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ZYBERNO
Stock Report
Updated Aug 31, 2026

Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH)

NASDAQ

$37.96

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →
Is it a great business? Is it getting better?
36.0/100
WEAK BUSINESS
Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) scores 36/100 — weak fundamentals with mixed indicators requiring careful analysis before acting.
📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +
VALUATION SIGNAL
MARGIN OF SAFETY
Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?
-100.0%
Overvalued
Is the market underestimating or overestimating what this business is capable of going forward?
+17.6%
Market Underestimates
↑ UNDER
+50%
Brina Gap
-50%
↓ OVER
← OVERVALUED
-100%
Margin of Safety
UNDERVALUED →
+100%
UNDERESTIMATED
GROWTH
DOUBLE
DISCOUNT
EXPENSIVE
HYPE
VALUE
TRAP
0,0
MoS -100.0%  ·  Gap +17.6%

Two independent signals. One tells you if the stock is cheap relative to what the business has historically generated for owners — the Margin of Safety. The other tells you if the market is underestimating what the business is capable of going forward — the Brina Gap.

They are calculated from completely different data sources and answer completely different questions. The Margin of Safety reads the past. The Brina Gap reads the present economics and compares them against what the current stock price is assuming about the future.

When both point in the same direction simultaneously — DOUBLE DISCOUNT — the probability of genuine mispricing is high. The market is wrong on two independent dimensions at once, which is rare and significant.

The most dangerous scenario is not an overvalued stock — those are easy to avoid. It is a VALUE TRAP: a stock that appears cheap historically but where the market is already pricing in stronger growth than the business fundamentals support. Without the Brina Gap signal this looks identical to a genuine opportunity. The matrix separates them instantly.

The Brina Gap is the more powerful of the two signals. Most investors and analytical tools focus on valuation alone — whether a stock is cheap relative to earnings. Far fewer systematically compare what the business economics structurally support against what the stock price is actually assuming. That gap between fundamental growth potential and market expectations is where the most reliable mispricings live, and where this matrix earns its value.

Use this as your first filter. A stock in DOUBLE DISCOUNT territory is worth investigating. Everything else requires either more caution or a specific reason to act.

EXPENSIVE WITH GROWTH POTENTIAL
Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) trades at a premium (Margin of Safety -100.0%) despite the market underestimating forward growth (Brina Gap +17.6%). No margin of safety at current price.
🎯 Expected Annual Return →
-66.4%
Margin of Safety convergence — your return if the market re-prices to intrinsic value (5-yr annualised)
28.9%
Brina Gap convergence — your return if the market corrects the growth mispricing the Gap measures
20.1%
Yield + growth — what the business alone earns you, even if the market never re-rates
💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +
📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):POOR (6.5%)
Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):POOR (1.18x)
Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):POOR (3.4%)
Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):CRITICAL (4.7%)
📊 Valuation Trilogy
Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis
💎
Intrinsic Value
DCF Fair Value
$0.25
🛡️
Margin of Safety
Valuation Gap
-100.0%
🎯
Expected Return
Projected Annual
-66.4%
Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis
Zyberno's Verdict

According to Zyberno, Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) shows Underestimated Growth — WEAK BUSINESS (36/100) with a Brina Gap of +17.6% showing underestimated forward growth, but no margin of safety at -100.0%.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) trades at $37.96 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $0.25 — a -100.0% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $1.53M TTM, projected at -8.3% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. The Brina Gap of +17.6% strengthens the case: based on the company's ROIC (4.7%) and reinvestment rate (701.7%), the business can fundamentally grow at 32.7% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects 15.1%. This places ASTH in the Underestimated Growth quadrant of the Brina Matrix, where growth is underestimated but no margin of safety on existing cash. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of -66.4% annually.

Over the trailing twelve months, ASTH generated $1.53M in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $15.00M returned via share buybacks, $13.24M paid as dividends, $11.22M invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: 701.7%. Owner Earnings have declined at 8.3% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:37.96
Market Cap:$1.86B

Valuation Multiples (4)

P/E Ratio:
36.15x
📊 Click to view full ASTH P/E analysis →
P/B Ratio:2.22x
P/S Ratio:0.58x
Peg Ratio:-999.00x

Enterprise Metrics (3)

Enterprise Value:$2.59B
Ev Ebitda Ratio:16.88x
Pfcf Ratio:1,217.00x

Price Action & Momentum (3)

12-1 Momentum:
+60.0% (90th pctile)
📈 Click to view full ASTH Momentum analysis →
Momentum Percentile:90 / 100
% of 52-Week High:73.6%
B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (7)

ROE:
6.5%
📊 Click to view full ASTH ROE analysis →
ROA:2.5%
Roic:
4.7%
📊 Click to view full ASTH ROIC analysis →
Reinvestment Rate:701.7%
Fundamental Growth Rate (g):32.7%
Market-Implied Growth Rate:15.1%
Brina Gap:
17.6%
☷ Click to view full ASTH Brina Gap analysis →

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:3.4%
Net Margin Ttm:1.6%
Ebitda Margin:4.8%

TTM Performance (2)

Operating Margin Ttm:3.4%
Net Margin Ttm:1.6%

Yield Metrics (3)

Earnings Yield:$2.77
Owner Earnings Yield:$0.08
Dividend Yield:0.7%
C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Earnings Surprise (SUE) (3)

Earnings Surprise (SUE):
+1.17
📊 Click to view full ASTH Earnings Surprise analysis →
EPS Surprise vs Expected:122.2%
Latest Earnings Filed:2026-08-10

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):37.3%

Earnings Growth (Linear) (1)

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-20.4%

Cash Flow Growth (Linear) (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):10.4%
Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-1.1%

Operating Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):5.5%
D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:1.23x
Quick Ratio:1.23x
Cash Ratio:0.54x

Leverage Analysis (3)

Debt To Equity Ttm:1.18x
Debt-to-Equity Ratio:1.18x
Debt To Ebitda:7.35x

Coverage Ratios (2)

Interest Coverage Ratio:1.58x
Times Interest Earned:1.58

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:171,521,000.00
Cash And Cash Equivalents:400,792,000.00
Long Term Debt:$882.65M
Net Debt:$727.72M
DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS
A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $3.19B
Linear Growth: 37.3%
📊 Click to view full ASTH Revenue analysis & methodology →
Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$0.00

Profitability Breakdown (2)

$0.00
Operating income TTM: $107.81M
Linear Growth: 5.5%
📊 Click to view full ASTH Operating Income analysis & methodology →

Bottom Line Performance (3)

Net income TTM: $51.65M
Linear Growth: -20.4%
📊 Click to view full ASTH Net Income analysis & methodology →
Income Before Tax:$83.64M
Ebitda Ttm:153,556,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:3,104,870,000.00
R And D Expense:0.00
Sga Expense:209,669,000.00
Income Tax Expense:$30.90M
Interest Expense:49,824,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:0.0%
Sga To Revenue Percentage:21.6%
Ebitda Margin:4.8%
B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$2.28B
Current Assets:$919.16M
Ppe Net:62,567,000.00
Goodwill:886,995,000.00
Intangible Assets:$243.31M

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:1,441,240,000.00
Current Liabilities:747,639,000.00
Long Term Debt:$882.65M
Short Term Debt:$245.86M

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:$840.84M
Retained Earnings:$342.36M
Common Stock:100,000,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:465,080,000.00
Inventory:0.00
Accounts Payable:245,860,000.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:686,000.00
Stock Based Compensation:11,800,000.00
C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

Operating cash flow TTM: $12.75M
Linear Growth: -1.1%
Free cash flow TTM: $1.53M
Linear Growth: 10.4%
📊 Click to view full ASTH Free Cash Flow analysis & methodology →

Investment Activities (2)

Investing Cash Flow:-$1.06M
Capital Expenditures Ttm:11,217,000.00

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:-$26.34M
Dividends Paid Ttm:13,236,000.00
Stock Repurchase:15,000,000.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:0.00
Long Term Debt Issuance:$412.00M
Long Term Debt Repayments:$428.23M
DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS
A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (3)

EPS (Basic TTM):1.05
Eps diluted TTM: $1.05
Linear Growth: -20.5%
📊 Click to view full ASTH EPS analysis & methodology →
Earnings Per Share Ttm:$1.05

Revenue & Cash Per Share (3)

Sales Per Share Ttm:64.93
Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$2.33
Fcf Per Share Ttm:0.03

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:$17.12
Cash Per Share:8.16

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:15.27x
B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:1.56x
Working Capital Turnover Ttm:18.59x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:6.86x
Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:53.23

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:-999.00x
Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:-999.00

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:28.14
Cash Conversion Cycle:-973.91
C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:20.00
Quality Score:70.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x
Volatility Category:unknown
DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
A. Value Investment Framework

Owner Earnings Analysis (3)

Owner earnings TTM: $1.53M
Linear Growth: -8.3%
📊 Click to view full ASTH Owner Earnings analysis & methodology →
Owner Earnings Per Share:$0.03
Owner Earnings Yield:$0.08

Growth Assessment (1)

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:-$8.34

Damodaran Growth Analysis (4)

Reinvestment Rate:701.7%
Fundamental Growth Rate (g):32.7%
Market-Implied Growth Rate:15.1%
Brina Gap:
17.6%
☷ Click to view full ASTH Brina Gap analysis →

Intrinsic Value Models (1)

Intrinsic Value:
$12.28M
📊 Click to view full ASTH DCF valuation →

Margin of Safety (1)

Margin Of Safety:
-100.0%
📊 Click to view full ASTH valuation analysis →

Return Scenarios (2)

Theoretical 5-Year Return:
-66.4%
📊 Click to view full ASTH expected return analysis →
Forward Expected Return (Yield + Growth):
20.1%
📊 Click to view full ASTH expected return analysis →

Investment Assessment (1)

Buffett Assessment:Overvalued
B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (3)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):37.3%
Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-20.4%
Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):5.5%

Cash Flow Growth Rates (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):10.4%
Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-1.1%

Other Growth Rates (2)

Book Value Growth Rate (Linear):15.2%
Owner Earnings Growth Rate:-$8.34
C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:ASTH
Company Name:Astrana Health, Inc.
Sector:Unknown
Industry:Services-Management Consulting Services
Exchange:NASDAQ
Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A
Price Category:medium
Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:49.12M
Shares Outstanding Basic:49.12M
Shares Outstanding Diluted:49.78M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0
Last Updated:2026-08-31 08:37:04 UTC
Data Timestamp:2026-08-31T08:37:04.440991
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