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ZYBERNO
Stock Report
Updated Aug 29, 2026

ALLISON TRANSMISSION HOLDINGS, INC. (ALSN)

Industrial • NYSE

$126.32
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. is an American manufacturer of fully automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles and defense vehicles, headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana. The company is the world's largest manufacturer of fully automatic transmissions for commercial vehicles, with its transmissions used in school buses, transit buses, motorhomes, refuse trucks, fire trucks, military vehicles, and off-highway equipment globally.

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →
Is it a great business? Is it getting better?
63.0/100
AVERAGE BUSINESS
ALLISON TRANSMISSION HOLDINGS, INC. (ALSN) scores 63/100 — decent metrics but limited evidence of durable competitive advantage.
📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +
VALUATION SIGNAL
MARGIN OF SAFETY
Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?
+15.7%
Undervalued
Is the market underestimating or overestimating what this business is capable of going forward?
-7.3%
Market Overestimates
↑ UNDER
+50%
Brina Gap
-50%
↓ OVER
← OVERVALUED
-100%
Margin of Safety
UNDERVALUED →
+100%
UNDERESTIMATED
GROWTH
DOUBLE
DISCOUNT
EXPENSIVE
HYPE
VALUE
TRAP
0,0
MoS +15.7%  ·  Gap -7.3%

Two independent signals. One tells you if the stock is cheap relative to what the business has historically generated for owners — the Margin of Safety. The other tells you if the market is underestimating what the business is capable of going forward — the Brina Gap.

They are calculated from completely different data sources and answer completely different questions. The Margin of Safety reads the past. The Brina Gap reads the present economics and compares them against what the current stock price is assuming about the future.

When both point in the same direction simultaneously — DOUBLE DISCOUNT — the probability of genuine mispricing is high. The market is wrong on two independent dimensions at once, which is rare and significant.

The most dangerous scenario is not an overvalued stock — those are easy to avoid. It is a VALUE TRAP: a stock that appears cheap historically but where the market is already pricing in stronger growth than the business fundamentals support. Without the Brina Gap signal this looks identical to a genuine opportunity. The matrix separates them instantly.

The Brina Gap is the more powerful of the two signals. Most investors and analytical tools focus on valuation alone — whether a stock is cheap relative to earnings. Far fewer systematically compare what the business economics structurally support against what the stock price is actually assuming. That gap between fundamental growth potential and market expectations is where the most reliable mispricings live, and where this matrix earns its value.

Use this as your first filter. A stock in DOUBLE DISCOUNT territory is worth investigating. Everything else requires either more caution or a specific reason to act.

VALUE TRAP SIGNAL
ALLISON TRANSMISSION HOLDINGS, INC. (ALSN) appears cheap historically (Margin of Safety +15.7%) but the Brina Gap (-7.3%) shows the market already prices in stronger growth than fundamentals support. Verify before acting.
🎯 Expected Annual Return →
11.7%
Margin of Safety convergence — your return if the market re-prices to intrinsic value (5-yr annualised)
-9.2%
Brina Gap convergence — your return if the market corrects the growth mispricing the Gap measures
7.6%
Yield + growth — what the business alone earns you, even if the market never re-rates
💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +
📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):EXCELLENT (27.9%)
Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):EXCELLENT (0.10x)
Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):GOOD (19.6%)
Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):AVERAGE (11.3%)
📊 Valuation Trilogy
Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis
💎
Intrinsic Value
DCF Fair Value
$149.80
🛡️
Margin of Safety
Valuation Gap
15.7%
🎯
Expected Return
Projected Annual
11.7%
Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis
Zyberno's Verdict

According to Zyberno, ALLISON TRANSMISSION HOLDINGS, INC. (ALSN) shows a Value Trap signal — AVERAGE BUSINESS (63/100) with an apparent Margin of Safety of +15.7%, but a Brina Gap of -7.3% reveals the current price still assumes faster growth than the business can deliver.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, ALLISON TRANSMISSION HOLDINGS, INC. (ALSN) trades at $126.32 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $149.80 — a +15.7% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $699.00M TTM, projected at 8.0% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. The Brina Gap of -7.3% weakens the case: based on the company's ROIC (11.3%) and reinvestment rate (8.5%), the business can fundamentally grow at 1.0% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects 8.2%. This places ALSN in the Value Trap quadrant of the Brina Matrix — a value-trap signal where the apparent discount is undermined by overpriced growth expectations. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of 11.7% annually.

Over the trailing twelve months, ALSN generated $699.00M in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $20.00M returned via share buybacks, $94.00M paid as dividends, $202.00M invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: 8.5%. Owner Earnings have grown at 8.0% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:126.32
Market Cap:$10.48B

Valuation Multiples (4)

P/E Ratio:
20.08x
📊 Click to view full ALSN P/E analysis →
P/B Ratio:5.30x
P/S Ratio:2.38x
Peg Ratio:-999.00x

Enterprise Metrics (3)

Enterprise Value:$14.54B
Ev Ebitda Ratio:13.98x
Pfcf Ratio:17.22x

Price Action & Momentum (3)

12-1 Momentum:
+37.4% (63th pctile)
📈 Click to view full ALSN Momentum analysis →
Momentum Percentile:63 / 100
% of 52-Week High:91.8%
B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (7)

ROE:
27.9%
📊 Click to view full ALSN ROE analysis →
ROA:7.3%
Roic:
11.3%
📊 Click to view full ALSN ROIC analysis →
Reinvestment Rate:8.5%
Fundamental Growth Rate (g):1.0%
Market-Implied Growth Rate:8.2%
Brina Gap:
-7.3%
☷ Click to view full ALSN Brina Gap analysis →

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:19.6%
Net Margin Ttm:12.0%
Ebitda Margin:23.6%

TTM Performance (3)

Gross Margin Ttm:36.4%
Operating Margin Ttm:19.6%
Net Margin Ttm:12.0%

Yield Metrics (3)

Earnings Yield:$4.98
Owner Earnings Yield:$6.67
Dividend Yield:0.9%
C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Earnings Surprise (SUE) (3)

Earnings Surprise (SUE):
-0.57
📊 Click to view full ALSN Earnings Surprise analysis →
EPS Surprise vs Expected:-11.1%
Latest Earnings Filed:2026-08-05

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):12.6%

Earnings Growth (Linear) (1)

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-2.9%

Cash Flow Growth (Linear) (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):11.4%
Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):10.4%

Operating Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):1.4%
D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:1.81x
Quick Ratio:1.17x
Cash Ratio:0.30x

Leverage Analysis (3)

Debt To Equity Ttm:0.10x
Debt-to-Equity Ratio:0.10x
Debt To Ebitda:4.28x

Coverage Ratios (1)

Times Interest Earned:-999.00

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:1,067,000,000.00
Cash And Cash Equivalents:399,000,000.00
Long Term Debt:$4.09B
Net Debt:$4.05B
DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS
A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $4.40B
Linear Growth: 12.6%
📊 Click to view full ALSN Revenue analysis & methodology →
Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$2.80B

Profitability Breakdown (2)

Gross profit TTM: $1.60B
Linear Growth: 5.2%
📊 Click to view full ALSN Gross Profit analysis & methodology →
Operating income TTM: $861.00M
Linear Growth: 1.4%
📊 Click to view full ALSN Operating Income analysis & methodology →

Bottom Line Performance (3)

Net income TTM: $529.00M
Linear Growth: -2.9%
📊 Click to view full ALSN Net Income analysis & methodology →
Income Before Tax:$689.00M
Ebitda Ttm:1,040,000,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:0.00
R And D Expense:197,000,000.00
Sga Expense:517,000,000.00
Income Tax Expense:$160.00M
Interest Expense:-164,000,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:12.6%
Sga To Revenue Percentage:33.0%
Ebitda Margin:23.6%
B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$8.72B
Current Assets:$2.39B
Ppe Net:1,660,000,000.00
Goodwill:2,812,000,000.00
Intangible Assets:$1.61B

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:6,738,000,000.00
Current Liabilities:1,322,000,000.00
Long Term Debt:$4.09B
Short Term Debt:$358.00M

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:$1.98B
Retained Earnings:$139.00M
Common Stock:1,880,000,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:911,000,000.00
Inventory:840,000,000.00
Accounts Payable:806,000,000.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:178,000,000.00
Stock Based Compensation:7,000,000.00
C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

Operating cash flow TTM: $811.00M
Linear Growth: 10.4%
Free cash flow TTM: $609.00M
Linear Growth: 11.4%
📊 Click to view full ALSN Free Cash Flow analysis & methodology →

Investment Activities (2)

Investing Cash Flow:-$2.62B
Capital Expenditures Ttm:202,000,000.00

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:$1.28B
Dividends Paid Ttm:94,000,000.00
Stock Repurchase:20,000,000.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:0.00
Long Term Debt Issuance:$1.20B
Long Term Debt Repayments:$0.00

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:179,000,000.00
DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS
A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (3)

EPS (Basic TTM):6.37
Eps diluted TTM: $6.29
Linear Growth: 41.0%
📊 Click to view full ALSN EPS analysis & methodology →
Earnings Per Share Ttm:$6.37

Revenue & Cash Per Share (3)

Sales Per Share Ttm:53.04
Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$10.07
Fcf Per Share Ttm:7.34

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:$23.84
Cash Per Share:4.81

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:18.16x
B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:0.61x
Working Capital Turnover Ttm:4.13x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:4.83x
Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:75.54

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:3.33x
Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:109.58

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:105.14
Cash Conversion Cycle:79.97
C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:40.00
Quality Score:85.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x
Volatility Category:unknown
DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
A. Value Investment Framework

Owner Earnings Analysis (3)

Owner earnings TTM: $699.00M
Linear Growth: 8.0%
📊 Click to view full ALSN Owner Earnings analysis & methodology →
Owner Earnings Per Share:$8.42
Owner Earnings Yield:$6.67

Growth Assessment (1)

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:$7.98

Damodaran Growth Analysis (4)

Reinvestment Rate:8.5%
Fundamental Growth Rate (g):1.0%
Market-Implied Growth Rate:8.2%
Brina Gap:
-7.3%
☷ Click to view full ALSN Brina Gap analysis →

Intrinsic Value Models (1)

Intrinsic Value:
$12.43B
📊 Click to view full ALSN DCF valuation →

Margin of Safety (1)

Margin Of Safety:
15.7%
📊 Click to view full ALSN valuation analysis →

Return Scenarios (2)

Theoretical 5-Year Return:
11.7%
📊 Click to view full ALSN expected return analysis →
Forward Expected Return (Yield + Growth):
7.6%
📊 Click to view full ALSN expected return analysis →

Investment Assessment (1)

Buffett Assessment:Good margin of safety
B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (3)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):12.6%
Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-2.9%
Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):1.4%

Cash Flow Growth Rates (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):11.4%
Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):10.4%

Other Growth Rates (3)

Gross Profit Growth Rate (Linear):5.2%
Book Value Growth Rate (Linear):29.5%
Owner Earnings Growth Rate:$7.98
C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:ALSN
Company Name:ALLISON TRANSMISSION HOLDINGS, INC.
Sector:Industrial
Industry:Automotive Parts
Exchange:NYSE
Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A
Price Category:high
Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:83.00M
Shares Outstanding Basic:83.00M
Shares Outstanding Diluted:84.00M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0
Last Updated:2026-08-29 14:33:03 UTC
Data Timestamp:2026-08-29T14:33:03.712832
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