Financial Services • NYSE
According to Zyberno, CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP (COF) shows a Value Trap signal — WEAK BUSINESS (48/100) with an apparent Margin of Safety of +82.8%, but a Brina Gap of -42.5% reveals the current price still assumes faster growth than the business can deliver.
According to Zyberno's DCF model, CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP (COF) trades at $216.67 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $1,257.41 — a +82.8% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $27.29B TTM, projected at 18.2% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. The Brina Gap of -42.5% weakens the case: based on the company's ROIC (1.6%) and reinvestment rate (-1,101.9%), the business can fundamentally grow at -18.1% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects 24.3%. This places COF in the Value Trap quadrant of the Brina Matrix — a value-trap signal where the apparent discount is undermined by overpriced growth expectations. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of 68.0% annually.
Over the trailing twelve months, COF generated $27.29B in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $2.79B returned via share buybacks, $1.78B paid as dividends, $1.78B invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: -1,101.9%. Owner Earnings have grown at 18.2% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.