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ZYBERNO
Stock Report
Updated Aug 30, 2026

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)

Industrial • NYSE

$28.10
Harley-Davidson Inc. is an American motorcycle manufacturer headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, that produces heavyweight motorcycles, accessories, and apparel under the Harley-Davidson and LiveWire (electric motorcycle) brands. The company sells primarily through a global network of approximately 1,400 Harley-Davidson dealers and has a dedicated community of approximately 650,000 H.O.G. (Harley Owners Group) members.

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →
Is it a great business? Is it getting better?
52.0/100
AVERAGE BUSINESS
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) scores 52/100 — decent metrics but limited evidence of durable competitive advantage.
📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +
VALUATION SIGNAL
MARGIN OF SAFETY
Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?
-100.0%
Overvalued
Is the market underestimating or overestimating what this business is capable of going forward?
+6.7%
Slight Underestimate
↑ UNDER
+50%
Brina Gap
-50%
↓ OVER
← OVERVALUED
-100%
Margin of Safety
UNDERVALUED →
+100%
UNDERESTIMATED
GROWTH
DOUBLE
DISCOUNT
EXPENSIVE
HYPE
VALUE
TRAP
0,0
MoS -100.0%  ·  Gap +6.7%

Two independent signals. One tells you if the stock is cheap relative to what the business has historically generated for owners — the Margin of Safety. The other tells you if the market is underestimating what the business is capable of going forward — the Brina Gap.

They are calculated from completely different data sources and answer completely different questions. The Margin of Safety reads the past. The Brina Gap reads the present economics and compares them against what the current stock price is assuming about the future.

When both point in the same direction simultaneously — DOUBLE DISCOUNT — the probability of genuine mispricing is high. The market is wrong on two independent dimensions at once, which is rare and significant.

The most dangerous scenario is not an overvalued stock — those are easy to avoid. It is a VALUE TRAP: a stock that appears cheap historically but where the market is already pricing in stronger growth than the business fundamentals support. Without the Brina Gap signal this looks identical to a genuine opportunity. The matrix separates them instantly.

The Brina Gap is the more powerful of the two signals. Most investors and analytical tools focus on valuation alone — whether a stock is cheap relative to earnings. Far fewer systematically compare what the business economics structurally support against what the stock price is actually assuming. That gap between fundamental growth potential and market expectations is where the most reliable mispricings live, and where this matrix earns its value.

Use this as your first filter. A stock in DOUBLE DISCOUNT territory is worth investigating. Everything else requires either more caution or a specific reason to act.

EXPENSIVE WITH GROWTH POTENTIAL
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) trades at a premium (Margin of Safety -100.0%) despite the market underestimating forward growth (Brina Gap +6.7%). No margin of safety at current price.
🎯 Expected Annual Return →
0.0%
Margin of Safety convergence — your return if the market re-prices to intrinsic value (5-yr annualised)
9.2%
Brina Gap convergence — your return if the market corrects the growth mispricing the Gap measures
1.0%
Yield + growth — what the business alone earns you, even if the market never re-rates
💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +
📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):AVERAGE (13.7%)
Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):GOOD (0.54x)
Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):AVERAGE (11.5%)
Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):AVERAGE (13.6%)
📊 Valuation Trilogy
Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis
💎
Intrinsic Value
DCF Fair Value
$12.80
🛡️
Margin of Safety
Valuation Gap
-100.0%
🎯
Expected Return
Projected Annual
0.0%
Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis
Zyberno's Verdict

According to Zyberno, Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) shows Underestimated Growth — AVERAGE BUSINESS (52/100) with a Brina Gap of +6.7% showing underestimated forward growth, but no margin of safety at -100.0%.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) trades at $28.10 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $12.80 — a -100.0% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $49.43M TTM, projected at 17.1% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. The Brina Gap of +6.7% strengthens the case: based on the company's ROIC (13.6%) and reinvestment rate (-4.6%), the business can fundamentally grow at -0.6% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects -7.3%. This places HOG in the Underestimated Growth quadrant of the Brina Matrix, where growth is underestimated but no margin of safety on existing cash. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of 0.0% annually.

Over the trailing twelve months, HOG generated $49.43M in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $70.02M returned via share buybacks, $85.01M paid as dividends, $155.50M invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: -4.6%. Owner Earnings have grown at 17.1% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:28.10
Market Cap:$2.95B

Valuation Multiples (4)

P/E Ratio:
7.49x
📊 Click to view full HOG P/E analysis →
P/B Ratio:0.95x
P/S Ratio:0.70x
Peg Ratio:-999.00x

Enterprise Metrics (3)

Enterprise Value:$2.80B
Ev Ebitda Ratio:4.22x
Pfcf Ratio:67.32x

Price Action & Momentum (3)

12-1 Momentum:
+7.2% (49th pctile)
📈 Click to view full HOG Momentum analysis →
Momentum Percentile:49 / 100
% of 52-Week High:89.9%
B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (7)

ROE:
13.7%
📊 Click to view full HOG ROE analysis →
ROA:5.4%
Roic:
13.6%
📊 Click to view full HOG ROIC analysis →
Reinvestment Rate:-4.6%
Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-0.6%
Market-Implied Growth Rate:-7.3%
Brina Gap:
6.7%
☷ Click to view full HOG Brina Gap analysis →

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:11.5%
Net Margin Ttm:10.5%
Ebitda Margin:15.6%

TTM Performance (3)

Gross Margin Ttm:33.4%
Operating Margin Ttm:11.5%
Net Margin Ttm:10.5%

Yield Metrics (3)

Earnings Yield:$13.35
Owner Earnings Yield:$1.67
Dividend Yield:2.9%
C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Earnings Surprise (SUE) (3)

Earnings Surprise (SUE):
-0.11
📊 Click to view full HOG Earnings Surprise analysis →
EPS Surprise vs Expected:-14.3%
Latest Earnings Filed:2026-08-05

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):-12.1%

Earnings Growth (Linear) (1)

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-13.7%

Cash Flow Growth (Linear) (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):33.4%
Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):12.6%

Operating Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):-20.2%
D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:1.90x
Quick Ratio:1.70x
Cash Ratio:0.79x

Leverage Analysis (3)

Debt To Equity Ttm:0.54x
Debt-to-Equity Ratio:0.54x
Debt To Ebitda:2.63x

Coverage Ratios (2)

Interest Coverage Ratio:15.31x
Times Interest Earned:15.31

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:2,177,778,000.00
Cash And Cash Equivalents:1,895,789,000.00
Long Term Debt:$1.13B
Net Debt:-$151.80M
DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS
A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $4.24B
Linear Growth: -12.1%
📊 Click to view full HOG Revenue analysis & methodology →
Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$2.82B

Profitability Breakdown (2)

Gross profit TTM: $1.42B
Linear Growth: -21.4%
📊 Click to view full HOG Gross Profit analysis & methodology →
Operating income TTM: $486.14M
Linear Growth: -20.2%
📊 Click to view full HOG Operating Income analysis & methodology →

Bottom Line Performance (3)

Net income TTM: $443.32M
Linear Growth: -13.7%
📊 Click to view full HOG Net Income analysis & methodology →
Income Before Tax:$596.10M
Ebitda Ttm:663,084,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:4,026,632,000.00
R And D Expense:0.00
Sga Expense:1,190,621,000.00
Income Tax Expense:$163.85M
Interest Expense:25,254,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:0.0%
Sga To Revenue Percentage:96.8%
Ebitda Margin:15.6%
B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$7.25B
Current Assets:$4.59B
Ppe Net:691,084,000.00
Goodwill:63,608,000.00
Intangible Assets:$5.57M

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:4,129,846,000.00
Current Liabilities:2,411,448,000.00
Long Term Debt:$1.13B
Short Term Debt:$613.14M

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:$3.12B
Retained Earnings:$3.78B
Common Stock:1,736,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:301,788,000.00
Inventory:500,935,000.00
Accounts Payable:409,275,000.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:109,148,000.00
Stock Based Compensation:8,543,000.00
C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

Operating cash flow TTM: $199.37M
Linear Growth: 12.6%
Free cash flow TTM: $43.87M
Linear Growth: 33.4%
📊 Click to view full HOG Free Cash Flow analysis & methodology →

Investment Activities (2)

Investing Cash Flow:-$92.00M
Capital Expenditures Ttm:155,498,000.00

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:-$959.34M
Dividends Paid Ttm:85,007,000.00
Stock Repurchase:70,018,000.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:0.00
Long Term Debt Issuance:$0.00
Long Term Debt Repayments:$0.00

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:176,945,000.00
DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS
A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (3)

EPS (Basic TTM):3.81
Eps diluted TTM: $3.75
Linear Growth: -6.2%
📊 Click to view full HOG EPS analysis & methodology →
Earnings Per Share Ttm:$4.22

Revenue & Cash Per Share (3)

Sales Per Share Ttm:40.34
Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$5.41
Fcf Per Share Ttm:0.42

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:$29.65
Cash Per Share:18.04

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:21.08x
B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:0.51x
Working Capital Turnover Ttm:1.95x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:14.05x
Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:25.98

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:5.64x
Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:64.75

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:52.90
Cash Conversion Cycle:37.83
C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:80.00
Quality Score:95.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x
Volatility Category:unknown
DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
A. Value Investment Framework

Owner Earnings Analysis (3)

Owner earnings TTM: $49.43M
Linear Growth: 17.1%
📊 Click to view full HOG Owner Earnings analysis & methodology →
Owner Earnings Per Share:$0.47
Owner Earnings Yield:$1.67

Growth Assessment (1)

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:$17.07

Damodaran Growth Analysis (4)

Reinvestment Rate:-4.6%
Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-0.6%
Market-Implied Growth Rate:-7.3%
Brina Gap:
6.7%
☷ Click to view full HOG Brina Gap analysis →

Intrinsic Value Models (1)

Intrinsic Value:
$1.34B
📊 Click to view full HOG DCF valuation →

Margin of Safety (1)

Margin Of Safety:
-100.0%
📊 Click to view full HOG valuation analysis →

Return Scenarios (2)

Theoretical 5-Year Return:
0.0%
📊 Click to view full HOG expected return analysis →
Forward Expected Return (Yield + Growth):
1.0%
📊 Click to view full HOG expected return analysis →

Investment Assessment (1)

Buffett Assessment:Overvalued
B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (3)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):-12.1%
Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-13.7%
Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):-20.2%

Cash Flow Growth Rates (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):33.4%
Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):12.6%

Other Growth Rates (3)

Gross Profit Growth Rate (Linear):-21.4%
Book Value Growth Rate (Linear):2.8%
Owner Earnings Growth Rate:$17.07
C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:HOG
Company Name:Harley-Davidson, Inc.
Sector:Industrial
Industry:Motorcycles, Bicycles & Parts
Exchange:NYSE
Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A
Price Category:medium
Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:105.10M
Shares Outstanding Basic:105.10M
Shares Outstanding Diluted:108.57M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0
Last Updated:2026-08-30 23:54:09 UTC
Data Timestamp:2026-08-30T23:54:09.939378
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