← Back to Stock Screener← Stock Screener

ZYBERNO

Stock Report

Updated Aug 31, 2026

Axogen, Inc. (AXGN)

Healthcare • NASDAQ

$51.47

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →

Is it a great business? Is it getting better?

35.0/100

WEAK BUSINESS

Axogen, Inc. (AXGN) scores 35/100 — weak fundamentals with mixed indicators requiring careful analysis before acting.

📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +

The Zyberno Score answers one question: "Is this a quality business worth owning?" It's a 0-100 investment grade that evaluates business fundamentals across four critical dimensions, based on principles from Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, and Charlie Munger.

The 4 Core Categories (25 points each):

1. PROFITABILITY (25 pts)

Metrics: ROE, ROIC, Net Margin, Operating Margin
Thresholds: ROE >20% excellent • ROIC >20% excellent • Net Margin >20% excellent • Operating Margin >25% excellent

2. FINANCIAL STRENGTH (25 pts)

Metrics: Debt-to-Equity, Current Ratio, Interest Coverage, Altman Z-Score
Thresholds: D/E <0.3 excellent • Current Ratio >2.5 excellent • Interest Coverage >10x excellent • Altman Z >3.0 safe

3. CASH FLOW QUALITY (25 pts)

Metrics: Free Cash Flow, OCF vs Net Income, FCF Margin
Thresholds: Positive & growing FCF excellent • OCF/NI >1.2x excellent (cash earnings exceed accounting)

4. GROWTH & CONSISTENCY (25 pts)

Metrics: Revenue Growth, Net Income Growth, FCF Growth, Piotroski F-Score
Thresholds: Growth via log-linear regression • Piotroski 8-9 excellent, 6-7 good

Score Interpretation:

75-100

GREAT BUSINESS

65-74

GOOD BUSINESS

50-64

AVERAGE BUSINESS

30-49

WEAK BUSINESS

0-29

POOR BUSINESS

→ View full AXGN quality analysis & detailed breakdown

VALUATION SIGNAL

MARGIN OF SAFETY

Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?

-100.0%

Overvalued

Growth gap unavailable — insufficient data for reverse DCF calculation.

🎯 Expected Annual Return →

-21.7%

Margin of Safety convergence — your return if the market re-prices to intrinsic value (5-yr annualised)

-1.0%

Yield + growth — what the business alone earns you, even if the market never re-rates

💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +

Margin of Safety measures how much discount or premium you're paying relative to a stock's intrinsic value. It's Benjamin Graham's core principle: the larger the margin, the lower your downside risk.

Formula: (Intrinsic Value − Current Price) ÷ Intrinsic Value × 100%

How We Calculate Intrinsic Value (DCF Method):

Step 1: Calculate current Owner Earnings (OCF − Maintenance CapEx)

Step 2: Calculate company-specific growth rate using log-linear regression on 16 quarters of Owner Earnings

Step 3: Project 10 years forward using the calculated growth rate

Step 4: Discount each year's cash flow to present value using 10% discount rate

Step 5: Calculate terminal value using 3% perpetual growth rate

Step 6: Sum all discounted cash flows = Intrinsic Value

What The Percentages Mean:

+50% or more

EXCELLENT — Very undervalued

+25% to +50%

GOOD — Attractive discount

0% to +25%

FAIR — Reasonable value

0% to -25%

CAUTION — Slight premium

-25% or worse

POOR — Overvalued

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get." — Warren Buffett

→ View full AXGN valuation analysis · → View full AXGN Brina Gap analysis

📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in.

Formula: Fundamental Growth Rate − Market-Implied Growth Rate

The Two Components:

Fundamental Growth Rate = ROIC × Reinvestment Rate

What the business can sustainably grow at based on how much it reinvests and what return it earns on that capital. Grounded in historical financials.

Market-Implied Growth Rate = Reverse DCF

The growth rate the current Enterprise Value implicitly assumes. Calculated by back-solving a 10-year DCF model (10% WACC, 3% terminal growth) until the present value of projected cash flows equals EV.

What The Gap Means:

Gap > +5% Market Underestimates — potential upside

+2% to +5% Slight Underestimate

-2% to +2% Fairly Priced — market consensus matches fundamentals

-5% to -2% Slight Overestimate

Gap < -5% Market Overestimates — price embeds optimism fundamentals don't support

A positive gap (market underestimates) combined with a positive Margin of Safety is the strongest combined signal — the business is both cheap historically and forward economics are stronger than the price suggests.

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):CRITICAL (-17.9%)

Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):EXCELLENT (0.26x)

Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):CRITICAL (-5.1%)

Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):CRITICAL (-4.6%)

📊 Valuation Trilogy

Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis

Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis

Zyberno's Verdict

Axogen, Inc. (AXGN) stock report — Zyberno Score 35/100 (WEAK BUSINESS), Margin of Safety -100.0%, -22% expected annual return. Full financial analysis on Zyberno.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, Axogen, Inc. (AXGN) trades at $51.47 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $6.10 — a -100.0% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $10.46M TTM, projected at 74.8% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of -21.7% annually.

Over the trailing twelve months, AXGN generated $10.46M in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $6.28M invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: 30.3%. Owner Earnings have grown at 74.8% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:51.47

Market Cap:$2.75B

Valuation Multiples (3)

P/B Ratio:10.71x

P/S Ratio:10.93x

Peg Ratio:-999.00x

Enterprise Metrics (2)

Enterprise Value:$2.70B

Pfcf Ratio:295.90x

Price Action & Momentum (3)

12-1 Momentum:

+212.5% (99th pctile)

📈 Click to view full AXGN Momentum analysis →

Momentum Percentile:99 / 100

% of 52-Week High:99.0%

B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (5)

ROE:

-17.9%

📊 Click to view full AXGN ROE analysis →

ROA:-13.0%

Roic:

-4.6%

📊 Click to view full AXGN ROIC analysis →

Reinvestment Rate:30.3%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-1.4%

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:-5.1%

Net Margin Ttm:-13.4%

Ebitda Margin:-2.3%

TTM Performance (3)

Gross Margin Ttm:74.6%

Operating Margin Ttm:-5.1%

Net Margin Ttm:-13.4%

Yield Metrics (3)

Earnings Yield:-$1.32

Owner Earnings Yield:$0.38

Dividend Yield:0.0%

C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Earnings Surprise (SUE) (3)

Earnings Surprise (SUE):

-0.34

📊 Click to view full AXGN Earnings Surprise analysis →

EPS Surprise vs Expected:-366.7%

Latest Earnings Filed:2026-07-29

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):18.8%

Cash Flow Growth (Linear) (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-37.2%

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):57.0%

D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:6.60x

Quick Ratio:5.04x

Cash Ratio:3.11x

Leverage Analysis (3)

Debt To Equity Ttm:0.26x

Debt-to-Equity Ratio:0.26x

Debt To Ebitda:-999.00x

Coverage Ratios (2)

Interest Coverage Ratio:-1.88x

Times Interest Earned:-1.88

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:170,002,000.00

Cash And Cash Equivalents:94,572,000.00

Long Term Debt:$18.07M

Net Debt:-$48.10M

DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS

A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $251.17M

Linear Growth: 18.8%

📊 Click to view full AXGN Revenue analysis & methodology →

Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$63.91M

Profitability Breakdown (2)

Gross profit TTM: $187.27M

Linear Growth: 14.7%

📊 Click to view full AXGN Gross Profit analysis & methodology →

-$12.85M

Bottom Line Performance (3)

-$33.55M

Income Before Tax:$0.00

Ebitda Ttm:-5,747,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:200,113,000.00

R And D Expense:36,047,000.00

Sga Expense:51,715,000.00

Income Tax Expense:$0.00

Interest Expense:4,170,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:51.7%

Sga To Revenue Percentage:74.2%

Ebitda Margin:-2.3%

B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$304.86M

Current Assets:$200.38M

Ppe Net:0.00

Goodwill:0.00

Intangible Assets:$7.57M

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:48,606,000.00

Current Liabilities:30,374,000.00

Long Term Debt:$18.07M

Short Term Debt:$28.40M

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:$256.26M

Retained Earnings:-$328.06M

Common Stock:100,000,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:34,126,000.00

Inventory:47,313,000.00

Accounts Payable:28,399,000.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:0.00

Stock Based Compensation:6,843,000.00

C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

Operating cash flow TTM: $15.56M

Linear Growth: 57.0%

Free cash flow TTM: $9.28M

Linear Growth: -37.2%

📊 Click to view full AXGN Free Cash Flow analysis & methodology →

Investment Activities (2)

Investing Cash Flow:-$15.96M

Capital Expenditures Ttm:6,278,000.00

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:$59.51M

Dividends Paid Ttm:0.00

Stock Repurchase:0.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:134,044,000.00

Long Term Debt Issuance:$0.00

Long Term Debt Repayments:$0.00

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:7,101,000.00

DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS

A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (3)

EPS (Basic TTM):-0.68

-$0.68

Earnings Per Share Ttm:-$0.63

Revenue & Cash Per Share (3)

Sales Per Share Ttm:4.71

Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$0.02

Fcf Per Share Ttm:0.17

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:$4.80

Cash Per Share:1.77

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:-999.00x

B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:0.97x

Working Capital Turnover Ttm:1.48x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:7.36x

Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:49.59

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:1.35x

Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:270.22

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:162.19

Cash Conversion Cycle:157.61

C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:100.00

Quality Score:50.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x

Volatility Category:unknown

DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

A. Value Investment Framework

Owner Earnings Analysis (3)

Owner earnings TTM: $10.46M

Linear Growth: 74.8%

📊 Click to view full AXGN Owner Earnings analysis & methodology →

Owner Earnings Per Share:$0.20

Owner Earnings Yield:$0.38

Growth Assessment (1)

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:$74.80

Damodaran Growth Analysis (2)

Reinvestment Rate:30.3%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-1.4%

Intrinsic Value Models (1)

Intrinsic Value:

$325.58M

📊 Click to view full AXGN DCF valuation →

Margin of Safety (1)

Margin Of Safety:

-100.0%

📊 Click to view full AXGN valuation analysis →

Return Scenarios (2)

Theoretical 5-Year Return:

-21.7%

📊 Click to view full AXGN expected return analysis →

Forward Expected Return (Yield + Growth):

-1.0%

📊 Click to view full AXGN expected return analysis →

Investment Assessment (1)

Buffett Assessment:Overvalued

B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):18.8%

Cash Flow Growth Rates (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-37.2%

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):57.0%

Other Growth Rates (3)

Gross Profit Growth Rate (Linear):14.7%

Book Value Growth Rate (Linear):16.2%

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:$74.80

C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:AXGN

Company Name:Axogen, Inc.

Sector:Healthcare

Industry:Medical Technology

Exchange:NASDAQ

Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A

Price Category:high

Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:53.34M

Shares Outstanding Basic:53.34M

Shares Outstanding Diluted:53.34M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0

Last Updated:2026-08-31 04:27:10 UTC

Data Timestamp:2026-08-31T04:27:10.615647