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ZYBERNO
Stock Report
Updated Aug 31, 2026

BLUE BIRD CORPORATION (BLBD)

Industrial • NASDAQ

$59.23

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →
Is it a great business? Is it getting better?
83.0/100
GREAT BUSINESS
BLUE BIRD CORPORATION (BLBD) scores 83/100 — exceptional capital returns and consistent cash generation across all measurement periods.
📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +
VALUATION SIGNAL
MARGIN OF SAFETY
Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?
+61.8%
Undervalued
Is the market underestimating or overestimating what this business is capable of going forward?
+9.2%
Market Underestimates
↑ UNDER
+50%
Brina Gap
-50%
↓ OVER
← OVERVALUED
-100%
Margin of Safety
UNDERVALUED →
+100%
UNDERESTIMATED
GROWTH
DOUBLE
DISCOUNT
EXPENSIVE
HYPE
VALUE
TRAP
0,0
MoS +61.8%  ·  Gap +9.2%

Two independent signals. One tells you if the stock is cheap relative to what the business has historically generated for owners — the Margin of Safety. The other tells you if the market is underestimating what the business is capable of going forward — the Brina Gap.

They are calculated from completely different data sources and answer completely different questions. The Margin of Safety reads the past. The Brina Gap reads the present economics and compares them against what the current stock price is assuming about the future.

When both point in the same direction simultaneously — DOUBLE DISCOUNT — the probability of genuine mispricing is high. The market is wrong on two independent dimensions at once, which is rare and significant.

The most dangerous scenario is not an overvalued stock — those are easy to avoid. It is a VALUE TRAP: a stock that appears cheap historically but where the market is already pricing in stronger growth than the business fundamentals support. Without the Brina Gap signal this looks identical to a genuine opportunity. The matrix separates them instantly.

The Brina Gap is the more powerful of the two signals. Most investors and analytical tools focus on valuation alone — whether a stock is cheap relative to earnings. Far fewer systematically compare what the business economics structurally support against what the stock price is actually assuming. That gap between fundamental growth potential and market expectations is where the most reliable mispricings live, and where this matrix earns its value.

Use this as your first filter. A stock in DOUBLE DISCOUNT territory is worth investigating. Everything else requires either more caution or a specific reason to act.

DOUBLE DISCOUNT OPPORTUNITY
BLUE BIRD CORPORATION (BLBD) scores a Double Discount — Margin of Safety +61.8% against historical owner earnings and Brina Gap +9.2% against forward business economics. Both independent signals point to undervaluation simultaneously.
🎯 Expected Annual Return →
45.5%
Margin of Safety convergence — your return if the market re-prices to intrinsic value (5-yr annualised)
15.0%
Brina Gap convergence — your return if the market corrects the growth mispricing the Gap measures
9.5%
Yield + growth — what the business alone earns you, even if the market never re-rates
💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +
📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):EXCELLENT (76.2%)
Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):EXCELLENT (0.19x)
Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):GOOD (20.1%)
Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):EXCELLENT (46.4%)
📊 Valuation Trilogy
Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis
💎
Intrinsic Value
DCF Fair Value
$155.12
🛡️
Margin of Safety
Valuation Gap
61.8%
🎯
Expected Return
Projected Annual
45.5%
Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis
Zyberno's Verdict

According to Zyberno, BLUE BIRD CORPORATION (BLBD) is a buy opportunity — GREAT BUSINESS (83/100) trading at a Margin of Safety of +61.8% against historical owner earnings, with a Brina Gap of +9.2% confirming the market is underestimating its forward growth capacity.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, BLUE BIRD CORPORATION (BLBD) trades at $59.23 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $155.12 — a +61.8% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $170.68M TTM, projected at 20.2% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. The Brina Gap of +9.2% strengthens the case: based on the company's ROIC (46.4%) and reinvestment rate (2.4%), the business can fundamentally grow at 1.1% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects -8.1%. This places BLBD in the Double Discount quadrant of the Brina Matrix, the rarest and most attractive position. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of 45.5% annually.

Over the trailing twelve months, BLBD generated $170.68M in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $2.38M returned via share buybacks, $23.74M invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: 2.4%. Owner Earnings have grown at 20.2% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:59.23
Market Cap:$2.03B

Valuation Multiples (4)

P/E Ratio:
7.21x
📊 Click to view full BLBD P/E analysis →
P/B Ratio:3.10x
P/S Ratio:1.26x
Peg Ratio:0.05x

Enterprise Metrics (3)

Enterprise Value:$2.04B
Ev Ebitda Ratio:5.99x
Pfcf Ratio:12.47x

Price Action & Momentum (3)

12-1 Momentum:
+66.5% (89th pctile)
📈 Click to view full BLBD Momentum analysis →
Momentum Percentile:89 / 100
% of 52-Week High:71.0%
B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (7)

ROE:
76.2%
📊 Click to view full BLBD ROE analysis →
ROA:36.1%
Roic:
46.4%
📊 Click to view full BLBD ROIC analysis →
Reinvestment Rate:2.4%
Fundamental Growth Rate (g):1.1%
Market-Implied Growth Rate:-8.1%
Brina Gap:
9.2%
☷ Click to view full BLBD Brina Gap analysis →

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:20.1%
Net Margin Ttm:17.5%
Ebitda Margin:21.1%

TTM Performance (3)

Gross Margin Ttm:20.6%
Operating Margin Ttm:20.1%
Net Margin Ttm:17.5%

Yield Metrics (3)

Earnings Yield:$13.88
Owner Earnings Yield:$8.42
Dividend Yield:0.0%
C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Earnings Surprise (SUE) (3)

Earnings Surprise (SUE):
+4.00
📊 Click to view full BLBD Earnings Surprise analysis →
EPS Surprise vs Expected:275.6%
Latest Earnings Filed:2026-08-05

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):13.9%

Earnings Growth (Linear) (1)

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):74.8%

Cash Flow Growth (Linear) (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):17.7%
Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):22.8%

Operating Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):54.5%
D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:1.64x
Quick Ratio:0.67x
Cash Ratio:0.37x

Leverage Analysis (3)

Debt To Equity Ttm:0.19x
Debt-to-Equity Ratio:0.19x
Debt To Ebitda:0.37x

Coverage Ratios (2)

Interest Coverage Ratio:24.54x
Times Interest Earned:24.54

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:200,364,000.00
Cash And Cash Equivalents:116,824,000.00
Long Term Debt:$81.81M
Net Debt:$7.45M
DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS
A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $1.61B
Linear Growth: 13.9%
📊 Click to view full BLBD Revenue analysis & methodology →
Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$1.28B

Profitability Breakdown (2)

Gross profit TTM: $331.66M
Linear Growth: 56.2%
📊 Click to view full BLBD Gross Profit analysis & methodology →
Operating income TTM: $324.16M
Linear Growth: 54.5%
📊 Click to view full BLBD Operating Income analysis & methodology →

Bottom Line Performance (3)

Net income TTM: $281.81M
Linear Growth: 74.8%
📊 Click to view full BLBD Net Income analysis & methodology →
Income Before Tax:$322.60M
Ebitda Ttm:339,868,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:0.00
R And D Expense:15,200,000.00
Sga Expense:141,857,000.00
Income Tax Expense:$42.12M
Interest Expense:6,811,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:2.9%
Sga To Revenue Percentage:27.4%
Ebitda Margin:21.1%
B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$1.17B
Current Assets:$513.71M
Ppe Net:165,118,000.00
Goodwill:264,102,000.00
Intangible Assets:$175.83M

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:511,628,000.00
Current Liabilities:313,346,000.00
Long Term Debt:$81.81M
Short Term Debt:$42.46M

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:$654.89M
Retained Earnings:$313.56M
Common Stock:100,000,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:53,498,000.00
Inventory:302,468,000.00
Accounts Payable:174,964,000.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:29,400,000.00
Stock Based Compensation:2,356,000.00
C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

Operating cash flow TTM: $186.38M
Linear Growth: 22.8%
Free cash flow TTM: $162.64M
Linear Growth: 17.7%
📊 Click to view full BLBD Free Cash Flow analysis & methodology →

Investment Activities (2)

Investing Cash Flow:-$5.66M
Capital Expenditures Ttm:23,743,000.00

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:-$18.50M
Dividends Paid Ttm:0.00
Stock Repurchase:2,376,000.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:0.00
Long Term Debt Issuance:$0.00
Long Term Debt Repayments:$0.00

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:15,708,000.00
DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS
A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (3)

EPS (Basic TTM):8.45
Eps diluted TTM: $8.22
Linear Growth: 72.8%
📊 Click to view full BLBD EPS analysis & methodology →
Earnings Per Share Ttm:$8.23

Revenue & Cash Per Share (3)

Sales Per Share Ttm:47.09
Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$5.15
Fcf Per Share Ttm:4.75

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:$19.13
Cash Per Share:3.41

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:0.00x
B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:2.06x
Working Capital Turnover Ttm:8.05x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:30.14x
Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:12.11

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:4.23x
Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:86.21

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:49.87
Cash Conversion Cycle:48.45
C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:100.00
Quality Score:100.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x
Volatility Category:unknown
DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
A. Value Investment Framework

Owner Earnings Analysis (3)

Owner earnings TTM: $170.68M
Linear Growth: 20.2%
📊 Click to view full BLBD Owner Earnings analysis & methodology →
Owner Earnings Per Share:$4.99
Owner Earnings Yield:$8.42

Growth Assessment (1)

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:$20.23

Damodaran Growth Analysis (4)

Reinvestment Rate:2.4%
Fundamental Growth Rate (g):1.1%
Market-Implied Growth Rate:-8.1%
Brina Gap:
9.2%
☷ Click to view full BLBD Brina Gap analysis →

Intrinsic Value Models (1)

Intrinsic Value:
$5.31B
📊 Click to view full BLBD DCF valuation →

Margin of Safety (1)

Margin Of Safety:
61.8%
📊 Click to view full BLBD valuation analysis →

Return Scenarios (2)

Theoretical 5-Year Return:
45.5%
📊 Click to view full BLBD expected return analysis →
Forward Expected Return (Yield + Growth):
9.5%
📊 Click to view full BLBD expected return analysis →

Investment Assessment (1)

Buffett Assessment:Excellent margin of safety
B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (3)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):13.9%
Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):74.8%
Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):54.5%

Cash Flow Growth Rates (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):17.7%
Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):22.8%

Other Growth Rates (3)

Gross Profit Growth Rate (Linear):56.2%
Book Value Growth Rate (Linear):100.0%
Owner Earnings Growth Rate:$20.23
C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:BLBD
Company Name:BLUE BIRD CORPORATION
Sector:Industrial
Industry:Automotive
Exchange:NASDAQ
Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A
Price Category:high
Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:34.24M
Shares Outstanding Basic:34.24M
Shares Outstanding Diluted:35.15M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0
Last Updated:2026-08-31 04:38:21 UTC
Data Timestamp:2026-08-31T04:38:21.034759
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