NYSE
According to Zyberno, Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) is not a buy — WEAK BUSINESS (34/100) with a negative Margin of Safety of -15.3% and a Brina Gap of -6.6% showing the market already prices in more growth than the fundamentals support.
According to Zyberno's DCF model, Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) trades at $141.93 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $123.09 — a -15.3% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $354.45M TTM, projected at 0.5% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. The Brina Gap of -6.6% weakens the case: based on the company's ROIC (12.9%) and reinvestment rate (-13.2%), the business can fundamentally grow at -1.7% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects 4.9%. This places MTN in the Expensive Hype quadrant of the Brina Matrix, the most fragile combination — overvalued on cash AND overpriced on growth. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of -2.4% annually.
Over the trailing twelve months, MTN generated $354.45M in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $45.00M returned via share buybacks, $324.84M paid as dividends, $235.85M invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: -13.2%. Owner Earnings have grown at 0.5% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.