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ZYBERNO

Stock Report

Updated Jun 2, 2026

AVADEL PHARMACEUTICALS PLC (AVDL)

Healthcare • NASDAQ

$21.64

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →

Is it a great business? Is it getting better?

35.0/100

WEAK BUSINESS

AVADEL PHARMACEUTICALS PLC (AVDL) scores 35/100 — weak fundamentals with mixed indicators requiring careful analysis before acting.

📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +

The Zyberno Score answers one question: "Is this a quality business worth owning?" It's a 0-100 investment grade that evaluates business fundamentals across four critical dimensions, based on principles from Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, and Charlie Munger.

The 4 Core Categories (25 points each):

1. PROFITABILITY (25 pts)

Metrics: ROE, ROIC, Net Margin, Operating Margin
Thresholds: ROE >20% excellent • ROIC >20% excellent • Net Margin >20% excellent • Operating Margin >25% excellent

2. FINANCIAL STRENGTH (25 pts)

Metrics: Debt-to-Equity, Current Ratio, Interest Coverage, Altman Z-Score
Thresholds: D/E <0.3 excellent • Current Ratio >2.5 excellent • Interest Coverage >10x excellent • Altman Z >3.0 safe

3. CASH FLOW QUALITY (25 pts)

Metrics: Free Cash Flow, OCF vs Net Income, FCF Margin
Thresholds: Positive & growing FCF excellent • OCF/NI >1.2x excellent (cash earnings exceed accounting)

4. GROWTH & CONSISTENCY (25 pts)

Metrics: Revenue Growth, Net Income Growth, FCF Growth, Piotroski F-Score
Thresholds: Growth via log-linear regression • Piotroski 8-9 excellent, 6-7 good

Score Interpretation:

75-100

GREAT BUSINESS

65-74

GOOD BUSINESS

50-64

AVERAGE BUSINESS

30-49

WEAK BUSINESS

0-29

POOR BUSINESS

→ View full AVDL quality analysis & detailed breakdown

VALUATION SIGNAL

MARGIN OF SAFETY

Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?

Margin of Safety unavailable — insufficient data for the owner-earnings DCF.

BRINA GAP ↗

Is the market underestimating or overestimating what this business is capable of going forward?

-60.6%

Market Overestimates

💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +

Margin of Safety measures how much discount or premium you're paying relative to a stock's intrinsic value. It's Benjamin Graham's core principle: the larger the margin, the lower your downside risk.

Formula: (Intrinsic Value − Current Price) ÷ Intrinsic Value × 100%

How We Calculate Intrinsic Value (DCF Method):

Step 1: Calculate current Owner Earnings (OCF − Maintenance CapEx)

Step 2: Calculate company-specific growth rate using log-linear regression on 16 quarters of Owner Earnings

Step 3: Project 10 years forward using the calculated growth rate

Step 4: Discount each year's cash flow to present value using 10% discount rate

Step 5: Calculate terminal value using 3% perpetual growth rate

Step 6: Sum all discounted cash flows = Intrinsic Value

What The Percentages Mean:

+50% or more

EXCELLENT — Very undervalued

+25% to +50%

GOOD — Attractive discount

0% to +25%

FAIR — Reasonable value

0% to -25%

CAUTION — Slight premium

-25% or worse

POOR — Overvalued

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get." — Warren Buffett

→ View full AVDL valuation analysis · → View full AVDL Brina Gap analysis

📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in.

Formula: Fundamental Growth Rate − Market-Implied Growth Rate

The Two Components:

Fundamental Growth Rate = ROIC × Reinvestment Rate

What the business can sustainably grow at based on how much it reinvests and what return it earns on that capital. Grounded in historical financials.

Market-Implied Growth Rate = Reverse DCF

The growth rate the current Enterprise Value implicitly assumes. Calculated by back-solving a 10-year DCF model (10% WACC, 3% terminal growth) until the present value of projected cash flows equals EV.

What The Gap Means:

Gap > +5% Market Underestimates — potential upside

+2% to +5% Slight Underestimate

-2% to +2% Fairly Priced — market consensus matches fundamentals

-5% to -2% Slight Overestimate

Gap < -5% Market Overestimates — price embeds optimism fundamentals don't support

A positive gap (market underestimates) combined with a positive Margin of Safety is the strongest combined signal — the business is both cheap historically and forward economics are stronger than the price suggests.

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):CRITICAL (-0.3%)

Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):EXCELLENT (0.04x)

Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):CRITICAL (1.8%)

Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):POOR (9.0%)

📊 Valuation Trilogy

Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis

Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis

Zyberno's Verdict

AVADEL PHARMACEUTICALS PLC (AVDL) stock report — Zyberno Score 35/100 (WEAK BUSINESS). Full financial analysis on Zyberno.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, AVADEL PHARMACEUTICALS PLC (AVDL) shows a Brina Gap of -60.6%, which weakens the case: based on the company's ROIC (9.0%) and reinvestment rate (-118.5%), the business can fundamentally grow at -10.6% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects 50.0%.

Over the trailing twelve months, AVDL generated -$70.71M in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $716.00K invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: -118.5%.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:21.64

Market Cap:$2.10B

Valuation Multiples (4)

P/E Ratio:

2,164.00x

📊 Click to view full AVDL P/E analysis →

P/B Ratio:21.39x

P/S Ratio:8.46x

Peg Ratio:-999.00x

Enterprise Metrics (2)

Enterprise Value:$2.03B

Ev Ebitda Ratio:270.84x

B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (7)

ROE:

-0.3%

📊 Click to view full AVDL ROE analysis →

ROA:-0.2%

Roic:

9.0%

📊 Click to view full AVDL ROIC analysis →

Reinvestment Rate:-118.5%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-10.6%

Market-Implied Growth Rate:50.0%

Brina Gap:

-60.6%

☷ Click to view full AVDL Brina Gap analysis →

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:1.8%

Net Margin Ttm:-0.1%

Ebitda Margin:3.0%

TTM Performance (3)

Gross Margin Ttm:94.9%

Operating Margin Ttm:1.8%

Net Margin Ttm:-0.1%

Yield Metrics (2)

Earnings Yield:$0.05

Dividend Yield:0.0%

C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Earnings Surprise (SUE) (3)

Earnings Surprise (SUE):

+0.01

📊 Click to view full AVDL Earnings Surprise analysis →

EPS Surprise vs Expected:100.0%

Latest Earnings Filed:2025-11-04

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):69.5%

D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:2.76x

Quick Ratio:2.37x

Cash Ratio:1.28x

Leverage Analysis (3)

Debt To Equity Ttm:0.04x

Debt-to-Equity Ratio:0.04x

Debt To Ebitda:0.91x

Coverage Ratios (2)

Interest Coverage Ratio:-4.37x

Times Interest Earned:-4.37

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:109,739,000.00

Cash And Cash Equivalents:79,813,000.00

Long Term Debt:$1.81M

Net Debt:-$72.99M

DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS

A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $248.52M

Linear Growth: 69.5%

📊 Click to view full AVDL Revenue analysis & methodology →

Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$22.91M

Profitability Breakdown (2)

Gross profit TTM: $235.88M

Linear Growth: 100.0%

📊 Click to view full AVDL Gross Profit analysis & methodology →

$4.52M

Bottom Line Performance (3)

-$278.00K

Income Before Tax:-$3.26M

Ebitda Ttm:7,489,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:231,354,000.00

R And D Expense:39,893,000.00

Sga Expense:191,461,000.00

Income Tax Expense:-$3.39M

Interest Expense:9,710,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:51.5%

Sga To Revenue Percentage:247.2%

Ebitda Margin:3.0%

B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$199.45M

Current Assets:$172.23M

Ppe Net:467,000.00

Goodwill:16,836,000.00

Intangible Assets:$0.00

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:101,223,000.00

Current Liabilities:62,487,000.00

Long Term Debt:$1.81M

Short Term Debt:$5.01M

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:$98.23M

Retained Earnings:-$789.56M

Common Stock:500,000,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:42,444,000.00

Inventory:23,905,000.00

Accounts Payable:44,156,000.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:0.00

Stock Based Compensation:4,183,000.00

C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

-$25.44M-$26.15M

Investment Activities (2)

Investing Cash Flow:$12.32M

Capital Expenditures Ttm:716,000.00

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:$690.00K

Dividends Paid Ttm:0.00

Stock Repurchase:0.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:0.00

Long Term Debt Issuance:$0.00

Long Term Debt Repayments:$0.00

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:2,965,000.00

DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS

A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (3)

EPS (Basic TTM):0.01

$0.01

Earnings Per Share Ttm:-$0.00

Revenue & Cash Per Share (2)

Sales Per Share Ttm:2.56

Operating Cash Flow Per Share:-$0.48

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:$1.01

Cash Per Share:0.82

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:-999.00x

B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:1.38x

Working Capital Turnover Ttm:2.26x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:5.86x

Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:62.34

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:0.96x

Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:380.85

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:703.49

Cash Conversion Cycle:-260.30

C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:100.00

Quality Score:40.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x

Volatility Category:unknown

DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

A. Value Investment Framework

Owner Earnings Analysis (1)

-$70.71M

Damodaran Growth Analysis (4)

Reinvestment Rate:-118.5%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-10.6%

Market-Implied Growth Rate:50.0%

Brina Gap:

-60.6%

☷ Click to view full AVDL Brina Gap analysis →

B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):69.5%

Other Growth Rates (2)

Gross Profit Growth Rate (Linear):100.0%

Book Value Growth Rate (Linear):-3.9%

C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:AVDL

Company Name:AVADEL PHARMACEUTICALS PLC

Sector:Healthcare

Industry:Pharmaceuticals

Exchange:NASDAQ

Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A

Price Category:medium

Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:97.10M

Shares Outstanding Basic:97.10M

Shares Outstanding Diluted:101.28M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0

Last Updated:2026-06-02 18:39:47 UTC

Data Timestamp:2026-06-02T18:39:47.573159