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ZYBERNO

Stock Report

Updated Sep 1, 2026

Diversified Energy Company (DEC)

Energy • NYSE

$14.75

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →

Is it a great business? Is it getting better?

19.0/100

POOR BUSINESS

Diversified Energy Company (DEC) scores 19/100 — concerning metrics indicating significant structural or financial risks.

📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +

The Zyberno Score answers one question: "Is this a quality business worth owning?" It's a 0-100 investment grade that evaluates business fundamentals across four critical dimensions, based on principles from Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, and Charlie Munger.

The 4 Core Categories (25 points each):

1. PROFITABILITY (25 pts)

Metrics: ROE, ROIC, Net Margin, Operating Margin
Thresholds: ROE >20% excellent • ROIC >20% excellent • Net Margin >20% excellent • Operating Margin >25% excellent

2. FINANCIAL STRENGTH (25 pts)

Metrics: Debt-to-Equity, Current Ratio, Interest Coverage, Altman Z-Score
Thresholds: D/E <0.3 excellent • Current Ratio >2.5 excellent • Interest Coverage >10x excellent • Altman Z >3.0 safe

3. CASH FLOW QUALITY (25 pts)

Metrics: Free Cash Flow, OCF vs Net Income, FCF Margin
Thresholds: Positive & growing FCF excellent • OCF/NI >1.2x excellent (cash earnings exceed accounting)

4. GROWTH & CONSISTENCY (25 pts)

Metrics: Revenue Growth, Net Income Growth, FCF Growth, Piotroski F-Score
Thresholds: Growth via log-linear regression • Piotroski 8-9 excellent, 6-7 good

Score Interpretation:

75-100

GREAT BUSINESS

65-74

GOOD BUSINESS

50-64

AVERAGE BUSINESS

30-49

WEAK BUSINESS

0-29

POOR BUSINESS

→ View full DEC quality analysis & detailed breakdown

VALUATION SIGNAL

MARGIN OF SAFETY

Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?

Margin of Safety unavailable — insufficient data for the owner-earnings DCF.

BRINA GAP ↗

Is the market underestimating or overestimating what this business is capable of going forward?

-1.8%

Fairly Priced

💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +

Margin of Safety measures how much discount or premium you're paying relative to a stock's intrinsic value. It's Benjamin Graham's core principle: the larger the margin, the lower your downside risk.

Formula: (Intrinsic Value − Current Price) ÷ Intrinsic Value × 100%

How We Calculate Intrinsic Value (DCF Method):

Step 1: Calculate current Owner Earnings (OCF − Maintenance CapEx)

Step 2: Calculate company-specific growth rate using log-linear regression on 16 quarters of Owner Earnings

Step 3: Project 10 years forward using the calculated growth rate

Step 4: Discount each year's cash flow to present value using 10% discount rate

Step 5: Calculate terminal value using 3% perpetual growth rate

Step 6: Sum all discounted cash flows = Intrinsic Value

What The Percentages Mean:

+50% or more

EXCELLENT — Very undervalued

+25% to +50%

GOOD — Attractive discount

0% to +25%

FAIR — Reasonable value

0% to -25%

CAUTION — Slight premium

-25% or worse

POOR — Overvalued

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get." — Warren Buffett

→ View full DEC valuation analysis · → View full DEC Brina Gap analysis

📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in.

Formula: Fundamental Growth Rate − Market-Implied Growth Rate

The Two Components:

Fundamental Growth Rate = ROIC × Reinvestment Rate

What the business can sustainably grow at based on how much it reinvests and what return it earns on that capital. Grounded in historical financials.

Market-Implied Growth Rate = Reverse DCF

The growth rate the current Enterprise Value implicitly assumes. Calculated by back-solving a 10-year DCF model (10% WACC, 3% terminal growth) until the present value of projected cash flows equals EV.

What The Gap Means:

Gap > +5% Market Underestimates — potential upside

+2% to +5% Slight Underestimate

-2% to +2% Fairly Priced — market consensus matches fundamentals

-5% to -2% Slight Overestimate

Gap < -5% Market Overestimates — price embeds optimism fundamentals don't support

A positive gap (market underestimates) combined with a positive Margin of Safety is the strongest combined signal — the business is both cheap historically and forward economics are stronger than the price suggests.

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):CRITICAL (0.0%)

Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):CRITICAL (3.18x)

Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):CRITICAL (0.0%)

Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):POOR (8.8%)

📊 Valuation Trilogy

Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis

Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis

Zyberno's Verdict

Diversified Energy Company (DEC) stock report — Zyberno Score 19/100 (POOR BUSINESS). Full financial analysis on Zyberno.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, Diversified Energy Company (DEC) shows a Brina Gap of -1.8%, which weakens the case: based on the company's ROIC (8.8%) and reinvestment rate (-20.4%), the business can fundamentally grow at -1.8% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects 0.0%.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:14.75

Market Cap:$1.07B

Valuation Multiples (2)

P/B Ratio:1.11x

Peg Ratio:-999.00x

Enterprise Metrics (3)

Enterprise Value:$3.99B

Ev Ebitda Ratio:6.68x

Pfcf Ratio:3.81x

Price Action & Momentum (2)

12-1 Momentum:

-4.8% (40th pctile)

📈 Click to view full DEC Momentum analysis →

Momentum Percentile:40 / 100

B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (5)

Roic:

8.8%

📊 Click to view full DEC ROIC analysis →

Reinvestment Rate:-20.4%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-1.8%

Market-Implied Growth Rate:0.0%

Brina Gap:

-1.8%

☷ Click to view full DEC Brina Gap analysis →

Margin Analysis (1)

Ebitda Margin:32.6%

Yield Metrics (2)

Earnings Yield:-$999.00

Dividend Yield:8.0%

C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:0.57x

Quick Ratio:0.54x

Cash Ratio:0.01x

Leverage Analysis (3)

Debt To Equity Ttm:3.18x

Debt-to-Equity Ratio:3.18x

Debt To Ebitda:4.91x

Coverage Ratios (2)

Interest Coverage Ratio:8.73x

Times Interest Earned:8.73

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:-418,328,000.00

Cash And Cash Equivalents:8,238,000.00

Long Term Debt:$2.82B

Net Debt:$2.92B

DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS

A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

$1.83B

Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$0.00

Profitability Breakdown (2)

$0.00$535.02M

Bottom Line Performance (3)

$341.12M

Income Before Tax:$387.30M

Ebitda Ttm:596,849,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:340,111,000.00

R And D Expense:0.00

Sga Expense:43,536,000.00

Income Tax Expense:$139.70M

Interest Expense:61,311,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:0.0%

Sga To Revenue Percentage:5.4%

Ebitda Margin:32.6%

B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$6.11B

Current Assets:$551.52M

Ppe Net:458,301,000.00

Goodwill:0.00

Intangible Assets:$3.22M

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:5,148,104,000.00

Current Liabilities:969,846,000.00

Long Term Debt:$2.82B

Short Term Debt:$107.14M

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:$961.58M

Retained Earnings:-$468.26M

Common Stock:350,000,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:407,817,000.00

Inventory:27,801,000.00

Accounts Payable:129,539,000.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:241,194,000.00

Stock Based Compensation:4,906,000.00

C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

$464.62M$280.02M

Investment Activities (1)

Investing Cash Flow:$1.34M

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:-$159.68M

Dividends Paid Ttm:85,005,000.00

Stock Repurchase:0.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:0.00

Long Term Debt Issuance:$690.54M

Long Term Debt Repayments:$747.20M

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:61,832,000.00

DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS

A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (1)

Earnings Per Share Ttm:$4.72

Revenue & Cash Per Share (2)

Sales Per Share Ttm:25.30

Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$6.43

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:$13.30

Cash Per Share:0.11

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:-999.00x

B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:0.30x

Working Capital Turnover Ttm:-999.00x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:4.49x

Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:81.38

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:65.79x

Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:5.55

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:25.85

Cash Conversion Cycle:61.08

C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:0.00

Quality Score:75.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x

Volatility Category:unknown

DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

A. Value Investment Framework

Damodaran Growth Analysis (4)

Reinvestment Rate:-20.4%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-1.8%

Market-Implied Growth Rate:0.0%

Brina Gap:

-1.8%

☷ Click to view full DEC Brina Gap analysis →

B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:DEC

Company Name:Diversified Energy Company

Sector:Energy

Industry:Oil & Gas

Exchange:NYSE

Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A

Price Category:medium

Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:72.30M

Shares Outstanding Basic:72.30M

Shares Outstanding Diluted:74.71M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0

Last Updated:2026-09-01 04:00:51 UTC

Data Timestamp:2026-09-01T04:00:51.707766