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ZYBERNO

Stock Report

Updated Aug 31, 2026

ALPHATEC HOLDINGS, INC. (ATEC)

Healthcare • NASDAQ

$9.44

Alphatec Holdings Inc. is an American medical technology company headquartered in Carlsbad, California, that designs and distributes spinal fusion implants and surgical instruments. The company's products include EOS imaging technology for full-body spinal imaging, SafeOp neural monitoring, and a comprehensive portfolio of spinal implant systems for cervical, thoracic, and lumbar spine surgery.

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →

Is it a great business? Is it getting better?

20.0/100

POOR BUSINESS

ALPHATEC HOLDINGS, INC. (ATEC) scores 20/100 — concerning metrics indicating significant structural or financial risks.

📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +

The Zyberno Score answers one question: "Is this a quality business worth owning?" It's a 0-100 investment grade that evaluates business fundamentals across four critical dimensions, based on principles from Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, and Charlie Munger.

The 4 Core Categories (25 points each):

1. PROFITABILITY (25 pts)

Metrics: ROE, ROIC, Net Margin, Operating Margin
Thresholds: ROE >20% excellent • ROIC >20% excellent • Net Margin >20% excellent • Operating Margin >25% excellent

2. FINANCIAL STRENGTH (25 pts)

Metrics: Debt-to-Equity, Current Ratio, Interest Coverage, Altman Z-Score
Thresholds: D/E <0.3 excellent • Current Ratio >2.5 excellent • Interest Coverage >10x excellent • Altman Z >3.0 safe

3. CASH FLOW QUALITY (25 pts)

Metrics: Free Cash Flow, OCF vs Net Income, FCF Margin
Thresholds: Positive & growing FCF excellent • OCF/NI >1.2x excellent (cash earnings exceed accounting)

4. GROWTH & CONSISTENCY (25 pts)

Metrics: Revenue Growth, Net Income Growth, FCF Growth, Piotroski F-Score
Thresholds: Growth via log-linear regression • Piotroski 8-9 excellent, 6-7 good

Score Interpretation:

75-100

GREAT BUSINESS

65-74

GOOD BUSINESS

50-64

AVERAGE BUSINESS

30-49

WEAK BUSINESS

0-29

POOR BUSINESS

→ View full ATEC quality analysis & detailed breakdown

VALUATION SIGNAL

MARGIN OF SAFETY

Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?

-100.0%

Overvalued

Growth gap unavailable — insufficient data for reverse DCF calculation.

🎯 Expected Annual Return →

-63.0%

Margin of Safety convergence — your return if the market re-prices to intrinsic value (5-yr annualised)

-7.4%

Yield + growth — what the business alone earns you, even if the market never re-rates

💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +

Margin of Safety measures how much discount or premium you're paying relative to a stock's intrinsic value. It's Benjamin Graham's core principle: the larger the margin, the lower your downside risk.

Formula: (Intrinsic Value − Current Price) ÷ Intrinsic Value × 100%

How We Calculate Intrinsic Value (DCF Method):

Step 1: Calculate current Owner Earnings (OCF − Maintenance CapEx)

Step 2: Calculate company-specific growth rate using log-linear regression on 16 quarters of Owner Earnings

Step 3: Project 10 years forward using the calculated growth rate

Step 4: Discount each year's cash flow to present value using 10% discount rate

Step 5: Calculate terminal value using 3% perpetual growth rate

Step 6: Sum all discounted cash flows = Intrinsic Value

What The Percentages Mean:

+50% or more

EXCELLENT — Very undervalued

+25% to +50%

GOOD — Attractive discount

0% to +25%

FAIR — Reasonable value

0% to -25%

CAUTION — Slight premium

-25% or worse

POOR — Overvalued

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get." — Warren Buffett

→ View full ATEC valuation analysis · → View full ATEC Brina Gap analysis

📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in.

Formula: Fundamental Growth Rate − Market-Implied Growth Rate

The Two Components:

Fundamental Growth Rate = ROIC × Reinvestment Rate

What the business can sustainably grow at based on how much it reinvests and what return it earns on that capital. Grounded in historical financials.

Market-Implied Growth Rate = Reverse DCF

The growth rate the current Enterprise Value implicitly assumes. Calculated by back-solving a 10-year DCF model (10% WACC, 3% terminal growth) until the present value of projected cash flows equals EV.

What The Gap Means:

Gap > +5% Market Underestimates — potential upside

+2% to +5% Slight Underestimate

-2% to +2% Fairly Priced — market consensus matches fundamentals

-5% to -2% Slight Overestimate

Gap < -5% Market Overestimates — price embeds optimism fundamentals don't support

A positive gap (market underestimates) combined with a positive Margin of Safety is the strongest combined signal — the business is both cheap historically and forward economics are stronger than the price suggests.

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):CRITICAL (-6,752.2%)

Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):EXCELLENT (0.00x)

Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):CRITICAL (-6.0%)

Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):CRITICAL (-8.3%)

📊 Valuation Trilogy

Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis

Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis

Zyberno's Verdict

ALPHATEC HOLDINGS, INC. (ATEC) stock report — Zyberno Score 20/100 (POOR BUSINESS), Margin of Safety -100.0%, -63% expected annual return. Full financial analysis on Zyberno.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, ALPHATEC HOLDINGS, INC. (ATEC) trades at $9.44 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $0.20 — a -100.0% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $6.95M TTM, projected at -20.0% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of -63.0% annually.

Over the trailing twelve months, ATEC generated $6.95M in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $44.61M invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: 94.9%. Owner Earnings have declined at 20.0% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:9.44

Market Cap:$1.48B

Valuation Multiples (2)

P/S Ratio:1.81x

Peg Ratio:-999.00x

Enterprise Metrics (3)

Enterprise Value:$1.94B

Ev Ebitda Ratio:49.01x

Pfcf Ratio:212.70x

Price Action & Momentum (3)

12-1 Momentum:

-18.1% (21th pctile)

📈 Click to view full ATEC Momentum analysis →

Momentum Percentile:21 / 100

% of 52-Week High:40.5%

B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (5)

ROE:

-6,752.2%

📊 Click to view full ATEC ROE analysis →

ROA:-13.9%

Roic:

-8.3%

📊 Click to view full ATEC ROIC analysis →

Reinvestment Rate:94.9%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-7.9%

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:-6.0%

Net Margin Ttm:-13.5%

Ebitda Margin:4.8%

TTM Performance (3)

Gross Margin Ttm:70.8%

Operating Margin Ttm:-6.0%

Net Margin Ttm:-13.5%

Yield Metrics (3)

Earnings Yield:-$7.63

Owner Earnings Yield:$0.47

Dividend Yield:0.0%

C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Earnings Surprise (SUE) (3)

Earnings Surprise (SUE):

+0.93

📊 Click to view full ATEC Earnings Surprise analysis →

EPS Surprise vs Expected:32.1%

Latest Earnings Filed:2026-08-04

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):24.8%

Cash Flow Growth (Linear) (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-19.8%

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-50.0%

D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:1.89x

Quick Ratio:1.07x

Cash Ratio:0.50x

Leverage Analysis (1)

Debt To Ebitda:14.58x

Coverage Ratios (2)

Interest Coverage Ratio:-1.69x

Times Interest Earned:-1.69

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:211,049,000.00

Cash And Cash Equivalents:118,662,000.00

Long Term Debt:$510.74M

Net Debt:$457.09M

DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS

A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $815.05M

Linear Growth: 24.8%

📊 Click to view full ATEC Revenue analysis & methodology →

Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$237.69M

Profitability Breakdown (2)

Gross profit TTM: $577.37M

Linear Growth: 29.0%

📊 Click to view full ATEC Gross Profit analysis & methodology →

-$49.24M

Bottom Line Performance (3)

-$109.99M

Income Before Tax:-$109.73M

Ebitda Ttm:39,482,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:626,606,000.00

R And D Expense:77,144,000.00

Sga Expense:524,060,000.00

Income Tax Expense:$262.00K

Interest Expense:48,457,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:36.1%

Sga To Revenue Percentage:245.4%

Ebitda Margin:4.8%

B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$791.03M

Current Assets:$449.02M

Ppe Net:139,237,000.00

Goodwill:74,167,000.00

Intangible Assets:$88.30M

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:803,095,000.00

Current Liabilities:237,966,000.00

Long Term Debt:$510.74M

Short Term Debt:$65.01M

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:-$12.07M

Retained Earnings:-$1.48B

Common Stock:400,000,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:110,126,000.00

Inventory:194,888,000.00

Accounts Payable:62,105,000.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:12,560,000.00

Stock Based Compensation:18,147,000.00

C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

Operating cash flow TTM: $51.56M

Linear Growth: -50.0%

Free cash flow TTM: $6.95M

Linear Growth: -19.8%

📊 Click to view full ATEC Free Cash Flow analysis & methodology →

Investment Activities (2)

Investing Cash Flow:-$19.89M

Capital Expenditures Ttm:44,612,000.00

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:-$1.77M

Dividends Paid Ttm:0.00

Stock Repurchase:0.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:131,828,000.00

Long Term Debt Issuance:$0.00

Long Term Debt Repayments:$0.00

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:88,723,000.00

DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS

A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (3)

EPS (Basic TTM):-0.72

-$0.72

Earnings Per Share Ttm:-$0.70

Revenue & Cash Per Share (3)

Sales Per Share Ttm:5.21

Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$0.29

Fcf Per Share Ttm:0.04

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:-$0.08

Cash Per Share:0.76

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:-999.00x

B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:1.03x

Working Capital Turnover Ttm:3.86x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:7.40x

Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:49.32

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:1.22x

Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:299.28

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:95.37

Cash Conversion Cycle:253.22

C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:40.00

Quality Score:35.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x

Volatility Category:unknown

DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

A. Value Investment Framework

Owner Earnings Analysis (3)

Owner earnings TTM: $6.95M

Linear Growth: -20.0%

📊 Click to view full ATEC Owner Earnings analysis & methodology →

Owner Earnings Per Share:$0.04

Owner Earnings Yield:$0.47

Growth Assessment (1)

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:-$19.97

Damodaran Growth Analysis (2)

Reinvestment Rate:94.9%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-7.9%

Intrinsic Value Models (1)

Intrinsic Value:

$31.04M

📊 Click to view full ATEC DCF valuation →

Margin of Safety (1)

Margin Of Safety:

-100.0%

📊 Click to view full ATEC valuation analysis →

Return Scenarios (2)

Theoretical 5-Year Return:

-63.0%

📊 Click to view full ATEC expected return analysis →

Forward Expected Return (Yield + Growth):

-7.4%

📊 Click to view full ATEC expected return analysis →

Investment Assessment (1)

Buffett Assessment:Overvalued

B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):24.8%

Cash Flow Growth Rates (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-19.8%

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-50.0%

Other Growth Rates (3)

Gross Profit Growth Rate (Linear):29.0%

Book Value Growth Rate (Linear):-12.2%

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:-$19.97

C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:ATEC

Company Name:ALPHATEC HOLDINGS, INC.

Sector:Healthcare

Industry:Medical Devices

Exchange:NASDAQ

Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A

Price Category:low

Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:156.58M

Shares Outstanding Basic:156.58M

Shares Outstanding Diluted:156.58M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0

Last Updated:2026-08-31 20:42:43 UTC

Data Timestamp:2026-08-31T20:42:43.985680