NYSE
According to Zyberno, ETSY, INC (ETSY) is not a buy — WEAK BUSINESS (49/100) with a negative Margin of Safety of -3.5% and a Brina Gap of -37.9% showing the market already prices in more growth than the fundamentals support.
According to Zyberno's DCF model, ETSY, INC (ETSY) trades at $83.59 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $80.78 — a -3.5% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $711.35M TTM, projected at -2.5% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. The Brina Gap of -37.9% weakens the case: based on the company's ROIC (56.2%) and reinvestment rate (-48.3%), the business can fundamentally grow at -27.1% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects 10.8%. This places ETSY in the Expensive Hype quadrant of the Brina Matrix, the most fragile combination — overvalued on cash AND overpriced on growth. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of -3.1% annually.
Over the trailing twelve months, ETSY generated $711.35M in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $145.22M returned via share buybacks, $13.62M invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: -48.3%. Owner Earnings have declined at 2.5% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.