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ZYBERNO
Stock Report
Updated Jun 5, 2026

FIRST SAVINGS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. (FSFG)

Financial Services • NASDAQ

$33.98

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →
Is it a great business? Is it getting better?
48.0/100
WEAK BUSINESS
FIRST SAVINGS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. (FSFG) scores 48/100 — weak fundamentals with mixed indicators requiring careful analysis before acting.
📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +
VALUATION SIGNAL
⚠
Business Model Limitation
FIRST SAVINGS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. operates in the Banking industry. Owner Earnings-based DCF analysis — the foundation of both the Margin of Safety and the Brina Gap — is not well-suited to companies whose business model is structurally built around leverage: banks, insurers, mortgage companies, and REITs. These businesses are typically valued using sector-specific metrics such as Price-to-Book, Price-to-FFO, or Net Asset Value. Treat these signals as directional only.
MARGIN OF SAFETY
Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?
-100.0%
Overvalued
Is the market underestimating or overestimating what this business is capable of going forward?
+3.2%
Slight Underestimate
↑ UNDER
+50%
Brina Gap
-50%
↓ OVER
← OVERVALUED
-100%
Margin of Safety
UNDERVALUED →
+100%
UNDERESTIMATED
GROWTH
DOUBLE
DISCOUNT
EXPENSIVE
HYPE
VALUE
TRAP
0,0
MoS -100.0%  ·  Gap +3.2%

Two independent signals. One tells you if the stock is cheap relative to what the business has historically generated for owners — the Margin of Safety. The other tells you if the market is underestimating what the business is capable of going forward — the Brina Gap.

They are calculated from completely different data sources and answer completely different questions. The Margin of Safety reads the past. The Brina Gap reads the present economics and compares them against what the current stock price is assuming about the future.

When both point in the same direction simultaneously — DOUBLE DISCOUNT — the probability of genuine mispricing is high. The market is wrong on two independent dimensions at once, which is rare and significant.

The most dangerous scenario is not an overvalued stock — those are easy to avoid. It is a VALUE TRAP: a stock that appears cheap historically but where the market is already pricing in stronger growth than the business fundamentals support. Without the Brina Gap signal this looks identical to a genuine opportunity. The matrix separates them instantly.

The Brina Gap is the more powerful of the two signals. Most investors and analytical tools focus on valuation alone — whether a stock is cheap relative to earnings. Far fewer systematically compare what the business economics structurally support against what the stock price is actually assuming. That gap between fundamental growth potential and market expectations is where the most reliable mispricings live, and where this matrix earns its value.

Use this as your first filter. A stock in DOUBLE DISCOUNT territory is worth investigating. Everything else requires either more caution or a specific reason to act.

EXPENSIVE WITH GROWTH POTENTIAL
FIRST SAVINGS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. (FSFG) trades at a premium (Margin of Safety -100.0%) despite the market underestimating forward growth (Brina Gap +3.2%). No margin of safety at current price.
⚠ Owner Earnings and Free Cash Flow show moderate divergence (0.79×). Intrinsic Value and Brina Gap may be understated — maintenance capex assumptions may be too conservative. Treat both signals as lower bounds.
🎯 Expected Annual Return →
-44.8%
5-year annualised assuming price converges to intrinsic value
💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +
📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):AVERAGE (12.9%)
Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):EXCELLENT (0.05x)
Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):GOOD (21.1%)
Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):GOOD (15.8%)
📊 Valuation Trilogy
Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis
💎
Intrinsic Value
DCF Fair Value
$6.31
🛡️
Margin of Safety
Valuation Gap
-100.0%
🎯
Expected Return
Projected Annual
-44.8%
Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis
Zyberno's Verdict

According to Zyberno, FIRST SAVINGS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. (FSFG) shows Underestimated Growth — WEAK BUSINESS (48/100) with a Brina Gap of +3.2% showing underestimated forward growth, but no margin of safety at -100.0%.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, FIRST SAVINGS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. (FSFG) trades at $33.98 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $6.31 — a -100.0% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $16.05M TTM, projected at -22.6% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. The Brina Gap of +3.2% strengthens the case: based on the company's ROIC (15.8%) and reinvestment rate (-6.3%), the business can fundamentally grow at -1.0% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects -4.2%. This places FSFG in the Underestimated Growth quadrant of the Brina Matrix, where growth is underestimated but no margin of safety on existing cash. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of -44.8% annually.

Over the trailing twelve months, FSFG generated $16.05M in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $4.28M paid as dividends. Reinvestment rate: -6.3%. Owner Earnings have declined at 22.6% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:33.98
Market Cap:$233.82M

Valuation Multiples (4)

P/E Ratio:
10.23x
📊 Click to view full FSFG P/E analysis →
P/B Ratio:1.27x
P/S Ratio:1.83x
Peg Ratio:0.11x

Enterprise Metrics (3)

Enterprise Value:$186.66M
Ev Ebitda Ratio:6.39x
Pfcf Ratio:2.99x
B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (7)

ROE:
12.9%
📊 Click to view full FSFG ROE analysis →
ROA:1.0%
Roic:
15.8%
📊 Click to view full FSFG ROIC analysis →
Reinvestment Rate:-6.3%
Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-1.0%
Market-Implied Growth Rate:-4.2%
Brina Gap:
3.2%
☷ Click to view full FSFG Brina Gap analysis →
MOD CONF

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:21.1%
Net Margin Ttm:18.2%
Ebitda Margin:22.9%

TTM Performance (2)

Operating Margin Ttm:21.1%
Net Margin Ttm:18.2%

Yield Metrics (3)

Earnings Yield:$9.77
Owner Earnings Yield:$6.86
Dividend Yield:1.8%
C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Earnings Surprise (SUE) (3)

Earnings Surprise (SUE):
+0.61
📊 Click to view full FSFG Earnings Surprise analysis →
EPS Surprise vs Expected:614.5%
Latest Earnings Filed:2025-12-12

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):20.9%

Earnings Growth (Linear) (1)

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):12.5%

Cash Flow Growth (Linear) (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-34.2%
Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-50.0%

Operating Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):19.0%
D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:0.01x
Quick Ratio:0.01x
Cash Ratio:0.03x

Leverage Analysis (3)

Debt To Equity Ttm:0.05x
Debt-to-Equity Ratio:0.05x
Debt To Ebitda:0.17x

Coverage Ratios (2)

Interest Coverage Ratio:0.43x
Times Interest Earned:0.43

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:-1,717,570,000.00
Cash And Cash Equivalents:52,123,000.00
Long Term Debt:$4.55M
Net Debt:-$47.16M
DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS
A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $127.53M
Linear Growth: 20.9%
📊 Click to view full FSFG Revenue analysis & methodology →
Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$0.00

Profitability Breakdown (2)

$0.00
Operating income TTM: $26.86M
Linear Growth: 19.0%
📊 Click to view full FSFG Operating Income analysis & methodology →

Bottom Line Performance (3)

Net income TTM: $23.16M
Linear Growth: 12.5%
📊 Click to view full FSFG Net Income analysis & methodology →
Income Before Tax:$26.86M
Ebitda Ttm:29,209,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:56,962,000.00
R And D Expense:0.00
Sga Expense:0.00
Income Tax Expense:$3.70M
Interest Expense:62,219,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:0.0%
Sga To Revenue Percentage:0.0%
Ebitda Margin:22.9%
B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$2.42B
Current Assets:$18.62M
Ppe Net:25,594,000.00
Goodwill:9,848,000.00
Intangible Assets:$275.00K

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:2,232,853,000.00
Current Liabilities:1,736,194,000.00
Long Term Debt:$4.55M
Short Term Debt:$412.00K

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:$183.82M
Retained Earnings:$187.97M
Common Stock:20,000,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:0.00
Inventory:0.00
Accounts Payable:0.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:0.00
Stock Based Compensation:0.00
C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

Operating cash flow TTM: $79.13M
Linear Growth: -50.0%
Free cash flow TTM: $78.25M
Linear Growth: -34.2%
📊 Click to view full FSFG Free Cash Flow analysis & methodology →

Investment Activities (1)

Investing Cash Flow:$79.94M

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:-$56.04M
Dividends Paid Ttm:4,281,000.00
Stock Repurchase:0.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:39,000.00
Long Term Debt Issuance:$0.00
Long Term Debt Repayments:$6.00K

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:2,346,000.00
DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS
A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (3)

EPS (Basic TTM):3.37
Eps diluted TTM: $3.32
Linear Growth: 2.9%
📊 Click to view full FSFG EPS analysis & methodology →
Earnings Per Share Ttm:$3.37

Revenue & Cash Per Share (2)

Sales Per Share Ttm:18.53
Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$11.50

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:$26.71
Cash Per Share:7.57

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:19.23x
B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:0.05x
Working Capital Turnover Ttm:-999.00x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:-999.00x
Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:-999.00

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:-999.00x
Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:-999.00

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:-999.00
Cash Conversion Cycle:-999.00
C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:60.00
Quality Score:90.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x
Volatility Category:unknown
DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
A. Value Investment Framework

Owner Earnings Analysis (3)

Owner earnings TTM: $16.05M
Linear Growth: -22.6%
📊 Click to view full FSFG Owner Earnings analysis & methodology →
Owner Earnings Per Share:$2.33
Owner Earnings Yield:$6.86

Growth Assessment (1)

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:-$22.64

Damodaran Growth Analysis (4)

Reinvestment Rate:-6.3%
Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-1.0%
Market-Implied Growth Rate:-4.2%
Brina Gap:
3.2%
☷ Click to view full FSFG Brina Gap analysis →
MOD CONF

Intrinsic Value Models (1)

Intrinsic Value:
$43.40M
📊 Click to view full FSFG DCF valuation →

Margin of Safety (1)

Margin Of Safety:
-100.0%
📊 Click to view full FSFG valuation analysis →

Return Scenarios (1)

Theoretical 5-Year Return:
-44.8%
📊 Click to view full FSFG expected return analysis →

Investment Assessment (1)

Buffett Assessment:Overvalued
B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (3)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):20.9%
Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):12.5%
Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):19.0%

Cash Flow Growth Rates (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-34.2%
Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-50.0%

Other Growth Rates (2)

Book Value Growth Rate (Linear):1.9%
Owner Earnings Growth Rate:-$22.64
C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:FSFG
Company Name:FIRST SAVINGS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.
Sector:Financial Services
Industry:Banking
Exchange:NASDAQ
Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A
Price Category:medium
Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:6.88M
Shares Outstanding Basic:6.88M
Shares Outstanding Diluted:6.98M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0
Last Updated:2026-06-05 01:30:22 UTC
Data Timestamp:2026-06-05T01:30:22.835413
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