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ZYBERNO
Stock Report
Updated Aug 31, 2026

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)

Energy • NYSE

$12.85
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is an American producer and supplier of proppant (frac sand) to oil and gas operators in the Permian Basin, headquartered in Austin, Texas. The company mines, processes, and delivers high-quality Dune Sand (a premium regional proppant) to hydraulic fracturing operations in the Permian, offering logistics advantages through its Dune Express conveyor system.

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →
Is it a great business? Is it getting better?
33.0/100
WEAK BUSINESS
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) scores 33/100 — weak fundamentals with mixed indicators requiring careful analysis before acting.
📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +
VALUATION SIGNAL
MARGIN OF SAFETY
Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?
-100.0%
Overvalued
Growth gap unavailable — insufficient data for reverse DCF calculation.
🎯 Expected Annual Return →
-2.1%
Margin of Safety convergence — your return if the market re-prices to intrinsic value (5-yr annualised)
10.4%
Yield + growth — what the business alone earns you, even if the market never re-rates
💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +
📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):CRITICAL (-10.0%)
Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):EXCELLENT (0.13x)
Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):CRITICAL (-8.3%)
Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):CRITICAL (-3.2%)
📊 Valuation Trilogy
Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis
💎
Intrinsic Value
DCF Fair Value
$4.64
🛡️
Margin of Safety
Valuation Gap
-100.0%
🎯
Expected Return
Projected Annual
-2.1%
Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis
Zyberno's Verdict

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) stock report — Zyberno Score 33/100 (WEAK BUSINESS), Margin of Safety -100.0%, -2% expected annual return. Full financial analysis on Zyberno.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) trades at $12.85 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $4.64 — a -100.0% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $18.64M TTM, projected at 65.8% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of -2.1% annually.

Over the trailing twelve months, AESI generated $18.64M in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $200.00K returned via share buybacks, $96.90M paid as dividends, $125.16M invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: -289.9%. Owner Earnings have grown at 65.8% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:12.85
Market Cap:$1.61B

Valuation Multiples (3)

P/B Ratio:1.44x
P/S Ratio:1.50x
Peg Ratio:-999.00x

Enterprise Metrics (3)

Enterprise Value:$2.57B
Ev Ebitda Ratio:30.15x
Pfcf Ratio:86.15x

Price Action & Momentum (3)

12-1 Momentum:
-10.0% (69th pctile)
📈 Click to view full AESI Momentum analysis →
Momentum Percentile:69 / 100
% of 52-Week High:63.8%
B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (5)

ROE:
-10.0%
📊 Click to view full AESI ROE analysis →
ROA:-5.1%
Roic:
-3.2%
📊 Click to view full AESI ROIC analysis →
Reinvestment Rate:-289.9%
Fundamental Growth Rate (g):9.3%

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:-8.3%
Net Margin Ttm:-11.1%
Ebitda Margin:8.0%

TTM Performance (3)

Gross Margin Ttm:7.1%
Operating Margin Ttm:-8.3%
Net Margin Ttm:-11.1%

Yield Metrics (3)

Earnings Yield:-$7.47
Owner Earnings Yield:$1.16
Dividend Yield:6.0%
C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):14.9%

Earnings Growth (Linear) (1)

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-50.0%

Cash Flow Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-50.0%

Operating Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):-50.0%
D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:1.82x
Quick Ratio:1.78x
Cash Ratio:0.00x

Leverage Analysis (3)

Debt To Equity Ttm:0.13x
Debt-to-Equity Ratio:0.13x
Debt To Ebitda:11.33x

Coverage Ratios (1)

Times Interest Earned:-999.00

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:216,387,000.00
Cash And Cash Equivalents:0.00
Long Term Debt:$914.22M
Net Debt:$966.72M
DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS
A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $1.07B
Linear Growth: 14.9%
📊 Click to view full AESI Revenue analysis & methodology →
Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$0.00

Profitability Breakdown (2)

Gross profit TTM: $76.19M
Linear Growth: -49.7%
📊 Click to view full AESI Gross Profit analysis & methodology →
Operating income TTM: -$88.46M
Linear Growth: -50.0%
📊 Click to view full AESI Operating Income analysis & methodology →

Bottom Line Performance (3)

Net income TTM: -$118.33M
Linear Growth: -50.0%
📊 Click to view full AESI Net Income analysis & methodology →
Income Before Tax:-$157.76M
Ebitda Ttm:85,310,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:0.00
R And D Expense:0.00
Sga Expense:145,203,000.00
Income Tax Expense:-$39.43M
Interest Expense:-63,144,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:0.0%
Sga To Revenue Percentage:49.5%
Ebitda Margin:8.0%
B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$2.56B
Current Assets:$479.06M
Ppe Net:1,540,798,000.00
Goodwill:152,903,000.00
Intangible Assets:$169.55M

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:1,442,266,000.00
Current Liabilities:262,677,000.00
Long Term Debt:$914.22M
Short Term Debt:$52.51M

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:$1.11B
Retained Earnings:-$122.66M
Common Stock:1,500,000,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:217,515,000.00
Inventory:12,505,000.00
Accounts Payable:84,217,000.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:4,029,000.00
Stock Based Compensation:8,683,000.00
C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

Operating cash flow TTM: $143.79M
Linear Growth: -50.0%
$18.64M

Investment Activities (2)

Investing Cash Flow:-$22.61M
Capital Expenditures Ttm:125,157,000.00

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:$2.77M
Dividends Paid Ttm:96,895,000.00
Stock Repurchase:200,000.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:0.00
Long Term Debt Issuance:$0.00
Long Term Debt Repayments:$1.38M

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:173,767,000.00
DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS
A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (3)

EPS (Basic TTM):-0.96
Eps diluted TTM: -$0.96
Linear Growth: -50.0%
📊 Click to view full AESI EPS analysis & methodology →
Earnings Per Share Ttm:-$0.95

Revenue & Cash Per Share (3)

Sales Per Share Ttm:8.55
Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$0.94
Fcf Per Share Ttm:0.15

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:$8.91
Cash Per Share:-999.00

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:-999.00x
B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:0.46x
Working Capital Turnover Ttm:4.93x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:4.91x
Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:74.35

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:85.39x
Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:4.27

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:28.79
Cash Conversion Cycle:49.84
C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:40.00
Quality Score:40.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x
Volatility Category:unknown
DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
A. Value Investment Framework

Owner Earnings Analysis (3)

Owner earnings TTM: $18.64M
Linear Growth: 65.8%
📊 Click to view full AESI Owner Earnings analysis & methodology →
Owner Earnings Per Share:$0.15
Owner Earnings Yield:$1.16

Growth Assessment (1)

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:$65.79

Damodaran Growth Analysis (2)

Reinvestment Rate:-289.9%
Fundamental Growth Rate (g):9.3%

Intrinsic Value Models (1)

Intrinsic Value:
$579.88M
📊 Click to view full AESI DCF valuation →

Margin of Safety (1)

Margin Of Safety:
-100.0%
📊 Click to view full AESI valuation analysis →

Return Scenarios (2)

Theoretical 5-Year Return:
-2.1%
📊 Click to view full AESI expected return analysis →
Forward Expected Return (Yield + Growth):
10.4%
📊 Click to view full AESI expected return analysis →

Investment Assessment (1)

Buffett Assessment:Overvalued
B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (3)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):14.9%
Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-50.0%
Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):-50.0%

Cash Flow Growth Rates (1)

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-50.0%

Other Growth Rates (3)

Gross Profit Growth Rate (Linear):-49.7%
Book Value Growth Rate (Linear):5.6%
Owner Earnings Growth Rate:$65.79
C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:AESI
Company Name:Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.
Sector:Energy
Industry:Oil & Gas
Exchange:NYSE
Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A
Price Category:medium
Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:124.94M
Shares Outstanding Basic:124.94M
Shares Outstanding Diluted:124.94M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0
Last Updated:2026-08-31 06:37:48 UTC
Data Timestamp:2026-08-31T06:37:48.835044
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