Utilities • NYSE
According to Zyberno, AMERICAN STATES WATER CO (AWR) shows a Value Trap signal — AVERAGE BUSINESS (64/100) with an apparent Margin of Safety of +45.2%, but a Brina Gap of -0.2% reveals the current price still assumes faster growth than the business can deliver.
According to Zyberno's DCF model, AMERICAN STATES WATER CO (AWR) trades at $89.88 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $164.06 — a +45.2% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $207.42M TTM, projected at 82.9% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. The Brina Gap of -0.2% weakens the case: based on the company's ROIC (9.1%) and reinvestment rate (113.6%), the business can fundamentally grow at 10.4% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects 10.6%. This places AWR in the Value Trap quadrant of the Brina Matrix — a value-trap signal where the apparent discount is undermined by overpriced growth expectations. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of 35.3% annually.
Over the trailing twelve months, AWR generated $207.42M in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $76.60M paid as dividends, $218.31M invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: 113.6%. Owner Earnings have grown at 82.9% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.