NASDAQ
According to Zyberno, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) shows a Value Trap signal — POOR BUSINESS (28/100) with an apparent Margin of Safety of +36.8%, but a Brina Gap of -16.1% reveals the current price still assumes faster growth than the business can deliver.
According to Zyberno's DCF model, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) trades at $12.51 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $19.80 — a +36.8% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $60.38M TTM, projected at 10.7% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. The Brina Gap of -16.1% weakens the case: based on the company's ROIC (1.4%) and reinvestment rate (703.9%), the business can fundamentally grow at 9.9% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects 26.0%. This places FWRG in the Value Trap quadrant of the Brina Matrix — a value-trap signal where the apparent discount is undermined by overpriced growth expectations. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of 21.3% annually.
Over the trailing twelve months, FWRG generated $60.38M in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $149.69M invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: 703.9%. Owner Earnings have grown at 10.7% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.