possibly from acquisition-related D&A. Treat both signals as upper bounds.
🎯 Expected Annual Return →
8.1%
Margin of Safety convergence — your return if the market re-prices to intrinsic value (5-yr annualised)
2.1%
Brina Gap convergence — your return if the market corrects the growth mispricing the Gap measures
12.1%
Yield + growth — what the business alone earns you, even if the market never re-rates
💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +
📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):EXCELLENT (94.6%)
Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):POOR (1.62x)
Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):POOR (4.3%)
Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):GOOD (18.3%)
📊 Valuation Trilogy
Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis
💎
Intrinsic Value
DCF Fair Value
$594.44
🛡️
Margin of Safety
Valuation Gap
15.4%
🎯
Expected Return
Projected Annual
8.1%
Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis
Zyberno's Verdict

According to Zyberno, MURPHY USA INC. (MUSA) shows a Value Trap signal — WEAK BUSINESS (46/100) with an apparent Margin of Safety of +15.4%, but a Brina Gap of -1.4% reveals the current price still assumes faster growth than the business can deliver.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, MURPHY USA INC. (MUSA) trades at $503.19 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $594.44 — a +15.4% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $724.70M TTM, projected at 4.6% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. The Brina Gap of -1.4% weakens the case: based on the company's ROIC (18.3%) and reinvestment rate (23.5%), the business can fundamentally grow at 4.3% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects 5.7%. This places MUSA in the Value Trap quadrant of the Brina Matrix — a value-trap signal where the apparent discount is undermined by overpriced growth expectations. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of 8.1% annually.

Over the trailing twelve months, MUSA generated $724.70M in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $70.50M returned via share buybacks, $45.40M paid as dividends, $450.10M invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: 23.5%. Owner Earnings have grown at 4.6% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:503.19
Market Cap:$9.28B

Valuation Multiples (4)

P/E Ratio:
15.41x
📊 Click to view full MUSA P/E analysis →
P/B Ratio:11.85x
P/S Ratio:0.43x
Peg Ratio:0.43x

Enterprise Metrics (3)

Enterprise Value:$12.28B
Ev Ebitda Ratio:10.17x
Pfcf Ratio:16.71x

Price Action & Momentum (3)

12-1 Momentum:
+70.2% (73th pctile)
📈 Click to view full MUSA Momentum analysis →
Momentum Percentile:73 / 100
% of 52-Week High:79.1%
B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (7)

ROE:
94.6%
📊 Click to view full MUSA ROE analysis →
ROA:12.8%
Roic:
18.3%
📊 Click to view full MUSA ROIC analysis →
Reinvestment Rate:23.5%
Fundamental Growth Rate (g):4.3%
Market-Implied Growth Rate:5.7%
Brina Gap:
-1.4%
☷ Click to view full MUSA Brina Gap analysis →
MOD CONF

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:4.3%
Net Margin Ttm:2.9%
Ebitda Margin:5.6%

TTM Performance (2)

Operating Margin Ttm:4.3%
Net Margin Ttm:2.9%

Yield Metrics (3)

Earnings Yield:$6.49
Owner Earnings Yield:$7.81
Dividend Yield:0.5%
C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Earnings Surprise (SUE) (3)

Earnings Surprise (SUE):
+1.62
📊 Click to view full MUSA Earnings Surprise analysis →
EPS Surprise vs Expected:41.4%
Latest Earnings Filed:2026-08-06

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):-1.9%

Earnings Growth (Linear) (1)

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):0.2%

Cash Flow Growth (Linear) (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-1.2%
Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):6.2%

Operating Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):0.8%
D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:0.92x
Quick Ratio:0.54x
Cash Ratio:0.16x

Leverage Analysis (3)

Debt To Equity Ttm:1.62x
Debt-to-Equity Ratio:1.62x
Debt To Ebitda:2.63x

Coverage Ratios (2)

Interest Coverage Ratio:6.19x
Times Interest Earned:6.19

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:-81,800,000.00
Cash And Cash Equivalents:175,400,000.00
Long Term Debt:$2.17B
Net Debt:$3.01B
DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS
A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $21.48B
Linear Growth: -1.9%
📊 Click to view full MUSA Revenue analysis & methodology →
Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$0.00

Profitability Breakdown (2)

$0.00
Operating income TTM: $921.40M
Linear Growth: 78.0%
📊 Click to view full MUSA Operating Income analysis & methodology →

Bottom Line Performance (3)

Net income TTM: $617.20M
Linear Growth: 19.0%
📊 Click to view full MUSA Net Income analysis & methodology →
Income Before Tax:$808.60M
Ebitda Ttm:1,208,300,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:20,556,100,000.00
R And D Expense:0.00
Sga Expense:237,600,000.00
Income Tax Expense:$191.40M
Interest Expense:116,000,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:0.0%
Sga To Revenue Percentage:3.5%
Ebitda Margin:5.6%
B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$5.09B
Current Assets:$1.01B
Ppe Net:0.00
Goodwill:328,000,000.00
Intangible Assets:$139.20M

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:4,302,300,000.00
Current Liabilities:1,089,700,000.00
Long Term Debt:$2.17B
Short Term Debt:$1.02B

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:$782.70M
Retained Earnings:$4.49B
Common Stock:200,000,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:379,200,000.00
Inventory:417,400,000.00
Accounts Payable:1,015,000,000.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:0.00
Stock Based Compensation:3,400,000.00
C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

Operating cash flow TTM: $1.01B
Linear Growth: 6.2%
Free cash flow TTM: $555.30M
Linear Growth: -1.2%
📊 Click to view full MUSA Free Cash Flow analysis & methodology →

Investment Activities (2)

Investing Cash Flow:-$98.50M
Capital Expenditures Ttm:450,100,000.00

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:-$131.80M
Dividends Paid Ttm:45,400,000.00
Stock Repurchase:70,500,000.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:0.00
Long Term Debt Issuance:$590.00M
Long Term Debt Repayments:$0.00

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:286,900,000.00
DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS
A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (3)

EPS (Basic TTM):32.97
Eps diluted TTM: $32.66
Linear Growth: 6.2%
📊 Click to view full MUSA EPS analysis & methodology →
Earnings Per Share Ttm:$33.47

Revenue & Cash Per Share (3)

Sales Per Share Ttm:1,164.93
Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$44.14
Fcf Per Share Ttm:30.12

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:$42.45
Cash Per Share:9.51

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:7.02x
B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:4.44x
Working Capital Turnover Ttm:-999.00x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:56.64x
Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:6.44

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:51.46x
Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:7.09

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:17.25
Cash Conversion Cycle:-3.71
C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:0.00
Quality Score:65.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x
Volatility Category:unknown
DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
A. Value Investment Framework

Owner Earnings Analysis (3)

Owner earnings TTM: $724.70M
Linear Growth: 4.6%
📊 Click to view full MUSA Owner Earnings analysis & methodology →
Owner Earnings Per Share:$39.30
Owner Earnings Yield:$7.81

Growth Assessment (1)

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:$4.60

Damodaran Growth Analysis (4)

Reinvestment Rate:23.5%
Fundamental Growth Rate (g):4.3%
Market-Implied Growth Rate:5.7%
Brina Gap:
-1.4%
☷ Click to view full MUSA Brina Gap analysis →
MOD CONF

Intrinsic Value Models (1)

Intrinsic Value:
$10.96B
📊 Click to view full MUSA DCF valuation →

Margin of Safety (1)

Margin Of Safety:
15.4%
📊 Click to view full MUSA valuation analysis →

Return Scenarios (2)

Theoretical 5-Year Return:
8.1%
📊 Click to view full MUSA expected return analysis →
Forward Expected Return (Yield + Growth):
12.1%
📊 Click to view full MUSA expected return analysis →

Investment Assessment (1)

Buffett Assessment:Good margin of safety
B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (3)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):-1.9%
Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):0.2%
Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):0.8%

Cash Flow Growth Rates (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-1.2%
Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):6.2%

Other Growth Rates (2)

Book Value Growth Rate (Linear):-4.0%
Owner Earnings Growth Rate:$4.60
C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:MUSA
Company Name:MURPHY USA INC.
Sector:Consumer Discretionary
Industry:Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations
Exchange:NYSE
Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A
Price Category:premium
Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:18.44M
Shares Outstanding Basic:18.44M
Shares Outstanding Diluted:18.55M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0
Last Updated:2026-08-29 13:31:06 UTC
Data Timestamp:2026-08-29T13:31:06.895287
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