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ZYBERNO

Stock Report

Updated Aug 31, 2026

BRIDGER AEROSPACE GROUP HOLDINGS, INC. (BAER)

NASDAQ

$1.10

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →

Is it a great business? Is it getting better?

13.0/100

POOR BUSINESS

BRIDGER AEROSPACE GROUP HOLDINGS, INC. (BAER) scores 13/100 — concerning metrics indicating significant structural or financial risks.

📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +

The Zyberno Score answers one question: "Is this a quality business worth owning?" It's a 0-100 investment grade that evaluates business fundamentals across four critical dimensions, based on principles from Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, and Charlie Munger.

The 4 Core Categories (25 points each):

1. PROFITABILITY (25 pts)

Metrics: ROE, ROIC, Net Margin, Operating Margin
Thresholds: ROE >20% excellent • ROIC >20% excellent • Net Margin >20% excellent • Operating Margin >25% excellent

2. FINANCIAL STRENGTH (25 pts)

Metrics: Debt-to-Equity, Current Ratio, Interest Coverage, Altman Z-Score
Thresholds: D/E <0.3 excellent • Current Ratio >2.5 excellent • Interest Coverage >10x excellent • Altman Z >3.0 safe

3. CASH FLOW QUALITY (25 pts)

Metrics: Free Cash Flow, OCF vs Net Income, FCF Margin
Thresholds: Positive & growing FCF excellent • OCF/NI >1.2x excellent (cash earnings exceed accounting)

4. GROWTH & CONSISTENCY (25 pts)

Metrics: Revenue Growth, Net Income Growth, FCF Growth, Piotroski F-Score
Thresholds: Growth via log-linear regression • Piotroski 8-9 excellent, 6-7 good

Score Interpretation:

75-100

GREAT BUSINESS

65-74

GOOD BUSINESS

50-64

AVERAGE BUSINESS

30-49

WEAK BUSINESS

0-29

POOR BUSINESS

→ View full BAER quality analysis & detailed breakdown

VALUATION SIGNAL

MARGIN OF SAFETY

Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?

-100.0%

Overvalued

Growth gap unavailable — insufficient data for reverse DCF calculation.

⚠ Significant divergence between Owner Earnings and Free Cash Flow (1.04×). Intrinsic Value and Brina Gap are likely overstated — acquisition-related D&A is inflating Owner Earnings. Verify earnings quality before acting.

🎯 Expected Annual Return →

-33.3%

Margin of Safety convergence — your return if the market re-prices to intrinsic value (5-yr annualised)

23.8%

Yield + growth — what the business alone earns you, even if the market never re-rates

💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +

Margin of Safety measures how much discount or premium you're paying relative to a stock's intrinsic value. It's Benjamin Graham's core principle: the larger the margin, the lower your downside risk.

Formula: (Intrinsic Value − Current Price) ÷ Intrinsic Value × 100%

How We Calculate Intrinsic Value (DCF Method):

Step 1: Calculate current Owner Earnings (OCF − Maintenance CapEx)

Step 2: Calculate company-specific growth rate using log-linear regression on 16 quarters of Owner Earnings

Step 3: Project 10 years forward using the calculated growth rate

Step 4: Discount each year's cash flow to present value using 10% discount rate

Step 5: Calculate terminal value using 3% perpetual growth rate

Step 6: Sum all discounted cash flows = Intrinsic Value

What The Percentages Mean:

+50% or more

EXCELLENT — Very undervalued

+25% to +50%

GOOD — Attractive discount

0% to +25%

FAIR — Reasonable value

0% to -25%

CAUTION — Slight premium

-25% or worse

POOR — Overvalued

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get." — Warren Buffett

→ View full BAER valuation analysis · → View full BAER Brina Gap analysis

📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in.

Formula: Fundamental Growth Rate − Market-Implied Growth Rate

The Two Components:

Fundamental Growth Rate = ROIC × Reinvestment Rate

What the business can sustainably grow at based on how much it reinvests and what return it earns on that capital. Grounded in historical financials.

Market-Implied Growth Rate = Reverse DCF

The growth rate the current Enterprise Value implicitly assumes. Calculated by back-solving a 10-year DCF model (10% WACC, 3% terminal growth) until the present value of projected cash flows equals EV.

What The Gap Means:

Gap > +5% Market Underestimates — potential upside

+2% to +5% Slight Underestimate

-2% to +2% Fairly Priced — market consensus matches fundamentals

-5% to -2% Slight Overestimate

Gap < -5% Market Overestimates — price embeds optimism fundamentals don't support

A positive gap (market underestimates) combined with a positive Margin of Safety is the strongest combined signal — the business is both cheap historically and forward economics are stronger than the price suggests.

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):CRITICAL (0.0%)

Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):EXCELLENT (0.00x)

Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):CRITICAL (-131.7%)

Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):CRITICAL (-5.3%)

📊 Valuation Trilogy

Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis

Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis

Zyberno's Verdict

BRIDGER AEROSPACE GROUP HOLDINGS, INC. (BAER) stock report — Zyberno Score 13/100 (POOR BUSINESS), Margin of Safety -100.0%, -33% expected annual return. Full financial analysis on Zyberno.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, BRIDGER AEROSPACE GROUP HOLDINGS, INC. (BAER) trades at $1.10 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $0.32 — a -100.0% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $2.69M TTM, projected at -12.2% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of -33.3% annually.

Over the trailing twelve months, BAER generated $2.69M in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $83.33M invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: -387.9%. Owner Earnings have declined at 12.2% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:1.10

Market Cap:$61.80M

Valuation Multiples (2)

P/S Ratio:3.62x

Peg Ratio:-999.00x

Enterprise Metrics (1)

Enterprise Value:$295.53M

Price Action & Momentum (3)

12-1 Momentum:

+12.2% (36th pctile)

📈 Click to view full BAER Momentum analysis →

Momentum Percentile:36 / 100

% of 52-Week High:31.8%

B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (4)

ROA:-8.6%

Roic:

-5.3%

📊 Click to view full BAER ROIC analysis →

Reinvestment Rate:-387.9%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):20.7%

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:-131.7%

Net Margin Ttm:-161.9%

Ebitda Margin:-40.7%

TTM Performance (2)

Operating Margin Ttm:-131.7%

Net Margin Ttm:-161.9%

Yield Metrics (3)

Earnings Yield:-$56.80

Owner Earnings Yield:$3.81

Dividend Yield:0.0%

C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Earnings Surprise (SUE) (3)

Earnings Surprise (SUE):

-0.06

📊 Click to view full BAER Earnings Surprise analysis →

EPS Surprise vs Expected:-37.6%

Latest Earnings Filed:2026-08-06

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):-40.0%

Earnings Growth (Linear) (1)

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-50.0%

Cash Flow Growth (Linear) (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-7.4%

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):0.0%

Operating Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):-15.7%

D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:1.73x

Quick Ratio:1.73x

Cash Ratio:0.39x

Leverage Analysis (1)

Debt To Ebitda:-999.00x

Coverage Ratios (2)

Interest Coverage Ratio:0.66x

Times Interest Earned:0.66

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:13,741,000.00

Cash And Cash Equivalents:7,241,000.00

Long Term Debt:$233.09M

Net Debt:$233.73M

DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS

A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $17.09M

Linear Growth: -40.0%

📊 Click to view full BAER Revenue analysis & methodology →

Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$71.46M

Profitability Breakdown (2)

Gross profit TTM: $51.68M

Linear Growth: 100.0%

📊 Click to view full BAER Gross Profit analysis & methodology →

Operating income TTM: -$22.50M

Linear Growth: -15.7%

📊 Click to view full BAER Operating Income analysis & methodology →

Bottom Line Performance (3)

Net income TTM: -$27.66M

Linear Growth: -50.0%

📊 Click to view full BAER Net Income analysis & methodology →

Income Before Tax:-$27.85M

Ebitda Ttm:-6,961,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:0.00

R And D Expense:0.00

Sga Expense:43,208,000.00

Income Tax Expense:-$192.00K

Interest Expense:5,989,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:0.0%

Sga To Revenue Percentage:205,752.4%

Ebitda Margin:-40.7%

B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$324.14M

Current Assets:$32.46M

Ppe Net:0.00

Goodwill:20,888,000.00

Intangible Assets:$5.93M

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:711,231,000.00

Current Liabilities:18,716,000.00

Long Term Debt:$233.09M

Short Term Debt:$7.88M

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:-$387.09M

Retained Earnings:-$456.90M

Common Stock:1,000,000,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:0.00

Inventory:0.00

Accounts Payable:5,012,000.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:1,897,000.00

Stock Based Compensation:2,432,000.00

C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

Operating cash flow TTM: $13.27M

Linear Growth: -2.0%

Free cash flow TTM: -$70.06M

Linear Growth: -7.4%

📊 Click to view full BAER Free Cash Flow analysis & methodology →

Investment Activities (2)

Investing Cash Flow:-$5.99M

Capital Expenditures Ttm:83,328,000.00

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:$4.76M

Dividends Paid Ttm:0.00

Stock Repurchase:0.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:168,000.00

Long Term Debt Issuance:$0.00

Long Term Debt Repayments:$710.00K

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:15,542,000.00

DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS

A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (3)

EPS (Basic TTM):-0.71

Eps diluted TTM: -$0.71

Linear Growth: -14.9%

📊 Click to view full BAER EPS analysis & methodology →

Earnings Per Share Ttm:-$0.49

Revenue & Cash Per Share (2)

Sales Per Share Ttm:0.30

Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$0.30

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:-$6.86

Cash Per Share:0.13

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:-999.00x

B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:0.05x

Working Capital Turnover Ttm:1.24x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:-999.00x

Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:-999.00

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:-999.00x

Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:-999.00

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:25.60

Cash Conversion Cycle:-2,023.60

C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:40.00

Quality Score:80.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x

Volatility Category:unknown

DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

A. Value Investment Framework

Owner Earnings Analysis (3)

Owner earnings TTM: $2.69M

Linear Growth: -12.2%

📊 Click to view full BAER Owner Earnings analysis & methodology →

Owner Earnings Per Share:$0.05

Owner Earnings Yield:$3.81

Growth Assessment (1)

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:-$12.16

Damodaran Growth Analysis (2)

Reinvestment Rate:-387.9%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):20.7%

Intrinsic Value Models (1)

Intrinsic Value:

$17.79M

📊 Click to view full BAER DCF valuation →

Margin of Safety (1)

Margin Of Safety:

-100.0%

📊 Click to view full BAER valuation analysis →

Return Scenarios (2)

Theoretical 5-Year Return:

-33.3%

📊 Click to view full BAER expected return analysis →

Forward Expected Return (Yield + Growth):

23.8%

📊 Click to view full BAER expected return analysis →

Investment Assessment (1)

Buffett Assessment:Overvalued

B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (3)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):-40.0%

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-50.0%

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):-15.7%

Cash Flow Growth Rates (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-7.4%

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):0.0%

Other Growth Rates (2)

Gross Profit Growth Rate (Linear):100.0%

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:-$12.16

C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:BAER

Company Name:BRIDGER AEROSPACE GROUP HOLDINGS, INC.

Sector:Unknown

Industry:Business Services

Exchange:NASDAQ

Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A

Price Category:low

Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:56.44M

Shares Outstanding Basic:56.44M

Shares Outstanding Diluted:56.44M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0

Last Updated:2026-08-31 16:59:15 UTC

Data Timestamp:2026-08-19T14:57:47.708743