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ZYBERNO

Stock Report

Updated Sep 1, 2026

HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK)

Energy • NASDAQ

$8.10

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →

Is it a great business? Is it getting better?

15.0/100

POOR BUSINESS

HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK) scores 15/100 — concerning metrics indicating significant structural or financial risks.

📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +

The Zyberno Score answers one question: "Is this a quality business worth owning?" It's a 0-100 investment grade that evaluates business fundamentals across four critical dimensions, based on principles from Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, and Charlie Munger.

The 4 Core Categories (25 points each):

1. PROFITABILITY (25 pts)

Metrics: ROE, ROIC, Net Margin, Operating Margin
Thresholds: ROE >20% excellent • ROIC >20% excellent • Net Margin >20% excellent • Operating Margin >25% excellent

2. FINANCIAL STRENGTH (25 pts)

Metrics: Debt-to-Equity, Current Ratio, Interest Coverage, Altman Z-Score
Thresholds: D/E <0.3 excellent • Current Ratio >2.5 excellent • Interest Coverage >10x excellent • Altman Z >3.0 safe

3. CASH FLOW QUALITY (25 pts)

Metrics: Free Cash Flow, OCF vs Net Income, FCF Margin
Thresholds: Positive & growing FCF excellent • OCF/NI >1.2x excellent (cash earnings exceed accounting)

4. GROWTH & CONSISTENCY (25 pts)

Metrics: Revenue Growth, Net Income Growth, FCF Growth, Piotroski F-Score
Thresholds: Growth via log-linear regression • Piotroski 8-9 excellent, 6-7 good

Score Interpretation:

75-100

GREAT BUSINESS

65-74

GOOD BUSINESS

50-64

AVERAGE BUSINESS

30-49

WEAK BUSINESS

0-29

POOR BUSINESS

→ View full HPK quality analysis & detailed breakdown

VALUATION SIGNAL

MARGIN OF SAFETY

Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?

Margin of Safety unavailable — insufficient data for the owner-earnings DCF.

BRINA GAP ↗

Is the market underestimating or overestimating what this business is capable of going forward?

-13.2%

Market Overestimates

💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +

Margin of Safety measures how much discount or premium you're paying relative to a stock's intrinsic value. It's Benjamin Graham's core principle: the larger the margin, the lower your downside risk.

Formula: (Intrinsic Value − Current Price) ÷ Intrinsic Value × 100%

How We Calculate Intrinsic Value (DCF Method):

Step 1: Calculate current Owner Earnings (OCF − Maintenance CapEx)

Step 2: Calculate company-specific growth rate using log-linear regression on 16 quarters of Owner Earnings

Step 3: Project 10 years forward using the calculated growth rate

Step 4: Discount each year's cash flow to present value using 10% discount rate

Step 5: Calculate terminal value using 3% perpetual growth rate

Step 6: Sum all discounted cash flows = Intrinsic Value

What The Percentages Mean:

+50% or more

EXCELLENT — Very undervalued

+25% to +50%

GOOD — Attractive discount

0% to +25%

FAIR — Reasonable value

0% to -25%

CAUTION — Slight premium

-25% or worse

POOR — Overvalued

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get." — Warren Buffett

→ View full HPK valuation analysis · → View full HPK Brina Gap analysis

📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in.

Formula: Fundamental Growth Rate − Market-Implied Growth Rate

The Two Components:

Fundamental Growth Rate = ROIC × Reinvestment Rate

What the business can sustainably grow at based on how much it reinvests and what return it earns on that capital. Grounded in historical financials.

Market-Implied Growth Rate = Reverse DCF

The growth rate the current Enterprise Value implicitly assumes. Calculated by back-solving a 10-year DCF model (10% WACC, 3% terminal growth) until the present value of projected cash flows equals EV.

What The Gap Means:

Gap > +5% Market Underestimates — potential upside

+2% to +5% Slight Underestimate

-2% to +2% Fairly Priced — market consensus matches fundamentals

-5% to -2% Slight Overestimate

Gap < -5% Market Overestimates — price embeds optimism fundamentals don't support

A positive gap (market underestimates) combined with a positive Margin of Safety is the strongest combined signal — the business is both cheap historically and forward economics are stronger than the price suggests.

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):CRITICAL (-1.7%)

Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):AVERAGE (0.77x)

Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):EXCELLENT (29.8%)

Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):POOR (8.0%)

📊 Valuation Trilogy

Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis

Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis

Zyberno's Verdict

HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK) stock report — Zyberno Score 15/100 (POOR BUSINESS). Full financial analysis on Zyberno.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK) shows a Brina Gap of -13.2%, which weakens the case: based on the company's ROIC (8.0%) and reinvestment rate (-190.1%), the business can fundamentally grow at -15.2% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects -2.0%.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:8.10

Market Cap:$1.01B

Valuation Multiples (3)

P/B Ratio:0.65x

P/S Ratio:1.14x

Peg Ratio:-999.00x

Enterprise Metrics (2)

Enterprise Value:$2.24B

Ev Ebitda Ratio:3.19x

Price Action & Momentum (3)

12-1 Momentum:

+6.4% (18th pctile)

📈 Click to view full HPK Momentum analysis →

Momentum Percentile:18 / 100

% of 52-Week High:88.7%

B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (7)

ROE:

-1.7%

📊 Click to view full HPK ROE analysis →

ROA:-0.8%

Roic:

8.0%

📊 Click to view full HPK ROIC analysis →

Reinvestment Rate:-190.1%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-15.2%

Market-Implied Growth Rate:-2.0%

Brina Gap:

-13.2%

☷ Click to view full HPK Brina Gap analysis →

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:29.8%

Net Margin Ttm:-2.9%

Ebitda Margin:78.8%

TTM Performance (2)

Operating Margin Ttm:29.8%

Net Margin Ttm:-2.9%

Yield Metrics (2)

Earnings Yield:-$3.58

Dividend Yield:1.6%

C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Earnings Surprise (SUE) (3)

Earnings Surprise (SUE):

+0.90

📊 Click to view full HPK Earnings Surprise analysis →

EPS Surprise vs Expected:365.0%

Latest Earnings Filed:2026-08-10

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):-3.3%

Earnings Growth (Linear) (1)

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-13.6%

Cash Flow Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-14.1%

Operating Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):-20.1%

D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:0.87x

Quick Ratio:0.85x

Cash Ratio:0.48x

Leverage Analysis (3)

Debt To Equity Ttm:0.77x

Debt-to-Equity Ratio:0.77x

Debt To Ebitda:1.95x

Coverage Ratios (2)

Interest Coverage Ratio:1.04x

Times Interest Earned:1.04

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:-41,235,000.00

Cash And Cash Equivalents:146,346,000.00

Long Term Debt:$1.07B

Net Debt:$1.23B

DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS

A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $893.82M

Linear Growth: -3.3%

📊 Click to view full HPK Revenue analysis & methodology →

Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$0.00

Profitability Breakdown (2)

$0.00

Operating income TTM: $266.24M

Linear Growth: -20.1%

📊 Click to view full HPK Operating Income analysis & methodology →

Bottom Line Performance (3)

Net income TTM: -$26.21M

Linear Growth: -13.6%

📊 Click to view full HPK Net Income analysis & methodology →

Income Before Tax:-$30.21M

Ebitda Ttm:703,909,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:758,000,000.00

R And D Expense:0.00

Sga Expense:26,003,000.00

Income Tax Expense:-$4.00M

Interest Expense:144,752,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:0.0%

Sga To Revenue Percentage:9.5%

Ebitda Margin:78.8%

B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$3.17B

Current Assets:$264.26M

Ppe Net:3,259,000.00

Goodwill:0.00

Intangible Assets:$0.00

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:1,623,455,000.00

Current Liabilities:305,494,000.00

Long Term Debt:$1.07B

Short Term Debt:$305.50M

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:$1.55B

Retained Earnings:$387.38M

Common Stock:600,000,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:83,064,000.00

Inventory:3,817,000.00

Accounts Payable:305,500,000.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:0.00

Stock Based Compensation:868,000.00

C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

Operating cash flow TTM: $408.75M

Linear Growth: -14.1%

$0.00

Investment Activities (1)

Investing Cash Flow:-$114.35M

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:-$6.10M

Dividends Paid Ttm:15,953,000.00

Stock Repurchase:0.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:0.00

Long Term Debt Issuance:$0.00

Long Term Debt Repayments:$0.00

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:437,668,000.00

DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS

A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (3)

EPS (Basic TTM):-0.29

Eps diluted TTM: -$0.29

Linear Growth: -16.5%

📊 Click to view full HPK EPS analysis & methodology →

Earnings Per Share Ttm:-$0.21

Revenue & Cash Per Share (2)

Sales Per Share Ttm:7.13

Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$4.08

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:$12.38

Cash Per Share:1.17

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:-999.00x

B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:0.28x

Working Capital Turnover Ttm:-999.00x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:10.76x

Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:33.92

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:234.17x

Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:1.56

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:124.75

Cash Conversion Cycle:-89.28

C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:0.00

Quality Score:70.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x

Volatility Category:unknown

DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

A. Value Investment Framework

Damodaran Growth Analysis (4)

Reinvestment Rate:-190.1%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-15.2%

Market-Implied Growth Rate:-2.0%

Brina Gap:

-13.2%

☷ Click to view full HPK Brina Gap analysis →

B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (3)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):-3.3%

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-13.6%

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):-20.1%

Cash Flow Growth Rates (1)

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-14.1%

Other Growth Rates (1)

Book Value Growth Rate (Linear):16.0%

C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:HPK

Company Name:HighPeak Energy, Inc.

Sector:Energy

Industry:Drilling Oil & Gas Wells

Exchange:NASDAQ

Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A

Price Category:low

Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:125.29M

Shares Outstanding Basic:125.29M

Shares Outstanding Diluted:126.41M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0

Last Updated:2026-09-01 05:58:04 UTC

Data Timestamp:2026-09-01T05:58:04.160692