Technology • NASDAQ
According to Zyberno, APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE (AMAT) is not a buy — GREAT BUSINESS (78/100) with a negative Margin of Safety of -66.7% and a Brina Gap of -13.2% showing the market already prices in more growth than the fundamentals support.
According to Zyberno's DCF model, APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE (AMAT) trades at $482.36 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $289.39 — a -66.7% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $7.38B TTM, projected at 21.1% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. The Brina Gap of -13.2% weakens the case: based on the company's ROIC (26.9%) and reinvestment rate (22.8%), the business can fundamentally grow at 6.2% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects 19.4%. This places AMAT in the Expensive Hype quadrant of the Brina Matrix, the most fragile combination — overvalued on cash AND overpriced on growth. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of 8.3% annually.
Over the trailing twelve months, AMAT generated $7.38B in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $337.00M returned via share buybacks, $1.57B paid as dividends, $2.53B invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: 22.8%. Owner Earnings have grown at 21.1% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.