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ZYBERNO

Stock Report

Updated Aug 30, 2026

FORWARD AIR CORPORATION (FWRD)

NASDAQ

$16.99

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →

Is it a great business? Is it getting better?

23.0/100

POOR BUSINESS

FORWARD AIR CORPORATION (FWRD) scores 23/100 — concerning metrics indicating significant structural or financial risks.

📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +

The Zyberno Score answers one question: "Is this a quality business worth owning?" It's a 0-100 investment grade that evaluates business fundamentals across four critical dimensions, based on principles from Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, and Charlie Munger.

The 4 Core Categories (25 points each):

1. PROFITABILITY (25 pts)

Metrics: ROE, ROIC, Net Margin, Operating Margin
Thresholds: ROE >20% excellent • ROIC >20% excellent • Net Margin >20% excellent • Operating Margin >25% excellent

2. FINANCIAL STRENGTH (25 pts)

Metrics: Debt-to-Equity, Current Ratio, Interest Coverage, Altman Z-Score
Thresholds: D/E <0.3 excellent • Current Ratio >2.5 excellent • Interest Coverage >10x excellent • Altman Z >3.0 safe

3. CASH FLOW QUALITY (25 pts)

Metrics: Free Cash Flow, OCF vs Net Income, FCF Margin
Thresholds: Positive & growing FCF excellent • OCF/NI >1.2x excellent (cash earnings exceed accounting)

4. GROWTH & CONSISTENCY (25 pts)

Metrics: Revenue Growth, Net Income Growth, FCF Growth, Piotroski F-Score
Thresholds: Growth via log-linear regression • Piotroski 8-9 excellent, 6-7 good

Score Interpretation:

75-100

GREAT BUSINESS

65-74

GOOD BUSINESS

50-64

AVERAGE BUSINESS

30-49

WEAK BUSINESS

0-29

POOR BUSINESS

→ View full FWRD quality analysis & detailed breakdown

VALUATION SIGNAL

MARGIN OF SAFETY

Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?

-100.0%

Overvalued

Growth gap unavailable — insufficient data for reverse DCF calculation.

🎯 Expected Annual Return →

-41.7%

Margin of Safety convergence — your return if the market re-prices to intrinsic value (5-yr annualised)

-3.4%

Yield + growth — what the business alone earns you, even if the market never re-rates

💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +

Margin of Safety measures how much discount or premium you're paying relative to a stock's intrinsic value. It's Benjamin Graham's core principle: the larger the margin, the lower your downside risk.

Formula: (Intrinsic Value − Current Price) ÷ Intrinsic Value × 100%

How We Calculate Intrinsic Value (DCF Method):

Step 1: Calculate current Owner Earnings (OCF − Maintenance CapEx)

Step 2: Calculate company-specific growth rate using log-linear regression on 16 quarters of Owner Earnings

Step 3: Project 10 years forward using the calculated growth rate

Step 4: Discount each year's cash flow to present value using 10% discount rate

Step 5: Calculate terminal value using 3% perpetual growth rate

Step 6: Sum all discounted cash flows = Intrinsic Value

What The Percentages Mean:

+50% or more

EXCELLENT — Very undervalued

+25% to +50%

GOOD — Attractive discount

0% to +25%

FAIR — Reasonable value

0% to -25%

CAUTION — Slight premium

-25% or worse

POOR — Overvalued

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get." — Warren Buffett

→ View full FWRD valuation analysis · → View full FWRD Brina Gap analysis

📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in.

Formula: Fundamental Growth Rate − Market-Implied Growth Rate

The Two Components:

Fundamental Growth Rate = ROIC × Reinvestment Rate

What the business can sustainably grow at based on how much it reinvests and what return it earns on that capital. Grounded in historical financials.

Market-Implied Growth Rate = Reverse DCF

The growth rate the current Enterprise Value implicitly assumes. Calculated by back-solving a 10-year DCF model (10% WACC, 3% terminal growth) until the present value of projected cash flows equals EV.

What The Gap Means:

Gap > +5% Market Underestimates — potential upside

+2% to +5% Slight Underestimate

-2% to +2% Fairly Priced — market consensus matches fundamentals

-5% to -2% Slight Overestimate

Gap < -5% Market Overestimates — price embeds optimism fundamentals don't support

A positive gap (market underestimates) combined with a positive Margin of Safety is the strongest combined signal — the business is both cheap historically and forward economics are stronger than the price suggests.

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):CRITICAL (-320.6%)

Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):EXCELLENT (0.00x)

Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):CRITICAL (-5.7%)

Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):CRITICAL (-7.0%)

📊 Valuation Trilogy

Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis

Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis

Zyberno's Verdict

FORWARD AIR CORPORATION (FWRD) stock report — Zyberno Score 23/100 (POOR BUSINESS), Margin of Safety -100.0%, -42% expected annual return. Full financial analysis on Zyberno.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, FORWARD AIR CORPORATION (FWRD) trades at $16.99 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $4.02 — a -100.0% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $29.29M TTM, projected at -25.0% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of -41.7% annually.

Over the trailing twelve months, FWRD generated $29.29M in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $24.16M invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: 114.0%. Owner Earnings have declined at 25.0% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:16.99

Market Cap:$551.85M

Valuation Multiples (2)

P/S Ratio:0.22x

Peg Ratio:-999.00x

Enterprise Metrics (3)

Enterprise Value:$2.21B

Ev Ebitda Ratio:204.78x

Pfcf Ratio:21.62x

Price Action & Momentum (1)

% of 52-Week High:53.1%

B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (5)

ROE:

-320.6%

📊 Click to view full FWRD ROE analysis →

ROA:-10.8%

Roic:

-7.0%

📊 Click to view full FWRD ROIC analysis →

Reinvestment Rate:114.0%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-8.0%

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:-5.7%

Net Margin Ttm:-11.4%

Ebitda Margin:0.4%

TTM Performance (2)

Operating Margin Ttm:-5.7%

Net Margin Ttm:-11.4%

Yield Metrics (3)

Earnings Yield:-$45.61

Owner Earnings Yield:$4.63

Dividend Yield:0.0%

C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Earnings Surprise (SUE) (3)

Earnings Surprise (SUE):

-0.64

📊 Click to view full FWRD Earnings Surprise analysis →

EPS Surprise vs Expected:-622.4%

Latest Earnings Filed:2026-08-05

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):11.8%

Earnings Growth (Linear) (1)

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-27.8%

Cash Flow Growth (Linear) (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-20.3%

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-42.2%

Operating Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):-34.1%

D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:1.32x

Quick Ratio:1.32x

Cash Ratio:0.32x

Leverage Analysis (1)

Debt To Ebitda:166.62x

Coverage Ratios (2)

Interest Coverage Ratio:0.21x

Times Interest Earned:0.21

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:141,545,000.00

Cash And Cash Equivalents:139,448,000.00

Long Term Debt:$1.69B

Net Debt:$1.66B

DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS

A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $2.52B

Linear Growth: 11.8%

📊 Click to view full FWRD Revenue analysis & methodology →

Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$0.00

Profitability Breakdown (2)

$0.00

Operating income TTM: -$144.45M

Linear Growth: -34.1%

📊 Click to view full FWRD Operating Income analysis & methodology →

Bottom Line Performance (3)

Net income TTM: -$286.20M

Linear Growth: -27.8%

📊 Click to view full FWRD Net Income analysis & methodology →

Income Before Tax:-$350.92M

Ebitda Ttm:10,808,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:2,686,807,000.00

R And D Expense:0.00

Sga Expense:0.00

Income Tax Expense:-$6.69M

Interest Expense:177,182,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:0.0%

Sga To Revenue Percentage:0.0%

Ebitda Margin:0.4%

B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$2.41B

Current Assets:$583.12M

Ppe Net:0.00

Goodwill:278,706,000.00

Intangible Assets:$860.92M

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:2,533,511,000.00

Current Liabilities:441,571,000.00

Long Term Debt:$1.69B

Short Term Debt:$107.50M

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:-$122.67M

Retained Earnings:-$690.32M

Common Stock:50,000,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:369,469,000.00

Inventory:0.00

Accounts Payable:118,651,000.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:13,184,000.00

Stock Based Compensation:3,541,000.00

C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

Operating cash flow TTM: $53.44M

Linear Growth: -42.2%

Free cash flow TTM: $29.29M

Linear Growth: -20.3%

📊 Click to view full FWRD Free Cash Flow analysis & methodology →

Investment Activities (2)

Investing Cash Flow:-$5.52M

Capital Expenditures Ttm:24,156,000.00

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:-$4.91M

Dividends Paid Ttm:0.00

Stock Repurchase:0.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:846,000.00

Long Term Debt Issuance:$0.00

Long Term Debt Repayments:$0.00

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:155,255,000.00

DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS

A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (3)

EPS (Basic TTM):-8.89

Eps diluted TTM: -$8.89

Linear Growth: -25.2%

📊 Click to view full FWRD EPS analysis & methodology →

Earnings Per Share Ttm:-$8.81

Revenue & Cash Per Share (3)

Sales Per Share Ttm:77.52

Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$1.37

Fcf Per Share Ttm:0.90

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:-$3.78

Cash Per Share:4.29

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:-999.00x

B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:0.95x

Working Capital Turnover Ttm:17.79x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:6.82x

Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:53.56

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:-999.00x

Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:-999.00

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:17.20

Cash Conversion Cycle:-962.64

C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:20.00

Quality Score:30.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x

Volatility Category:unknown

DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

A. Value Investment Framework

Owner Earnings Analysis (3)

Owner earnings TTM: $29.29M

Linear Growth: -25.0%

📊 Click to view full FWRD Owner Earnings analysis & methodology →

Owner Earnings Per Share:$0.90

Owner Earnings Yield:$4.63

Growth Assessment (1)

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:-$24.95

Damodaran Growth Analysis (2)

Reinvestment Rate:114.0%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-8.0%

Intrinsic Value Models (1)

Intrinsic Value:

$130.62M

📊 Click to view full FWRD DCF valuation →

Margin of Safety (1)

Margin Of Safety:

-100.0%

📊 Click to view full FWRD valuation analysis →

Return Scenarios (2)

Theoretical 5-Year Return:

-41.7%

📊 Click to view full FWRD expected return analysis →

Forward Expected Return (Yield + Growth):

-3.4%

📊 Click to view full FWRD expected return analysis →

Investment Assessment (1)

Buffett Assessment:Overvalued

B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (3)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):11.8%

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-27.8%

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):-34.1%

Cash Flow Growth Rates (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-20.3%

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-42.2%

Other Growth Rates (2)

Book Value Growth Rate (Linear):-39.7%

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:-$24.95

C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:FWRD

Company Name:FORWARD AIR CORPORATION

Sector:Unknown

Industry:Arrangement of Transportation of Freight & Cargo

Exchange:NASDAQ

Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A

Price Category:medium

Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:32.48M

Shares Outstanding Basic:32.48M

Shares Outstanding Diluted:32.48M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0

Last Updated:2026-08-30 20:37:00 UTC

Data Timestamp:2026-08-17T22:22:25.871633