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ZYBERNO

Stock Report

Updated Aug 31, 2026

Baozun Inc. (BZUN)

Consumer Discretionary • NASDAQ

$3.02

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →

Is it a great business? Is it getting better?

17.0/100

POOR BUSINESS

Baozun Inc. (BZUN) scores 17/100 — concerning metrics indicating significant structural or financial risks.

📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +

The Zyberno Score answers one question: "Is this a quality business worth owning?" It's a 0-100 investment grade that evaluates business fundamentals across four critical dimensions, based on principles from Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, and Charlie Munger.

The 4 Core Categories (25 points each):

1. PROFITABILITY (25 pts)

Metrics: ROE, ROIC, Net Margin, Operating Margin
Thresholds: ROE >20% excellent • ROIC >20% excellent • Net Margin >20% excellent • Operating Margin >25% excellent

2. FINANCIAL STRENGTH (25 pts)

Metrics: Debt-to-Equity, Current Ratio, Interest Coverage, Altman Z-Score
Thresholds: D/E <0.3 excellent • Current Ratio >2.5 excellent • Interest Coverage >10x excellent • Altman Z >3.0 safe

3. CASH FLOW QUALITY (25 pts)

Metrics: Free Cash Flow, OCF vs Net Income, FCF Margin
Thresholds: Positive & growing FCF excellent • OCF/NI >1.2x excellent (cash earnings exceed accounting)

4. GROWTH & CONSISTENCY (25 pts)

Metrics: Revenue Growth, Net Income Growth, FCF Growth, Piotroski F-Score
Thresholds: Growth via log-linear regression • Piotroski 8-9 excellent, 6-7 good

Score Interpretation:

75-100

GREAT BUSINESS

65-74

GOOD BUSINESS

50-64

AVERAGE BUSINESS

30-49

WEAK BUSINESS

0-29

POOR BUSINESS

→ View full BZUN quality analysis & detailed breakdown

VALUATION SIGNAL

MARGIN OF SAFETY

Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?

Margin of Safety unavailable — insufficient data for the owner-earnings DCF.

BRINA GAP ↗

Is the market underestimating or overestimating what this business is capable of going forward?

-20.1%

Market Overestimates

💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +

Margin of Safety measures how much discount or premium you're paying relative to a stock's intrinsic value. It's Benjamin Graham's core principle: the larger the margin, the lower your downside risk.

Formula: (Intrinsic Value − Current Price) ÷ Intrinsic Value × 100%

How We Calculate Intrinsic Value (DCF Method):

Step 1: Calculate current Owner Earnings (OCF − Maintenance CapEx)

Step 2: Calculate company-specific growth rate using log-linear regression on 16 quarters of Owner Earnings

Step 3: Project 10 years forward using the calculated growth rate

Step 4: Discount each year's cash flow to present value using 10% discount rate

Step 5: Calculate terminal value using 3% perpetual growth rate

Step 6: Sum all discounted cash flows = Intrinsic Value

What The Percentages Mean:

+50% or more

EXCELLENT — Very undervalued

+25% to +50%

GOOD — Attractive discount

0% to +25%

FAIR — Reasonable value

0% to -25%

CAUTION — Slight premium

-25% or worse

POOR — Overvalued

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get." — Warren Buffett

→ View full BZUN valuation analysis · → View full BZUN Brina Gap analysis

📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in.

Formula: Fundamental Growth Rate − Market-Implied Growth Rate

The Two Components:

Fundamental Growth Rate = ROIC × Reinvestment Rate

What the business can sustainably grow at based on how much it reinvests and what return it earns on that capital. Grounded in historical financials.

Market-Implied Growth Rate = Reverse DCF

The growth rate the current Enterprise Value implicitly assumes. Calculated by back-solving a 10-year DCF model (10% WACC, 3% terminal growth) until the present value of projected cash flows equals EV.

What The Gap Means:

Gap > +5% Market Underestimates — potential upside

+2% to +5% Slight Underestimate

-2% to +2% Fairly Priced — market consensus matches fundamentals

-5% to -2% Slight Overestimate

Gap < -5% Market Overestimates — price embeds optimism fundamentals don't support

A positive gap (market underestimates) combined with a positive Margin of Safety is the strongest combined signal — the business is both cheap historically and forward economics are stronger than the price suggests.

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):CRITICAL (0.0%)

Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):EXCELLENT (0.28x)

Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):CRITICAL (0.0%)

Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):CRITICAL (0.7%)

📊 Valuation Trilogy

Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis

Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis

Zyberno's Verdict

Baozun Inc. (BZUN) stock report — Zyberno Score 17/100 (POOR BUSINESS). Full financial analysis on Zyberno.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, Baozun Inc. (BZUN) shows a Brina Gap of -20.1%, which weakens the case: based on the company's ROIC (0.7%) and reinvestment rate (-271.6%), the business can fundamentally grow at -1.9% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects 18.3%.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:3.02

Market Cap:$165.31M

Valuation Multiples (3)

P/B Ratio:0.21x

P/S Ratio:0.12x

Peg Ratio:-999.00x

Enterprise Metrics (3)

Enterprise Value:$278.29M

Ev Ebitda Ratio:9.19x

Pfcf Ratio:3.52x

Price Action & Momentum (3)

12-1 Momentum:

+6.6% (57th pctile)

📈 Click to view full BZUN Momentum analysis →

Momentum Percentile:57 / 100

% of 52-Week High:61.9%

B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (5)

Roic:

0.7%

📊 Click to view full BZUN ROIC analysis →

Reinvestment Rate:-271.6%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-1.9%

Market-Implied Growth Rate:18.3%

Brina Gap:

-20.1%

☷ Click to view full BZUN Brina Gap analysis →

Margin Analysis (1)

Ebitda Margin:2.1%

Yield Metrics (2)

Earnings Yield:-$999.00

Dividend Yield:2.0%

C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:1.87x

Quick Ratio:1.63x

Cash Ratio:0.25x

Leverage Analysis (3)

Debt To Equity Ttm:0.28x

Debt-to-Equity Ratio:0.28x

Debt To Ebitda:8.01x

Coverage Ratios (2)

Interest Coverage Ratio:1.27x

Times Interest Earned:1.27

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:451,582,000.00

Cash And Cash Equivalents:129,747,000.00

Long Term Debt:$70.01M

Net Debt:$112.97M

DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS

A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

$1.42B

Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$368.37M

Profitability Breakdown (2)

$1.05B$8.09M

Bottom Line Performance (3)

-$34.62M

Income Before Tax:-$28.71M

Ebitda Ttm:30,290,979.52

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:1,414,099,000.00

R And D Expense:0.00

Sga Expense:550,148,000.00

Income Tax Expense:$1.42M

Interest Expense:6,374,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:0.0%

Sga To Revenue Percentage:38.7%

Ebitda Margin:2.1%

B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$1.39B

Current Assets:$972.84M

Ppe Net:108,493,000.00

Goodwill:39,228,000.00

Intangible Assets:$46.18M

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:600,528,000.00

Current Liabilities:521,255,000.00

Long Term Debt:$70.01M

Short Term Debt:$172.71M

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:$777.05M

Retained Earnings:-$133.55M

Common Stock:500,000,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:310,758,000.00

Inventory:125,756,000.00

Accounts Payable:66,649,000.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:27,849,493.47

Stock Based Compensation:2,850,000.00

C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

$60.12M$44.89M

Investment Activities (1)

Investing Cash Flow:-$128.50M

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:-$15.37M

Dividends Paid Ttm:3,173,000.00

Stock Repurchase:1,461,000.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:2,518.53

Long Term Debt Issuance:$9.38M

Long Term Debt Repayments:$0.00

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:22,203,979.52

DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS

A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (1)

Earnings Per Share Ttm:-$0.63

Revenue & Cash Per Share (2)

Sales Per Share Ttm:25.98

Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$1.10

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:$14.20

Cash Per Share:2.37

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:-999.00x

B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:1.03x

Working Capital Turnover Ttm:3.15x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:4.58x

Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:79.76

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:2.93x

Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:124.61

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:66.04

Cash Conversion Cycle:138.32

C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:100.00

Quality Score:50.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x

Volatility Category:unknown

DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

A. Value Investment Framework

Damodaran Growth Analysis (4)

Reinvestment Rate:-271.6%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-1.9%

Market-Implied Growth Rate:18.3%

Brina Gap:

-20.1%

☷ Click to view full BZUN Brina Gap analysis →

B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:BZUN

Company Name:Baozun Inc.

Sector:Consumer Discretionary

Industry:E-commerce & Mail Order

Exchange:NASDAQ

Country:China

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A

Price Category:low

Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:54.74M

Shares Outstanding Basic:173.48M

Shares Outstanding Diluted:173.48M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0

Last Updated:2026-08-31 12:18:19 UTC

Data Timestamp:2026-08-19T05:38:37.401678