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ZYBERNO
Stock Report
Updated Aug 28, 2026

AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES, INC. (AVB)

Financial Services • NYSE

$184.06
AvalonBay Communities Inc. is an American real estate investment trust headquartered in Arlington, Virginia, that develops, redevelops, acquires, and manages apartment communities. As one of the largest apartment REITs in the United States, AvalonBay focuses on apartment communities in high barrier-to-entry markets with high quality-of-life characteristics across New England, the New York/New Jersey metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, Pacific Northwest, Northern and Southern California, and Colorado.

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →
Is it a great business? Is it getting better?
43.0/100
WEAK BUSINESS
AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES, INC. (AVB) scores 43/100 — weak fundamentals with mixed indicators requiring careful analysis before acting.
📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +
VALUATION SIGNAL
MARGIN OF SAFETY
Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?
-33.4%
Overvalued
Is the market underestimating or overestimating what this business is capable of going forward?
-8.3%
Market Overestimates
↑ UNDER
+50%
Brina Gap
-50%
↓ OVER
← OVERVALUED
-100%
Margin of Safety
UNDERVALUED →
+100%
UNDERESTIMATED
GROWTH
DOUBLE
DISCOUNT
EXPENSIVE
HYPE
VALUE
TRAP
0,0
MoS -33.4%  ·  Gap -8.3%

Two independent signals. One tells you if the stock is cheap relative to what the business has historically generated for owners — the Margin of Safety. The other tells you if the market is underestimating what the business is capable of going forward — the Brina Gap.

They are calculated from completely different data sources and answer completely different questions. The Margin of Safety reads the past. The Brina Gap reads the present economics and compares them against what the current stock price is assuming about the future.

When both point in the same direction simultaneously — DOUBLE DISCOUNT — the probability of genuine mispricing is high. The market is wrong on two independent dimensions at once, which is rare and significant.

The most dangerous scenario is not an overvalued stock — those are easy to avoid. It is a VALUE TRAP: a stock that appears cheap historically but where the market is already pricing in stronger growth than the business fundamentals support. Without the Brina Gap signal this looks identical to a genuine opportunity. The matrix separates them instantly.

The Brina Gap is the more powerful of the two signals. Most investors and analytical tools focus on valuation alone — whether a stock is cheap relative to earnings. Far fewer systematically compare what the business economics structurally support against what the stock price is actually assuming. That gap between fundamental growth potential and market expectations is where the most reliable mispricings live, and where this matrix earns its value.

Use this as your first filter. A stock in DOUBLE DISCOUNT territory is worth investigating. Everything else requires either more caution or a specific reason to act.

EXPENSIVE HYPE
In the Brina Matrix, AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES, INC. (AVB) registers Expensive Hype — Margin of Safety -33.4% and Brina Gap -8.3% are both unfavorable. The stock is priced above its historical earnings power and the market already assumes faster growth than the fundamentals support.
🎯 Expected Annual Return →
-3.0%
Margin of Safety convergence — your return if the market re-prices to intrinsic value (5-yr annualised)
-13.8%
Brina Gap convergence — your return if the market corrects the growth mispricing the Gap measures
2.6%
Yield + growth — what the business alone earns you, even if the market never re-rates
💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +
📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):POOR (8.6%)
Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):AVERAGE (0.76x)
Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):EXCELLENT (66.3%)
Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):POOR (9.2%)
📊 Valuation Trilogy
Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis
💎
Intrinsic Value
DCF Fair Value
$137.93
🛡️
Margin of Safety
Valuation Gap
-33.4%
🎯
Expected Return
Projected Annual
-3.0%
Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis
Zyberno's Verdict

According to Zyberno, AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES, INC. (AVB) is not a buy — WEAK BUSINESS (43/100) with a negative Margin of Safety of -33.4% and a Brina Gap of -8.3% showing the market already prices in more growth than the fundamentals support.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES, INC. (AVB) trades at $184.06 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $137.93 — a -33.4% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $1.40B TTM, projected at 2.8% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. The Brina Gap of -8.3% weakens the case: based on the company's ROIC (9.2%) and reinvestment rate (-29.9%), the business can fundamentally grow at -2.8% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects 5.6%. This places AVB in the Expensive Hype quadrant of the Brina Matrix, the most fragile combination — overvalued on cash AND overpriced on growth. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of -3.0% annually.

Over the trailing twelve months, AVB generated $1.40B in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $198.48M returned via share buybacks, $1.00B paid as dividends, $272.85M invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: -29.9%. Owner Earnings have grown at 2.8% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:184.06
Market Cap:$25.87B

Valuation Multiples (4)

P/E Ratio:
25.21x
📊 Click to view full AVB P/E analysis →
P/B Ratio:2.12x
P/S Ratio:8.39x
Peg Ratio:-999.00x

Enterprise Metrics (3)

Enterprise Value:$35.73B
Ev Ebitda Ratio:12.02x
Pfcf Ratio:18.46x

Price Action & Momentum (3)

12-1 Momentum:
+5.8% (33th pctile)
📈 Click to view full AVB Momentum analysis →
Momentum Percentile:33 / 100
% of 52-Week High:92.7%
B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (7)

ROE:
8.6%
📊 Click to view full AVB ROE analysis →
ROA:4.6%
Roic:
9.2%
📊 Click to view full AVB ROIC analysis →
Reinvestment Rate:-29.9%
Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-2.8%
Market-Implied Growth Rate:5.6%
Brina Gap:
-8.3%
☷ Click to view full AVB Brina Gap analysis →

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:66.3%
Net Margin Ttm:33.4%
Ebitda Margin:96.5%

TTM Performance (2)

Operating Margin Ttm:66.3%
Net Margin Ttm:33.4%

Yield Metrics (3)

Earnings Yield:$3.97
Owner Earnings Yield:$5.42
Dividend Yield:3.9%
C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Earnings Surprise (SUE) (3)

Earnings Surprise (SUE):
-0.60
📊 Click to view full AVB Earnings Surprise analysis →
EPS Surprise vs Expected:-41.0%
Latest Earnings Filed:2026-07-30

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):4.5%

Earnings Growth (Linear) (1)

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-4.0%

Cash Flow Growth (Linear) (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):2.8%
Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):4.6%

Operating Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):3.8%
D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:0.01x
Quick Ratio:0.01x
Cash Ratio:0.01x

Leverage Analysis (3)

Debt To Equity Ttm:0.76x
Debt-to-Equity Ratio:0.76x
Debt To Ebitda:3.34x

Coverage Ratios (2)

Interest Coverage Ratio:7.32x
Times Interest Earned:7.32

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:-9,991,011,000.00
Cash And Cash Equivalents:80,682,000.00
Long Term Debt:$9.02B
Net Debt:$9.86B
DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS
A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $3.08B
Linear Growth: 4.5%
📊 Click to view full AVB Revenue analysis & methodology →
Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$0.00

Profitability Breakdown (2)

$0.00
Operating income TTM: $2.04B
Linear Growth: 3.8%
📊 Click to view full AVB Operating Income analysis & methodology →

Bottom Line Performance (3)

Net income TTM: $1.03B
Linear Growth: -4.0%
📊 Click to view full AVB Net Income analysis & methodology →
Income Before Tax:$1.03B
Ebitda Ttm:2,973,281,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:2,480,559,000.00
R And D Expense:0.00
Sga Expense:93,116,000.00
Income Tax Expense:-$712.00K
Interest Expense:276,075,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:0.0%
Sga To Revenue Percentage:12.0%
Ebitda Margin:96.5%
B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$22.30B
Current Assets:$80.68M
Ppe Net:0.00
Goodwill:0.00
Intangible Assets:$0.00

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:10,071,693,000.00
Current Liabilities:10,071,693,000.00
Long Term Debt:$9.02B
Short Term Debt:$916.10M

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:$12.23B
Retained Earnings:$242.19M
Common Stock:280,000,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:0.00
Inventory:0.00
Accounts Payable:0.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:0.00
Stock Based Compensation:5,699,000.00
C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

Operating cash flow TTM: $1.67B
Linear Growth: 4.6%
Free cash flow TTM: $1.40B
Linear Growth: 2.8%
📊 Click to view full AVB Free Cash Flow analysis & methodology →

Investment Activities (2)

Investing Cash Flow:-$48.98M
Capital Expenditures Ttm:272,852,000.00

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:-$431.94M
Dividends Paid Ttm:1,003,944,000.00
Stock Repurchase:198,480,000.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:0.00
Long Term Debt Issuance:$0.00
Long Term Debt Repayments:$0.00

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:929,837,000.00
DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS
A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (3)

EPS (Basic TTM):7.29
Eps diluted TTM: $7.30
Linear Growth: -4.1%
📊 Click to view full AVB EPS analysis & methodology →
Earnings Per Share Ttm:$7.32

Revenue & Cash Per Share (3)

Sales Per Share Ttm:21.93
Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$11.89
Fcf Per Share Ttm:9.97

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:$87.00
Cash Per Share:0.57

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:99.01x
B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:0.14x
Working Capital Turnover Ttm:-999.00x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:-999.00x
Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:-999.00

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:-999.00x
Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:-999.00

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:-999.00
Cash Conversion Cycle:-999.00
C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:0.00
Quality Score:75.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x
Volatility Category:unknown
DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
A. Value Investment Framework

Owner Earnings Analysis (3)

Owner earnings TTM: $1.40B
Linear Growth: 2.8%
📊 Click to view full AVB Owner Earnings analysis & methodology →
Owner Earnings Per Share:$9.97
Owner Earnings Yield:$5.42

Growth Assessment (1)

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:$2.75

Damodaran Growth Analysis (4)

Reinvestment Rate:-29.9%
Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-2.8%
Market-Implied Growth Rate:5.6%
Brina Gap:
-8.3%
☷ Click to view full AVB Brina Gap analysis →

Intrinsic Value Models (1)

Intrinsic Value:
$19.39B
📊 Click to view full AVB DCF valuation →

Margin of Safety (1)

Margin Of Safety:
-33.4%
📊 Click to view full AVB valuation analysis →

Return Scenarios (2)

Theoretical 5-Year Return:
-3.0%
📊 Click to view full AVB expected return analysis →
Forward Expected Return (Yield + Growth):
2.6%
📊 Click to view full AVB expected return analysis →

Investment Assessment (1)

Buffett Assessment:Overvalued
B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (3)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):4.5%
Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-4.0%
Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):3.8%

Cash Flow Growth Rates (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):2.8%
Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):4.6%

Other Growth Rates (2)

Book Value Growth Rate (Linear):1.8%
Owner Earnings Growth Rate:$2.75
C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:AVB
Company Name:AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES, INC.
Sector:Financial Services
Industry:Real Estate
Exchange:NYSE
Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A
Price Category:high
Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:140.56M
Shares Outstanding Basic:140.56M
Shares Outstanding Diluted:141.83M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0
Last Updated:2026-08-28 21:41:57 UTC
Data Timestamp:2026-08-28T21:41:57.220672
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