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ZYBERNO

Stock Report

Updated Aug 26, 2026

ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING S.A. (AMPWF)

Industrial • OTC

$0.00

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →

Is it a great business? Is it getting better?

23.0/100

POOR BUSINESS

ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING S.A. (AMPWF) scores 23/100 — concerning metrics indicating significant structural or financial risks.

📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +

The Zyberno Score answers one question: "Is this a quality business worth owning?" It's a 0-100 investment grade that evaluates business fundamentals across four critical dimensions, based on principles from Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, and Charlie Munger.

The 4 Core Categories (25 points each):

1. PROFITABILITY (25 pts)

Metrics: ROE, ROIC, Net Margin, Operating Margin
Thresholds: ROE >20% excellent • ROIC >20% excellent • Net Margin >20% excellent • Operating Margin >25% excellent

2. FINANCIAL STRENGTH (25 pts)

Metrics: Debt-to-Equity, Current Ratio, Interest Coverage, Altman Z-Score
Thresholds: D/E <0.3 excellent • Current Ratio >2.5 excellent • Interest Coverage >10x excellent • Altman Z >3.0 safe

3. CASH FLOW QUALITY (25 pts)

Metrics: Free Cash Flow, OCF vs Net Income, FCF Margin
Thresholds: Positive & growing FCF excellent • OCF/NI >1.2x excellent (cash earnings exceed accounting)

4. GROWTH & CONSISTENCY (25 pts)

Metrics: Revenue Growth, Net Income Growth, FCF Growth, Piotroski F-Score
Thresholds: Growth via log-linear regression • Piotroski 8-9 excellent, 6-7 good

Score Interpretation:

75-100

GREAT BUSINESS

65-74

GOOD BUSINESS

50-64

AVERAGE BUSINESS

30-49

WEAK BUSINESS

0-29

POOR BUSINESS

→ View full AMPWF quality analysis & detailed breakdown

VALUATION SIGNAL

MARGIN OF SAFETY

Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?

Margin of Safety unavailable — insufficient data for the owner-earnings DCF.

BRINA GAP ↗

Is the market underestimating or overestimating what this business is capable of going forward?

-17.6%

Market Overestimates

💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +

Margin of Safety measures how much discount or premium you're paying relative to a stock's intrinsic value. It's Benjamin Graham's core principle: the larger the margin, the lower your downside risk.

Formula: (Intrinsic Value − Current Price) ÷ Intrinsic Value × 100%

How We Calculate Intrinsic Value (DCF Method):

Step 1: Calculate current Owner Earnings (OCF − Maintenance CapEx)

Step 2: Calculate company-specific growth rate using log-linear regression on 16 quarters of Owner Earnings

Step 3: Project 10 years forward using the calculated growth rate

Step 4: Discount each year's cash flow to present value using 10% discount rate

Step 5: Calculate terminal value using 3% perpetual growth rate

Step 6: Sum all discounted cash flows = Intrinsic Value

What The Percentages Mean:

+50% or more

EXCELLENT — Very undervalued

+25% to +50%

GOOD — Attractive discount

0% to +25%

FAIR — Reasonable value

0% to -25%

CAUTION — Slight premium

-25% or worse

POOR — Overvalued

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get." — Warren Buffett

→ View full AMPWF valuation analysis · → View full AMPWF Brina Gap analysis

📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in.

Formula: Fundamental Growth Rate − Market-Implied Growth Rate

The Two Components:

Fundamental Growth Rate = ROIC × Reinvestment Rate

What the business can sustainably grow at based on how much it reinvests and what return it earns on that capital. Grounded in historical financials.

Market-Implied Growth Rate = Reverse DCF

The growth rate the current Enterprise Value implicitly assumes. Calculated by back-solving a 10-year DCF model (10% WACC, 3% terminal growth) until the present value of projected cash flows equals EV.

What The Gap Means:

Gap > +5% Market Underestimates — potential upside

+2% to +5% Slight Underestimate

-2% to +2% Fairly Priced — market consensus matches fundamentals

-5% to -2% Slight Overestimate

Gap < -5% Market Overestimates — price embeds optimism fundamentals don't support

A positive gap (market underestimates) combined with a positive Margin of Safety is the strongest combined signal — the business is both cheap historically and forward economics are stronger than the price suggests.

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):CRITICAL (0.0%)

Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):EXCELLENT (0.00x)

Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):CRITICAL (0.0%)

Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):POOR (5.0%)

📊 Valuation Trilogy

Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis

Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis

Zyberno's Verdict

ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING S.A. (AMPWF) stock report — Zyberno Score 23/100 (POOR BUSINESS). Full financial analysis on Zyberno.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING S.A. (AMPWF) shows a Brina Gap of -17.6%, which weakens the case: based on the company's ROIC (5.0%) and reinvestment rate (-158.5%), the business can fundamentally grow at -8.0% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects 9.6%.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:0.00

Market Cap:$59.77K

Valuation Multiples (1)

Peg Ratio:-999.00x

Enterprise Metrics (3)

Enterprise Value:$4.30B

Ev Ebitda Ratio:6.08x

Pfcf Ratio:0.00x

B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (5)

Roic:

5.0%

📊 Click to view full AMPWF ROIC analysis →

Reinvestment Rate:-158.5%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-8.0%

Market-Implied Growth Rate:9.6%

Brina Gap:

-17.6%

☷ Click to view full AMPWF Brina Gap analysis →

Margin Analysis (1)

Ebitda Margin:12.9%

Yield Metrics (2)

Earnings Yield:-$999.00

Dividend Yield:532,039.9%

C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):3.4%

Cash Flow Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):50.2%

Operating Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):22.2%

D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:1.06x

Quick Ratio:0.77x

Cash Ratio:0.00x

Leverage Analysis (1)

Debt To Ebitda:6.08x

Coverage Ratios (1)

Times Interest Earned:-999.00

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:111,000,000.00

Cash And Cash Equivalents:0.00

Long Term Debt:$4.30B

Net Debt:$4.30B

DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS

A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $5.50B

Linear Growth: 3.4%

📊 Click to view full AMPWF Revenue analysis & methodology →

Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$4.82B

Profitability Breakdown (2)

Gross profit TTM: $681.00M

Linear Growth: 8.3%

📊 Click to view full AMPWF Gross Profit analysis & methodology →

Operating income TTM: $244.00M

Linear Growth: 22.2%

📊 Click to view full AMPWF Operating Income analysis & methodology →

Bottom Line Performance (3)

$11.00M

Income Before Tax:$0.00

Ebitda Ttm:707,000,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:0.00

R And D Expense:0.00

Sga Expense:0.00

Income Tax Expense:$22.00M

Interest Expense:0.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:0.0%

Sga To Revenue Percentage:0.0%

Ebitda Margin:12.9%

B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$5.68B

Current Assets:$1.84B

Ppe Net:2,480,000,000.00

Goodwill:1,035,000,000.00

Intangible Assets:$1.18B

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:6,354,000,000.00

Current Liabilities:1,729,000,000.00

Long Term Debt:$4.30B

Short Term Debt:$0.00

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:-$675.00M

Retained Earnings:$0.00

Common Stock:0.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:467,000,000.00

Inventory:509,000,000.00

Accounts Payable:1,266,000,000.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:0.00

Stock Based Compensation:0.00

C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

Operating cash flow TTM: $449.00M

Linear Growth: 50.2%

$276.00M

Investment Activities (1)

Investing Cash Flow:$0.00

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:-$98.00M

Dividends Paid Ttm:318,000,000.00

Stock Repurchase:0.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:0.00

Long Term Debt Issuance:$0.00

Long Term Debt Repayments:$0.00

DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS

A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (1)

Earnings Per Share Ttm:$0.02

Revenue & Cash Per Share (2)

Sales Per Share Ttm:9.20

Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$0.75

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:-$1.13

Cash Per Share:-999.00

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:-999.00x

B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:0.97x

Working Capital Turnover Ttm:49.52x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:11.77x

Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:31.01

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:9.46x

Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:38.58

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:95.95

Cash Conversion Cycle:-26.36

C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:20.00

Quality Score:70.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x

Volatility Category:unknown

DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

A. Value Investment Framework

Damodaran Growth Analysis (4)

Reinvestment Rate:-158.5%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-8.0%

Market-Implied Growth Rate:9.6%

Brina Gap:

-17.6%

☷ Click to view full AMPWF Brina Gap analysis →

B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (2)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):3.4%

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):22.2%

Cash Flow Growth Rates (1)

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):50.2%

Other Growth Rates (1)

Gross Profit Growth Rate (Linear):8.3%

C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:AMPWF

Company Name:ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING S.A.

Sector:Industrial

Industry:Metal Cans

Exchange:OTC

Country:Unknown

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A

Price Category:penny

Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:597.70M

Shares Outstanding Basic:0

Shares Outstanding Diluted:0

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0

Last Updated:2026-08-26 14:08:11 UTC

Data Timestamp:2026-08-26T14:08:11.203428