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ZYBERNO

Stock Report

Updated Sep 1, 2026

BAYFIRST FINANCIAL CORP. (BAFN)

Financial Services • NASDAQ

$6.50

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →

Is it a great business? Is it getting better?

34.0/100

WEAK BUSINESS

BAYFIRST FINANCIAL CORP. (BAFN) scores 34/100 — weak fundamentals with mixed indicators requiring careful analysis before acting.

📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +

The Zyberno Score answers one question: "Is this a quality business worth owning?" It's a 0-100 investment grade that evaluates business fundamentals across four critical dimensions, based on principles from Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, and Charlie Munger.

The 4 Core Categories (25 points each):

1. PROFITABILITY (25 pts)

Metrics: ROE, ROIC, Net Margin, Operating Margin
Thresholds: ROE >20% excellent • ROIC >20% excellent • Net Margin >20% excellent • Operating Margin >25% excellent

2. FINANCIAL STRENGTH (25 pts)

Metrics: Debt-to-Equity, Current Ratio, Interest Coverage, Altman Z-Score
Thresholds: D/E <0.3 excellent • Current Ratio >2.5 excellent • Interest Coverage >10x excellent • Altman Z >3.0 safe

3. CASH FLOW QUALITY (25 pts)

Metrics: Free Cash Flow, OCF vs Net Income, FCF Margin
Thresholds: Positive & growing FCF excellent • OCF/NI >1.2x excellent (cash earnings exceed accounting)

4. GROWTH & CONSISTENCY (25 pts)

Metrics: Revenue Growth, Net Income Growth, FCF Growth, Piotroski F-Score
Thresholds: Growth via log-linear regression • Piotroski 8-9 excellent, 6-7 good

Score Interpretation:

75-100

GREAT BUSINESS

65-74

GOOD BUSINESS

50-64

AVERAGE BUSINESS

30-49

WEAK BUSINESS

0-29

POOR BUSINESS

→ View full BAFN quality analysis & detailed breakdown

VALUATION SIGNAL

⚠

Business Model Limitation

BAYFIRST FINANCIAL CORP. operates in the Banking industry. Owner Earnings-based DCF analysis — the foundation of both the Margin of Safety and the Brina Gap — is not well-suited to companies whose business model is structurally built around leverage: banks, insurers, mortgage companies, and REITs. These businesses are typically valued using sector-specific metrics such as Price-to-Book, Price-to-FFO, or Net Asset Value. Treat these signals as directional only.

MARGIN OF SAFETY

Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?

+98.4%

Undervalued

Growth gap unavailable — insufficient data for reverse DCF calculation.

🎯 Expected Annual Return →

108.4%

Margin of Safety convergence — your return if the market re-prices to intrinsic value (5-yr annualised)

805.2%

Yield + growth — what the business alone earns you, even if the market never re-rates

💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +

Margin of Safety measures how much discount or premium you're paying relative to a stock's intrinsic value. It's Benjamin Graham's core principle: the larger the margin, the lower your downside risk.

Formula: (Intrinsic Value − Current Price) ÷ Intrinsic Value × 100%

How We Calculate Intrinsic Value (DCF Method):

Step 1: Calculate current Owner Earnings (OCF − Maintenance CapEx)

Step 2: Calculate company-specific growth rate using log-linear regression on 16 quarters of Owner Earnings

Step 3: Project 10 years forward using the calculated growth rate

Step 4: Discount each year's cash flow to present value using 10% discount rate

Step 5: Calculate terminal value using 3% perpetual growth rate

Step 6: Sum all discounted cash flows = Intrinsic Value

What The Percentages Mean:

+50% or more

EXCELLENT — Very undervalued

+25% to +50%

GOOD — Attractive discount

0% to +25%

FAIR — Reasonable value

0% to -25%

CAUTION — Slight premium

-25% or worse

POOR — Overvalued

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get." — Warren Buffett

→ View full BAFN valuation analysis · → View full BAFN Brina Gap analysis

📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in.

Formula: Fundamental Growth Rate − Market-Implied Growth Rate

The Two Components:

Fundamental Growth Rate = ROIC × Reinvestment Rate

What the business can sustainably grow at based on how much it reinvests and what return it earns on that capital. Grounded in historical financials.

Market-Implied Growth Rate = Reverse DCF

The growth rate the current Enterprise Value implicitly assumes. Calculated by back-solving a 10-year DCF model (10% WACC, 3% terminal growth) until the present value of projected cash flows equals EV.

What The Gap Means:

Gap > +5% Market Underestimates — potential upside

+2% to +5% Slight Underestimate

-2% to +2% Fairly Priced — market consensus matches fundamentals

-5% to -2% Slight Overestimate

Gap < -5% Market Overestimates — price embeds optimism fundamentals don't support

A positive gap (market underestimates) combined with a positive Margin of Safety is the strongest combined signal — the business is both cheap historically and forward economics are stronger than the price suggests.

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):CRITICAL (-66.9%)

Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):EXCELLENT (0.22x)

Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):CRITICAL (-109.6%)

Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):CRITICAL (-6.3%)

📊 Valuation Trilogy

Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis

Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis

Zyberno's Verdict

BAYFIRST FINANCIAL CORP. (BAFN) stock report — Zyberno Score 34/100 (WEAK BUSINESS), Margin of Safety +98.4%, 108% expected annual return. Full financial analysis on Zyberno.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, BAYFIRST FINANCIAL CORP. (BAFN) trades at $6.50 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $401.77 — a +98.4% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $212.05M TTM, projected at -8.9% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of 108.4% annually.

Over the trailing twelve months, BAFN generated $212.05M in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $663.00K paid as dividends, $234.00K invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: 3.0%. Owner Earnings have declined at 8.9% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:6.50

Market Cap:$26.70M

Valuation Multiples (3)

P/B Ratio:0.23x

P/S Ratio:0.35x

Peg Ratio:-999.00x

Enterprise Metrics (2)

Enterprise Value:-$97.27M

Pfcf Ratio:0.12x

Price Action & Momentum (3)

12-1 Momentum:

-19.0% (4th pctile)

📈 Click to view full BAFN Momentum analysis →

Momentum Percentile:4 / 100

% of 52-Week High:57.3%

B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (5)

ROE:

-66.9%

📊 Click to view full BAFN ROE analysis →

ROA:-5.0%

Roic:

-6.3%

📊 Click to view full BAFN ROIC analysis →

Reinvestment Rate:3.0%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-0.2%

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:-109.6%

Net Margin Ttm:-81.4%

Ebitda Margin:-106.8%

TTM Performance (2)

Operating Margin Ttm:-109.6%

Net Margin Ttm:-81.4%

Yield Metrics (3)

Earnings Yield:-$240.25

Owner Earnings Yield:$805.36

Dividend Yield:2.5%

C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Earnings Surprise (SUE) (3)

Earnings Surprise (SUE):

-4.00

📊 Click to view full BAFN Earnings Surprise analysis →

EPS Surprise vs Expected:-739.8%

Latest Earnings Filed:2026-08-14

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):12.5%

Earnings Growth (Linear) (1)

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):75.3%

Cash Flow Growth (Linear) (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-8.3%

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-9.1%

Operating Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):9.0%

D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:0.01x

Quick Ratio:0.01x

Cash Ratio:0.14x

Leverage Analysis (3)

Debt To Equity Ttm:0.22x

Debt-to-Equity Ratio:0.22x

Debt To Ebitda:-999.00x

Coverage Ratios (2)

Interest Coverage Ratio:-0.81x

Times Interest Earned:-0.81

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:-983,233,000.00

Cash And Cash Equivalents:139,165,000.00

Long Term Debt:$12.69M

Net Debt:-$123.97M

DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS

A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $75.86M

Linear Growth: 12.5%

📊 Click to view full BAFN Revenue analysis & methodology →

Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$0.00

Profitability Breakdown (2)

$0.00

Operating income TTM: -$83.15M

Linear Growth: 9.0%

📊 Click to view full BAFN Operating Income analysis & methodology →

Bottom Line Performance (3)

Net income TTM: -$61.76M

Linear Growth: 75.3%

📊 Click to view full BAFN Net Income analysis & methodology →

Income Before Tax:-$83.15M

Ebitda Ttm:-80,996,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:69,646,000.00

R And D Expense:0.00

Sga Expense:0.00

Income Tax Expense:-$21.39M

Interest Expense:40,760,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:0.0%

Sga To Revenue Percentage:0.0%

Ebitda Margin:-106.8%

B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$1.13B

Current Assets:$5.64M

Ppe Net:38,874,000.00

Goodwill:0.00

Intangible Assets:$0.00

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:1,019,024,000.00

Current Liabilities:988,874,000.00

Long Term Debt:$12.69M

Short Term Debt:$2.50M

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:$115.90M

Retained Earnings:-$26.36M

Common Stock:54,382,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:0.00

Inventory:0.00

Accounts Payable:0.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:0.00

Stock Based Compensation:54,000.00

C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

Operating cash flow TTM: $212.28M

Linear Growth: -9.1%

Free cash flow TTM: $212.05M

Linear Growth: -8.3%

📊 Click to view full BAFN Free Cash Flow analysis & methodology →

Investment Activities (2)

Investing Cash Flow:$28.04M

Capital Expenditures Ttm:234,000.00

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:-$98.17M

Dividends Paid Ttm:663,000.00

Stock Repurchase:0.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:18,000.00

Long Term Debt Issuance:$0.00

Long Term Debt Repayments:$0.00

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:2,153,000.00

DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS

A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (3)

EPS (Basic TTM):-15.40

Eps diluted TTM: -$15.40

Linear Growth: 85.0%

📊 Click to view full BAFN EPS analysis & methodology →

Earnings Per Share Ttm:-$15.04

Revenue & Cash Per Share (3)

Sales Per Share Ttm:18.47

Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$70.32

Fcf Per Share Ttm:51.62

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:$28.22

Cash Per Share:33.88

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:-999.00x

B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:0.06x

Working Capital Turnover Ttm:-999.00x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:-999.00x

Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:-999.00

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:-999.00x

Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:-999.00

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:-999.00

Cash Conversion Cycle:-999.00

C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:60.00

Quality Score:45.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x

Volatility Category:unknown

DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

A. Value Investment Framework

Owner Earnings Analysis (3)

Owner earnings TTM: $212.05M

Linear Growth: -8.9%

📊 Click to view full BAFN Owner Earnings analysis & methodology →

Owner Earnings Per Share:$51.62

Owner Earnings Yield:$805.36

Growth Assessment (1)

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:-$8.93

Damodaran Growth Analysis (2)

Reinvestment Rate:3.0%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-0.2%

Intrinsic Value Models (1)

Intrinsic Value:

$1.65B

📊 Click to view full BAFN DCF valuation →

Margin of Safety (1)

Margin Of Safety:

98.4%

📊 Click to view full BAFN valuation analysis →

Return Scenarios (2)

Theoretical 5-Year Return:

108.4%

📊 Click to view full BAFN expected return analysis →

Forward Expected Return (Yield + Growth):

805.2%

📊 Click to view full BAFN expected return analysis →

Investment Assessment (1)

Buffett Assessment:Excellent margin of safety

B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (3)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):12.5%

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):75.3%

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):9.0%

Cash Flow Growth Rates (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-8.3%

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-9.1%

Other Growth Rates (2)

Book Value Growth Rate (Linear):1.1%

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:-$8.93

C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:BAFN

Company Name:BAYFIRST FINANCIAL CORP.

Sector:Financial Services

Industry:Banking

Exchange:NASDAQ

Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A

Price Category:low

Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:4.11M

Shares Outstanding Basic:4.11M

Shares Outstanding Diluted:4.11M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0

Last Updated:2026-09-01 10:42:12 UTC

Data Timestamp:2026-08-21T02:03:18.115015