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ZYBERNO
Stock Report
Updated Aug 30, 2026

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC)

Materials • NYSE

$107.07
Warrior Met Coal Inc. is an American metallurgical coal producer headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama, that mines premium quality met coal used in steelmaking. The company operates underground mines in Alabama's Blue Creek coal seam, which produces one of the highest-quality coking coals in the world, and sells its production primarily to steel mills in Europe and South America.

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →
Is it a great business? Is it getting better?
34.0/100
WEAK BUSINESS
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) scores 34/100 — weak fundamentals with mixed indicators requiring careful analysis before acting.
📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +
VALUATION SIGNAL
MARGIN OF SAFETY
Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?
-100.0%
Overvalued
Is the market underestimating or overestimating what this business is capable of going forward?
-4.3%
Slight Overestimate
↑ UNDER
+50%
Brina Gap
-50%
↓ OVER
← OVERVALUED
-100%
Margin of Safety
UNDERVALUED →
+100%
UNDERESTIMATED
GROWTH
DOUBLE
DISCOUNT
EXPENSIVE
HYPE
VALUE
TRAP
0,0
MoS -100.0%  ·  Gap -4.3%

Two independent signals. One tells you if the stock is cheap relative to what the business has historically generated for owners — the Margin of Safety. The other tells you if the market is underestimating what the business is capable of going forward — the Brina Gap.

They are calculated from completely different data sources and answer completely different questions. The Margin of Safety reads the past. The Brina Gap reads the present economics and compares them against what the current stock price is assuming about the future.

When both point in the same direction simultaneously — DOUBLE DISCOUNT — the probability of genuine mispricing is high. The market is wrong on two independent dimensions at once, which is rare and significant.

The most dangerous scenario is not an overvalued stock — those are easy to avoid. It is a VALUE TRAP: a stock that appears cheap historically but where the market is already pricing in stronger growth than the business fundamentals support. Without the Brina Gap signal this looks identical to a genuine opportunity. The matrix separates them instantly.

The Brina Gap is the more powerful of the two signals. Most investors and analytical tools focus on valuation alone — whether a stock is cheap relative to earnings. Far fewer systematically compare what the business economics structurally support against what the stock price is actually assuming. That gap between fundamental growth potential and market expectations is where the most reliable mispricings live, and where this matrix earns its value.

Use this as your first filter. A stock in DOUBLE DISCOUNT territory is worth investigating. Everything else requires either more caution or a specific reason to act.

EXPENSIVE HYPE
In the Brina Matrix, Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) registers Expensive Hype — Margin of Safety -100.0% and Brina Gap -4.3% are both unfavorable. The stock is priced above its historical earnings power and the market already assumes faster growth than the fundamentals support.
⚠ Significant divergence between Owner Earnings and Free Cash Flow (1.09×). Intrinsic Value and Brina Gap are likely overstated — acquisition-related D&A is inflating Owner Earnings. Verify earnings quality before acting.
🎯 Expected Annual Return →
-69.0%
Margin of Safety convergence — your return if the market re-prices to intrinsic value (5-yr annualised)
-0.5%
Brina Gap convergence — your return if the market corrects the growth mispricing the Gap measures
6.3%
Yield + growth — what the business alone earns you, even if the market never re-rates
💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +
📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):AVERAGE (10.0%)
Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):EXCELLENT (0.07x)
Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):AVERAGE (13.6%)
Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):AVERAGE (10.2%)
📊 Valuation Trilogy
Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis
💎
Intrinsic Value
DCF Fair Value
$0.93
🛡️
Margin of Safety
Valuation Gap
-100.0%
🎯
Expected Return
Projected Annual
-69.0%
Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis
Zyberno's Verdict

According to Zyberno, Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) is not a buy — WEAK BUSINESS (34/100) with a negative Margin of Safety of -100.0% and a Brina Gap of -4.3% showing the market already prices in more growth than the fundamentals support.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) trades at $107.07 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $0.93 — a -100.0% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $11.04M TTM, projected at -50.0% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. The Brina Gap of -4.3% weakens the case: based on the company's ROIC (10.2%) and reinvestment rate (59.9%), the business can fundamentally grow at 6.1% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects 10.4%. This places HCC in the Expensive Hype quadrant of the Brina Matrix, the most fragile combination — overvalued on cash AND overpriced on growth. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of -69.0% annually.

Over the trailing twelve months, HCC generated $11.04M in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $17.38M paid as dividends, $331.88M invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: 59.9%. Owner Earnings have declined at 50.0% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:107.07
Market Cap:$5.66B

Valuation Multiples (4)

P/E Ratio:
25.80x
📊 Click to view full HCC P/E analysis →
P/B Ratio:2.47x
P/S Ratio:3.37x
Peg Ratio:0.06x

Enterprise Metrics (2)

Enterprise Value:$5.52B
Ev Ebitda Ratio:12.55x

Price Action & Momentum (3)

12-1 Momentum:
+56.5% (89th pctile)
📈 Click to view full HCC Momentum analysis →
Momentum Percentile:89 / 100
% of 52-Week High:96.3%
B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (7)

ROE:
10.0%
📊 Click to view full HCC ROE analysis →
ROA:7.8%
Roic:
10.2%
📊 Click to view full HCC ROIC analysis →
Reinvestment Rate:59.9%
Fundamental Growth Rate (g):6.1%
Market-Implied Growth Rate:10.4%
Brina Gap:
-4.3%
☷ Click to view full HCC Brina Gap analysis →
LOW CONF

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:13.6%
Net Margin Ttm:13.0%
Ebitda Margin:26.2%

TTM Performance (3)

Gross Margin Ttm:32.1%
Operating Margin Ttm:13.6%
Net Margin Ttm:13.0%

Yield Metrics (3)

Earnings Yield:$3.88
Owner Earnings Yield:$0.20
Dividend Yield:0.3%
C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Earnings Surprise (SUE) (3)

Earnings Surprise (SUE):
+0.83
📊 Click to view full HCC Earnings Surprise analysis →
EPS Surprise vs Expected:1,558.6%
Latest Earnings Filed:2026-08-05

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):-1.1%

Earnings Growth (Linear) (1)

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-36.2%

Cash Flow Growth (Linear) (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-50.0%
Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-43.3%

Operating Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):-31.5%
D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:3.93x
Quick Ratio:2.79x
Cash Ratio:1.29x

Leverage Analysis (3)

Debt To Equity Ttm:0.07x
Debt-to-Equity Ratio:0.07x
Debt To Ebitda:0.37x

Coverage Ratios (2)

Interest Coverage Ratio:3.40x
Times Interest Earned:3.40

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:683,963,000.00
Cash And Cash Equivalents:302,346,000.00
Long Term Debt:$154.59M
Net Debt:-$137.55M
DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS
A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $1.68B
Linear Growth: -1.1%
📊 Click to view full HCC Revenue analysis & methodology →
Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$1.14B

Profitability Breakdown (2)

Gross profit TTM: $540.14M
Linear Growth: -16.8%
📊 Click to view full HCC Gross Profit analysis & methodology →
Operating income TTM: $229.26M
Linear Growth: -31.5%
📊 Click to view full HCC Operating Income analysis & methodology →

Bottom Line Performance (3)

Net income TTM: $219.33M
Linear Growth: -36.2%
📊 Click to view full HCC Net Income analysis & methodology →
Income Before Tax:$228.65M
Ebitda Ttm:439,858,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:1,451,596,000.00
R And D Expense:0.00
Sga Expense:73,312,000.00
Income Tax Expense:$7.60M
Interest Expense:13,442,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:0.0%
Sga To Revenue Percentage:14.4%
Ebitda Margin:26.2%
B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$2.90B
Current Assets:$917.64M
Ppe Net:0.00
Goodwill:0.00
Intangible Assets:$0.00

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:610,242,000.00
Current Liabilities:233,675,000.00
Long Term Debt:$154.59M
Short Term Debt:$10.21M

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:$2.29B
Retained Earnings:$2.04B
Common Stock:140,000,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:263,415,000.00
Inventory:264,884,000.00
Accounts Payable:78,773,000.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:0.00
Stock Based Compensation:10,099,000.00
C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

Operating cash flow TTM: $206.60M
Linear Growth: -43.3%
Free cash flow TTM: -$125.28M
Linear Growth: -50.0%
📊 Click to view full HCC Free Cash Flow analysis & methodology →

Investment Activities (2)

Investing Cash Flow:-$57.43M
Capital Expenditures Ttm:331,880,000.00

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:-$28.15M
Dividends Paid Ttm:17,378,000.00
Stock Repurchase:0.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:0.00
Long Term Debt Issuance:$0.00
Long Term Debt Repayments:$0.00

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:210,599,000.00
DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS
A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (3)

EPS (Basic TTM):4.15
Eps diluted TTM: $4.15
Linear Growth: -36.6%
📊 Click to view full HCC EPS analysis & methodology →
Earnings Per Share Ttm:$4.15

Revenue & Cash Per Share (2)

Sales Per Share Ttm:31.82
Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$4.34

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:$43.35
Cash Per Share:5.72

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:9.03x
B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:0.60x
Working Capital Turnover Ttm:2.46x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:6.38x
Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:57.20

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:4.31x
Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:84.76

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:25.21
Cash Conversion Cycle:116.75
C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:100.00
Quality Score:95.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x
Volatility Category:unknown
DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
A. Value Investment Framework

Owner Earnings Analysis (3)

Owner earnings TTM: $11.04M
Linear Growth: -50.0%
📊 Click to view full HCC Owner Earnings analysis & methodology →
Owner Earnings Per Share:$0.21
Owner Earnings Yield:$0.20

Growth Assessment (1)

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:-$50.00

Damodaran Growth Analysis (4)

Reinvestment Rate:59.9%
Fundamental Growth Rate (g):6.1%
Market-Implied Growth Rate:10.4%
Brina Gap:
-4.3%
☷ Click to view full HCC Brina Gap analysis →
LOW CONF

Intrinsic Value Models (1)

Intrinsic Value:
$49.25M
📊 Click to view full HCC DCF valuation →

Margin of Safety (1)

Margin Of Safety:
-100.0%
📊 Click to view full HCC valuation analysis →

Return Scenarios (2)

Theoretical 5-Year Return:
-69.0%
📊 Click to view full HCC expected return analysis →
Forward Expected Return (Yield + Growth):
6.3%
📊 Click to view full HCC expected return analysis →

Investment Assessment (1)

Buffett Assessment:Overvalued
B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (3)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):-1.1%
Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-36.2%
Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):-31.5%

Cash Flow Growth Rates (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-50.0%
Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-43.3%

Other Growth Rates (3)

Gross Profit Growth Rate (Linear):-16.8%
Book Value Growth Rate (Linear):16.8%
Owner Earnings Growth Rate:-$50.00
C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:HCC
Company Name:Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
Sector:Materials
Industry:Mining
Exchange:NYSE
Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A
Price Category:high
Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:52.83M
Shares Outstanding Basic:52.83M
Shares Outstanding Diluted:52.87M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0
Last Updated:2026-08-30 06:21:18 UTC
Data Timestamp:2026-08-30T06:21:18.221007
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