Financial Services • NYSE
According to Zyberno, EQUITY LIFESTYLE PROPERTIES, INC. (ELS) is not a buy — GREAT BUSINESS (75/100) with a negative Margin of Safety of -100.0% and a Brina Gap of -15.9% showing the market already prices in more growth than the fundamentals support.
According to Zyberno's DCF model, EQUITY LIFESTYLE PROPERTIES, INC. (ELS) trades at $63.82 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $20.73 — a -100.0% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $368.75M TTM, projected at -2.2% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. The Brina Gap of -15.9% weakens the case: based on the company's ROIC (16.0%) and reinvestment rate (9.5%), the business can fundamentally grow at 1.5% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects 17.4%. This places ELS in the Expensive Hype quadrant of the Brina Matrix, the most fragile combination — overvalued on cash AND overpriced on growth. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of -21.9% annually.
Over the trailing twelve months, ELS generated $368.75M in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $396.56M paid as dividends, $237.17M invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: 9.5%. Owner Earnings have declined at 2.2% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.