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ZYBERNO
Stock Report
Updated Aug 29, 2026

CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC. (CF)

Materials • NYSE

$125.64
CF Industries Holdings Inc. is an American manufacturer and distributor of hydrogen and nitrogen products for clean energy and agriculture applications, headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois. The company is one of the world's largest producers of ammonia and urea fertilizers, operating nitrogen manufacturing complexes in the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada, and is investing in clean ammonia production using carbon capture and green hydrogen.

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →
Is it a great business? Is it getting better?
76.0/100
GREAT BUSINESS
CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC. (CF) scores 76/100 — exceptional capital returns and consistent cash generation across all measurement periods.
📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +
VALUATION SIGNAL
MARGIN OF SAFETY
Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?
-100.0%
Overvalued
Is the market underestimating or overestimating what this business is capable of going forward?
+4.2%
Slight Underestimate
↑ UNDER
+50%
Brina Gap
-50%
↓ OVER
← OVERVALUED
-100%
Margin of Safety
UNDERVALUED →
+100%
UNDERESTIMATED
GROWTH
DOUBLE
DISCOUNT
EXPENSIVE
HYPE
VALUE
TRAP
0,0
MoS -100.0%  ·  Gap +4.2%

Two independent signals. One tells you if the stock is cheap relative to what the business has historically generated for owners — the Margin of Safety. The other tells you if the market is underestimating what the business is capable of going forward — the Brina Gap.

They are calculated from completely different data sources and answer completely different questions. The Margin of Safety reads the past. The Brina Gap reads the present economics and compares them against what the current stock price is assuming about the future.

When both point in the same direction simultaneously — DOUBLE DISCOUNT — the probability of genuine mispricing is high. The market is wrong on two independent dimensions at once, which is rare and significant.

The most dangerous scenario is not an overvalued stock — those are easy to avoid. It is a VALUE TRAP: a stock that appears cheap historically but where the market is already pricing in stronger growth than the business fundamentals support. Without the Brina Gap signal this looks identical to a genuine opportunity. The matrix separates them instantly.

The Brina Gap is the more powerful of the two signals. Most investors and analytical tools focus on valuation alone — whether a stock is cheap relative to earnings. Far fewer systematically compare what the business economics structurally support against what the stock price is actually assuming. That gap between fundamental growth potential and market expectations is where the most reliable mispricings live, and where this matrix earns its value.

Use this as your first filter. A stock in DOUBLE DISCOUNT territory is worth investigating. Everything else requires either more caution or a specific reason to act.

EXPENSIVE WITH GROWTH POTENTIAL
CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC. (CF) trades at a premium (Margin of Safety -100.0%) despite the market underestimating forward growth (Brina Gap +4.2%). No margin of safety at current price.
🎯 Expected Annual Return →
-29.8%
Margin of Safety convergence — your return if the market re-prices to intrinsic value (5-yr annualised)
6.6%
Brina Gap convergence — your return if the market corrects the growth mispricing the Gap measures
9.5%
Yield + growth — what the business alone earns you, even if the market never re-rates
💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +
📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):EXCELLENT (30.6%)
Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):GOOD (0.38x)
Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):EXCELLENT (41.1%)
Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):EXCELLENT (20.9%)
📊 Valuation Trilogy
Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis
💎
Intrinsic Value
DCF Fair Value
$57.17
🛡️
Margin of Safety
Valuation Gap
-100.0%
🎯
Expected Return
Projected Annual
-29.8%
Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis
Zyberno's Verdict

According to Zyberno, CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC. (CF) shows Underestimated Growth — GREAT BUSINESS (76/100) with a Brina Gap of +4.2% showing underestimated forward growth, but no margin of safety at -100.0%.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC. (CF) trades at $125.64 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $57.17 — a -100.0% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $1.76B TTM, projected at -17.8% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. The Brina Gap of +4.2% strengthens the case: based on the company's ROIC (20.9%) and reinvestment rate (1.9%), the business can fundamentally grow at 0.4% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects -3.8%. This places CF in the Underestimated Growth quadrant of the Brina Matrix, where growth is underestimated but no margin of safety on existing cash. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of -29.8% annually.

Over the trailing twelve months, CF generated $1.76B in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $28.00M returned via share buybacks, $314.00M paid as dividends, $1.04B invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: 1.9%. Owner Earnings have declined at 17.8% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:125.64
Market Cap:$19.30B

Valuation Multiples (4)

P/E Ratio:
9.33x
📊 Click to view full CF P/E analysis →
P/B Ratio:2.16x
P/S Ratio:2.49x
Peg Ratio:0.12x

Enterprise Metrics (3)

Enterprise Value:$22.49B
Ev Ebitda Ratio:5.80x
Pfcf Ratio:11.91x

Price Action & Momentum (3)

12-1 Momentum:
+37.6% (64th pctile)
📈 Click to view full CF Momentum analysis →
Momentum Percentile:64 / 100
% of 52-Week High:88.5%
B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (7)

ROE:
30.6%
📊 Click to view full CF ROE analysis →
ROA:17.2%
Roic:
20.9%
📊 Click to view full CF ROIC analysis →
Reinvestment Rate:1.9%
Fundamental Growth Rate (g):0.4%
Market-Implied Growth Rate:-3.8%
Brina Gap:
4.2%
☷ Click to view full CF Brina Gap analysis →

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:41.1%
Net Margin Ttm:32.3%
Ebitda Margin:50.1%

TTM Performance (3)

Gross Margin Ttm:42.5%
Operating Margin Ttm:41.1%
Net Margin Ttm:32.3%

Yield Metrics (3)

Earnings Yield:$10.71
Owner Earnings Yield:$9.14
Dividend Yield:1.6%
C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Earnings Surprise (SUE) (3)

Earnings Surprise (SUE):
+1.11
📊 Click to view full CF Earnings Surprise analysis →
EPS Surprise vs Expected:83.4%
Latest Earnings Filed:2026-08-06

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):-1.5%

Earnings Growth (Linear) (1)

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):1.7%

Cash Flow Growth (Linear) (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-18.9%
Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-9.0%

Operating Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):2.4%
D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:4.86x
Quick Ratio:4.32x
Cash Ratio:0.86x

Leverage Analysis (3)

Debt To Equity Ttm:0.38x
Debt-to-Equity Ratio:0.38x
Debt To Ebitda:1.00x

Coverage Ratios (2)

Interest Coverage Ratio:13.45x
Times Interest Earned:13.45

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:2,980,000,000.00
Cash And Cash Equivalents:662,000,000.00
Long Term Debt:$3.22B
Net Debt:$3.20B
DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS
A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $7.74B
Linear Growth: -1.5%
📊 Click to view full CF Revenue analysis & methodology →
Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$4.45B

Profitability Breakdown (2)

Gross profit TTM: $3.29B
Linear Growth: -64.0%
📊 Click to view full CF Gross Profit analysis & methodology →
Operating income TTM: $3.18B
Linear Growth: 2.4%
📊 Click to view full CF Operating Income analysis & methodology →

Bottom Line Performance (3)

Net income TTM: $2.50B
Linear Growth: 1.7%
📊 Click to view full CF Net Income analysis & methodology →
Income Before Tax:$3.10B
Ebitda Ttm:3,877,000,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:438,000,000.00
R And D Expense:0.00
Sga Expense:371,000,000.00
Income Tax Expense:$604.00M
Interest Expense:171,000,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:0.0%
Sga To Revenue Percentage:16.7%
Ebitda Margin:50.1%
B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$15.10B
Current Assets:$3.75B
Ppe Net:6,758,000,000.00
Goodwill:2,492,000,000.00
Intangible Assets:$460.00M

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:6,179,000,000.00
Current Liabilities:772,000,000.00
Long Term Debt:$3.22B
Short Term Debt:$642.00M

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:$8.92B
Retained Earnings:$4.83B
Common Stock:500,000,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:718,000,000.00
Inventory:415,000,000.00
Accounts Payable:642,000,000.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:11,000,000.00
Stock Based Compensation:11,000,000.00
C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

Operating cash flow TTM: $2.66B
Linear Growth: -9.0%
Free cash flow TTM: $1.62B
Linear Growth: -18.9%
📊 Click to view full CF Free Cash Flow analysis & methodology →

Investment Activities (2)

Investing Cash Flow:-$225.00M
Capital Expenditures Ttm:1,041,000,000.00

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:-$199.00M
Dividends Paid Ttm:314,000,000.00
Stock Repurchase:28,000,000.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:0.00
Long Term Debt Issuance:$1.00B
Long Term Debt Repayments:$507.00M

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:696,000,000.00
DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS
A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (3)

EPS (Basic TTM):13.49
Eps diluted TTM: $13.46
Linear Growth: 10.5%
📊 Click to view full CF EPS analysis & methodology →
Earnings Per Share Ttm:$16.28

Revenue & Cash Per Share (3)

Sales Per Share Ttm:50.38
Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$17.92
Fcf Per Share Ttm:10.55

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:$58.07
Cash Per Share:4.31

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:13.28x
B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:0.53x
Working Capital Turnover Ttm:2.60x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:10.78x
Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:33.86

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:10.73x
Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:34.03

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:52.65
Cash Conversion Cycle:15.25
C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:80.00
Quality Score:95.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x
Volatility Category:unknown
DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
A. Value Investment Framework

Owner Earnings Analysis (3)

Owner earnings TTM: $1.76B
Linear Growth: -17.8%
📊 Click to view full CF Owner Earnings analysis & methodology →
Owner Earnings Per Share:$11.48
Owner Earnings Yield:$9.14

Growth Assessment (1)

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:-$17.82

Damodaran Growth Analysis (4)

Reinvestment Rate:1.9%
Fundamental Growth Rate (g):0.4%
Market-Implied Growth Rate:-3.8%
Brina Gap:
4.2%
☷ Click to view full CF Brina Gap analysis →

Intrinsic Value Models (1)

Intrinsic Value:
$8.78B
📊 Click to view full CF DCF valuation →

Margin of Safety (1)

Margin Of Safety:
-100.0%
📊 Click to view full CF valuation analysis →

Return Scenarios (2)

Theoretical 5-Year Return:
-29.8%
📊 Click to view full CF expected return analysis →
Forward Expected Return (Yield + Growth):
9.5%
📊 Click to view full CF expected return analysis →

Investment Assessment (1)

Buffett Assessment:Overvalued
B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (3)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):-1.5%
Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):1.7%
Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):2.4%

Cash Flow Growth Rates (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-18.9%
Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-9.0%

Other Growth Rates (3)

Gross Profit Growth Rate (Linear):-0.6%
Book Value Growth Rate (Linear):2.2%
Owner Earnings Growth Rate:-$17.82
C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:CF
Company Name:CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC.
Sector:Materials
Industry:Chemicals
Exchange:NYSE
Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A
Price Category:high
Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:153.60M
Shares Outstanding Basic:153.60M
Shares Outstanding Diluted:153.90M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0
Last Updated:2026-08-29 04:07:03 UTC
Data Timestamp:2026-08-29T04:07:03.955926
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