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ZYBERNO

Stock Report

Updated Aug 31, 2026

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI)

Financial Services • NYSE

$6.85

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →

Is it a great business? Is it getting better?

31.0/100

WEAK BUSINESS

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) scores 31/100 — weak fundamentals with mixed indicators requiring careful analysis before acting.

📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +

The Zyberno Score answers one question: "Is this a quality business worth owning?" It's a 0-100 investment grade that evaluates business fundamentals across four critical dimensions, based on principles from Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, and Charlie Munger.

The 4 Core Categories (25 points each):

1. PROFITABILITY (25 pts)

Metrics: ROE, ROIC, Net Margin, Operating Margin
Thresholds: ROE >20% excellent • ROIC >20% excellent • Net Margin >20% excellent • Operating Margin >25% excellent

2. FINANCIAL STRENGTH (25 pts)

Metrics: Debt-to-Equity, Current Ratio, Interest Coverage, Altman Z-Score
Thresholds: D/E <0.3 excellent • Current Ratio >2.5 excellent • Interest Coverage >10x excellent • Altman Z >3.0 safe

3. CASH FLOW QUALITY (25 pts)

Metrics: Free Cash Flow, OCF vs Net Income, FCF Margin
Thresholds: Positive & growing FCF excellent • OCF/NI >1.2x excellent (cash earnings exceed accounting)

4. GROWTH & CONSISTENCY (25 pts)

Metrics: Revenue Growth, Net Income Growth, FCF Growth, Piotroski F-Score
Thresholds: Growth via log-linear regression • Piotroski 8-9 excellent, 6-7 good

Score Interpretation:

75-100

GREAT BUSINESS

65-74

GOOD BUSINESS

50-64

AVERAGE BUSINESS

30-49

WEAK BUSINESS

0-29

POOR BUSINESS

→ View full ARI quality analysis & detailed breakdown

VALUATION SIGNAL

N/A (Requires more data)

Requires fair value calculation and current price data

💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +

Margin of Safety measures how much discount or premium you're paying relative to a stock's intrinsic value. It's Benjamin Graham's core principle: the larger the margin, the lower your downside risk.

Formula: (Intrinsic Value − Current Price) ÷ Intrinsic Value × 100%

How We Calculate Intrinsic Value (DCF Method):

Step 1: Calculate current Owner Earnings (OCF − Maintenance CapEx)

Step 2: Calculate company-specific growth rate using log-linear regression on 16 quarters of Owner Earnings

Step 3: Project 10 years forward using the calculated growth rate

Step 4: Discount each year's cash flow to present value using 10% discount rate

Step 5: Calculate terminal value using 3% perpetual growth rate

Step 6: Sum all discounted cash flows = Intrinsic Value

What The Percentages Mean:

+50% or more

EXCELLENT — Very undervalued

+25% to +50%

GOOD — Attractive discount

0% to +25%

FAIR — Reasonable value

0% to -25%

CAUTION — Slight premium

-25% or worse

POOR — Overvalued

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get." — Warren Buffett

→ View full ARI valuation analysis · → View full ARI Brina Gap analysis

📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in.

Formula: Fundamental Growth Rate − Market-Implied Growth Rate

The Two Components:

Fundamental Growth Rate = ROIC × Reinvestment Rate

What the business can sustainably grow at based on how much it reinvests and what return it earns on that capital. Grounded in historical financials.

Market-Implied Growth Rate = Reverse DCF

The growth rate the current Enterprise Value implicitly assumes. Calculated by back-solving a 10-year DCF model (10% WACC, 3% terminal growth) until the present value of projected cash flows equals EV.

What The Gap Means:

Gap > +5% Market Underestimates — potential upside

+2% to +5% Slight Underestimate

-2% to +2% Fairly Priced — market consensus matches fundamentals

-5% to -2% Slight Overestimate

Gap < -5% Market Overestimates — price embeds optimism fundamentals don't support

A positive gap (market underestimates) combined with a positive Margin of Safety is the strongest combined signal — the business is both cheap historically and forward economics are stronger than the price suggests.

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):POOR (7.8%)

Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):EXCELLENT (0.00x)

Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):EXCELLENT (55.6%)

Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):NEUTRAL (859.6%)

📊 Valuation Trilogy

Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis

Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis

Zyberno's Verdict

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) stock report — Zyberno Score 31/100 (WEAK BUSINESS). Full financial analysis on Zyberno.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:6.85

Market Cap:$897.50M

Valuation Multiples (4)

P/E Ratio:

8.56x

📊 Click to view full ARI P/E analysis →

P/B Ratio:0.72x

P/S Ratio:3.77x

Peg Ratio:-999.00x

Enterprise Metrics (2)

Enterprise Value:-$341.98M

Ev Ebitda Ratio:-2.32x

Price Action & Momentum (3)

12-1 Momentum:

-25.1% (63th pctile)

📈 Click to view full ARI Momentum analysis →

Momentum Percentile:63 / 100

% of 52-Week High:60.9%

B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (5)

ROE:

7.8%

📊 Click to view full ARI ROE analysis →

ROA:1.7%

Roic:

859.6%

📊 Click to view full ARI ROIC analysis →

Reinvestment Rate:-8.5%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-72.7%

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:55.6%

Net Margin Ttm:55.5%

Ebitda Margin:61.9%

TTM Performance (2)

Operating Margin Ttm:55.6%

Net Margin Ttm:55.5%

Yield Metrics (2)

Earnings Yield:$11.68

Dividend Yield:15.8%

C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Earnings Surprise (SUE) (3)

Earnings Surprise (SUE):

+0.02

📊 Click to view full ARI Earnings Surprise analysis →

EPS Surprise vs Expected:12.8%

Latest Earnings Filed:2026-08-10

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):-11.9%

Earnings Growth (Linear) (1)

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-30.3%

Cash Flow Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-32.7%

Operating Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):-15.7%

D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:1.41x

Quick Ratio:1.41x

Cash Ratio:1.41x

Leverage Analysis (3)

Debt To Equity Ttm:0.00x

Debt-to-Equity Ratio:0.00x

Debt To Ebitda:0.00x

Coverage Ratios (2)

Interest Coverage Ratio:0.55x

Times Interest Earned:0.55

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:358,036,000.00

Cash And Cash Equivalents:1,239,480,000.00

Long Term Debt:$0.00

Net Debt:-$1.24B

DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS

A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $237.89M

Linear Growth: -11.9%

📊 Click to view full ARI Revenue analysis & methodology →

Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$0.00

Profitability Breakdown (2)

$0.00

Operating income TTM: $132.35M

Linear Growth: -15.7%

📊 Click to view full ARI Operating Income analysis & methodology →

Bottom Line Performance (3)

Net income TTM: $132.00M

Linear Growth: -30.3%

📊 Click to view full ARI Net Income analysis & methodology →

Income Before Tax:$132.35M

Ebitda Ttm:147,150,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:154,308,000.00

R And D Expense:0.00

Sga Expense:25,959,000.00

Income Tax Expense:$588.00K

Interest Expense:231,644,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:0.0%

Sga To Revenue Percentage:58.5%

Ebitda Margin:61.9%

B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$2.14B

Current Assets:$1.24B

Ppe Net:0.00

Goodwill:0.00

Intangible Assets:$0.00

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:881,444,000.00

Current Liabilities:881,444,000.00

Long Term Debt:$0.00

Short Term Debt:$0.00

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:$1.25B

Retained Earnings:-$1.33B

Common Stock:450,000,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:0.00

Inventory:0.00

Accounts Payable:0.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:0.00

Stock Based Compensation:3,000,000.00

C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

Operating cash flow TTM: $115.77M

Linear Growth: -32.7%

$0.00

Investment Activities (1)

Investing Cash Flow:-$226.73M

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:$200.81M

Dividends Paid Ttm:141,460,000.00

Stock Repurchase:30,284,000.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:0.00

Long Term Debt Issuance:$0.00

Long Term Debt Repayments:$73.70M

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:14,798,000.00

DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS

A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (3)

EPS (Basic TTM):0.80

Eps diluted TTM: $0.80

Linear Growth: -14.1%

📊 Click to view full ARI EPS analysis & methodology →

Earnings Per Share Ttm:$1.01

Revenue & Cash Per Share (2)

Sales Per Share Ttm:1.82

Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$1.09

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:$9.58

Cash Per Share:9.46

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:118.57x

B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:0.03x

Working Capital Turnover Ttm:0.66x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:-999.00x

Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:-999.00

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:-999.00x

Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:-999.00

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:-999.00

Cash Conversion Cycle:-999.00

C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:80.00

Quality Score:95.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x

Volatility Category:unknown

DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

A. Value Investment Framework

Damodaran Growth Analysis (2)

Reinvestment Rate:-8.5%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-72.7%

B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (3)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):-11.9%

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-30.3%

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):-15.7%

Cash Flow Growth Rates (1)

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-32.7%

Other Growth Rates (1)

Book Value Growth Rate (Linear):-9.2%

C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:ARI

Company Name:Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.

Sector:Financial Services

Industry:Real Estate

Exchange:NYSE

Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A

Price Category:low

Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:131.02M

Shares Outstanding Basic:131.02M

Shares Outstanding Diluted:131.60M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0

Last Updated:2026-08-31 17:09:32 UTC

Data Timestamp:2026-08-31T17:09:32.586473