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ZYBERNO

Stock Report

Updated Aug 30, 2026

EMERGENT BIOSOLUTIONS INC. (EBS)

Healthcare • NYSE

$5.91

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →

Is it a great business? Is it getting better?

28.0/100

POOR BUSINESS

EMERGENT BIOSOLUTIONS INC. (EBS) scores 28/100 — concerning metrics indicating significant structural or financial risks.

📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +

The Zyberno Score answers one question: "Is this a quality business worth owning?" It's a 0-100 investment grade that evaluates business fundamentals across four critical dimensions, based on principles from Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, and Charlie Munger.

The 4 Core Categories (25 points each):

1. PROFITABILITY (25 pts)

Metrics: ROE, ROIC, Net Margin, Operating Margin
Thresholds: ROE >20% excellent • ROIC >20% excellent • Net Margin >20% excellent • Operating Margin >25% excellent

2. FINANCIAL STRENGTH (25 pts)

Metrics: Debt-to-Equity, Current Ratio, Interest Coverage, Altman Z-Score
Thresholds: D/E <0.3 excellent • Current Ratio >2.5 excellent • Interest Coverage >10x excellent • Altman Z >3.0 safe

3. CASH FLOW QUALITY (25 pts)

Metrics: Free Cash Flow, OCF vs Net Income, FCF Margin
Thresholds: Positive & growing FCF excellent • OCF/NI >1.2x excellent (cash earnings exceed accounting)

4. GROWTH & CONSISTENCY (25 pts)

Metrics: Revenue Growth, Net Income Growth, FCF Growth, Piotroski F-Score
Thresholds: Growth via log-linear regression • Piotroski 8-9 excellent, 6-7 good

Score Interpretation:

75-100

GREAT BUSINESS

65-74

GOOD BUSINESS

50-64

AVERAGE BUSINESS

30-49

WEAK BUSINESS

0-29

POOR BUSINESS

→ View full EBS quality analysis & detailed breakdown

VALUATION SIGNAL

MARGIN OF SAFETY

Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?

+92.8%

Undervalued

Growth gap unavailable — insufficient data for reverse DCF calculation.

🎯 Expected Annual Return →

113.8%

Margin of Safety convergence — your return if the market re-prices to intrinsic value (5-yr annualised)

47.3%

Yield + growth — what the business alone earns you, even if the market never re-rates

💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +

Margin of Safety measures how much discount or premium you're paying relative to a stock's intrinsic value. It's Benjamin Graham's core principle: the larger the margin, the lower your downside risk.

Formula: (Intrinsic Value − Current Price) ÷ Intrinsic Value × 100%

How We Calculate Intrinsic Value (DCF Method):

Step 1: Calculate current Owner Earnings (OCF − Maintenance CapEx)

Step 2: Calculate company-specific growth rate using log-linear regression on 16 quarters of Owner Earnings

Step 3: Project 10 years forward using the calculated growth rate

Step 4: Discount each year's cash flow to present value using 10% discount rate

Step 5: Calculate terminal value using 3% perpetual growth rate

Step 6: Sum all discounted cash flows = Intrinsic Value

What The Percentages Mean:

+50% or more

EXCELLENT — Very undervalued

+25% to +50%

GOOD — Attractive discount

0% to +25%

FAIR — Reasonable value

0% to -25%

CAUTION — Slight premium

-25% or worse

POOR — Overvalued

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get." — Warren Buffett

→ View full EBS valuation analysis · → View full EBS Brina Gap analysis

📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in.

Formula: Fundamental Growth Rate − Market-Implied Growth Rate

The Two Components:

Fundamental Growth Rate = ROIC × Reinvestment Rate

What the business can sustainably grow at based on how much it reinvests and what return it earns on that capital. Grounded in historical financials.

Market-Implied Growth Rate = Reverse DCF

The growth rate the current Enterprise Value implicitly assumes. Calculated by back-solving a 10-year DCF model (10% WACC, 3% terminal growth) until the present value of projected cash flows equals EV.

What The Gap Means:

Gap > +5% Market Underestimates — potential upside

+2% to +5% Slight Underestimate

-2% to +2% Fairly Priced — market consensus matches fundamentals

-5% to -2% Slight Overestimate

Gap < -5% Market Overestimates — price embeds optimism fundamentals don't support

A positive gap (market underestimates) combined with a positive Margin of Safety is the strongest combined signal — the business is both cheap historically and forward economics are stronger than the price suggests.

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):CRITICAL (-24.5%)

Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):POOR (1.75x)

Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):CRITICAL (-1.9%)

Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):CRITICAL (-1.4%)

📊 Valuation Trilogy

Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis

Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis

Zyberno's Verdict

EMERGENT BIOSOLUTIONS INC. (EBS) stock report — Zyberno Score 28/100 (POOR BUSINESS), Margin of Safety +92.8%, 114% expected annual return. Full financial analysis on Zyberno.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, EMERGENT BIOSOLUTIONS INC. (EBS) trades at $5.91 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $81.65 — a +92.8% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $135.40M TTM, projected at 25.7% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of 113.8% annually.

Over the trailing twelve months, EBS generated $135.40M in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $9.00M returned via share buybacks, $12.60M invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: 754.0%. Owner Earnings have grown at 25.7% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:5.91

Market Cap:$304.96M

Valuation Multiples (3)

P/B Ratio:0.89x

P/S Ratio:0.40x

Peg Ratio:-999.00x

Enterprise Metrics (3)

Enterprise Value:$756.96M

Ev Ebitda Ratio:5.88x

Pfcf Ratio:1.73x

Price Action & Momentum (3)

12-1 Momentum:

+23.5% (72th pctile)

📈 Click to view full EBS Momentum analysis →

Momentum Percentile:72 / 100

% of 52-Week High:42.0%

B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (5)

ROE:

-24.5%

📊 Click to view full EBS ROE analysis →

ROA:-9.3%

Roic:

-1.4%

📊 Click to view full EBS ROIC analysis →

Reinvestment Rate:754.0%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-10.3%

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:-1.9%

Net Margin Ttm:-15.7%

Ebitda Margin:16.7%

TTM Performance (3)

Gross Margin Ttm:45.1%

Operating Margin Ttm:-1.9%

Net Margin Ttm:-15.7%

Yield Metrics (3)

Earnings Yield:-$54.73

Owner Earnings Yield:$57.67

Dividend Yield:0.0%

C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Earnings Surprise (SUE) (3)

Earnings Surprise (SUE):

-1.13

📊 Click to view full EBS Earnings Surprise analysis →

EPS Surprise vs Expected:-2,485.2%

Latest Earnings Filed:2026-08-06

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):-11.9%

Earnings Growth (Linear) (1)

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-50.0%

Cash Flow Growth (Linear) (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):28.1%

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):14.4%

Operating Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):-47.3%

D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:5.42x

Quick Ratio:2.95x

Cash Ratio:1.14x

Leverage Analysis (3)

Debt To Equity Ttm:1.75x

Debt-to-Equity Ratio:1.75x

Debt To Ebitda:4.60x

Coverage Ratios (2)

Interest Coverage Ratio:1.97x

Times Interest Earned:1.97

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:543,200,000.00

Cash And Cash Equivalents:139,700,000.00

Long Term Debt:$581.80M

Net Debt:$452.00M

DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS

A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $770.20M

Linear Growth: -11.9%

📊 Click to view full EBS Revenue analysis & methodology →

Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$339.90M

Profitability Breakdown (2)

Gross profit TTM: $347.20M

Linear Growth: 14.3%

📊 Click to view full EBS Gross Profit analysis & methodology →

Operating income TTM: -$14.50M

Linear Growth: -47.3%

📊 Click to view full EBS Operating Income analysis & methodology →

Bottom Line Performance (3)

Net income TTM: -$120.80M

Linear Growth: -50.0%

📊 Click to view full EBS Net Income analysis & methodology →

Income Before Tax:-$70.10M

Ebitda Ttm:128,700,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:836,200,000.00

R And D Expense:45,300,000.00

Sga Expense:181,200,000.00

Income Tax Expense:$39.40M

Interest Expense:50,900,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:19.3%

Sga To Revenue Percentage:77.3%

Ebitda Margin:16.7%

B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$1.12B

Current Assets:$666.00M

Ppe Net:178,000,000.00

Goodwill:0.00

Intangible Assets:$261.80M

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:775,400,000.00

Current Liabilities:122,800,000.00

Long Term Debt:$581.80M

Short Term Debt:$9.90M

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:$341.40M

Retained Earnings:-$333.20M

Common Stock:200,000,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:190,000,000.00

Inventory:303,600,000.00

Accounts Payable:50,200,000.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:20,900,000.00

Stock Based Compensation:6,900,000.00

C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

Operating cash flow TTM: $148.00M

Linear Growth: 14.4%

Free cash flow TTM: $135.40M

Linear Growth: 28.1%

📊 Click to view full EBS Free Cash Flow analysis & methodology →

Investment Activities (2)

Investing Cash Flow:-$2.40M

Capital Expenditures Ttm:12,600,000.00

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:-$11.40M

Dividends Paid Ttm:0.00

Stock Repurchase:9,000,000.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:400,000.00

Long Term Debt Issuance:$0.00

Long Term Debt Repayments:$0.00

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:143,200,000.00

DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS

A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (3)

EPS (Basic TTM):-2.38

Eps diluted TTM: -$2.49

Linear Growth: -50.0%

📊 Click to view full EBS EPS analysis & methodology →

Earnings Per Share Ttm:-$2.34

Revenue & Cash Per Share (3)

Sales Per Share Ttm:14.93

Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$3.31

Fcf Per Share Ttm:2.62

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:$6.62

Cash Per Share:2.71

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:-999.00x

B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:0.59x

Working Capital Turnover Ttm:1.42x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:4.05x

Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:90.04

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:1.12x

Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:326.02

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:53.91

Cash Conversion Cycle:362.15

C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:40.00

Quality Score:85.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x

Volatility Category:unknown

DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

A. Value Investment Framework

Owner Earnings Analysis (3)

Owner earnings TTM: $135.40M

Linear Growth: 25.7%

📊 Click to view full EBS Owner Earnings analysis & methodology →

Owner Earnings Per Share:$2.62

Owner Earnings Yield:$57.67

Growth Assessment (1)

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:$25.69

Damodaran Growth Analysis (2)

Reinvestment Rate:754.0%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-10.3%

Intrinsic Value Models (1)

Intrinsic Value:

$4.21B

📊 Click to view full EBS DCF valuation →

Margin of Safety (1)

Margin Of Safety:

92.8%

📊 Click to view full EBS valuation analysis →

Return Scenarios (2)

Theoretical 5-Year Return:

113.8%

📊 Click to view full EBS expected return analysis →

Forward Expected Return (Yield + Growth):

47.3%

📊 Click to view full EBS expected return analysis →

Investment Assessment (1)

Buffett Assessment:Excellent margin of safety

B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (3)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):-11.9%

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-50.0%

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):-47.3%

Cash Flow Growth Rates (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):28.1%

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):14.4%

Other Growth Rates (3)

Gross Profit Growth Rate (Linear):14.3%

Book Value Growth Rate (Linear):-27.3%

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:$25.69

C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:EBS

Company Name:EMERGENT BIOSOLUTIONS INC.

Sector:Healthcare

Industry:Pharmaceuticals

Exchange:NYSE

Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A

Price Category:low

Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:51.60M

Shares Outstanding Basic:51.60M

Shares Outstanding Diluted:51.60M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0

Last Updated:2026-08-30 18:32:46 UTC

Data Timestamp:2026-08-17T18:18:24.261440