Technology • NYSE
According to Zyberno, AMPHENOL CORPORATION (APH) is not a buy — GREAT BUSINESS (75/100) with a negative Margin of Safety of -34.2% and a Brina Gap of -3.4% showing the market already prices in more growth than the fundamentals support.
According to Zyberno's DCF model, AMPHENOL CORPORATION (APH) trades at $161.38 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $120.22 — a -34.2% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $4.75B TTM, projected at 28.7% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. The Brina Gap of -3.4% weakens the case: based on the company's ROIC (18.3%) and reinvestment rate (66.5%), the business can fundamentally grow at 12.2% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects 15.6%. This places APH in the Expensive Hype quadrant of the Brina Matrix, the most fragile combination — overvalued on cash AND overpriced on growth. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of 13.1% annually.
Over the trailing twelve months, APH generated $4.75B in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $178.00M returned via share buybacks, $1.02B paid as dividends, $1.10B invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: 66.5%. Owner Earnings have grown at 28.7% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.