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ZYBERNO
Stock Report
Updated Aug 29, 2026

THE AES CORPORATION (AES)

Utilities • NYSE

$14.73
AES Corporation is an American power company headquartered in Arlington, Virginia, that generates and distributes electric power through clean energy. The company operates clean energy generation (wind, solar, gas) and infrastructure assets across 14 countries in the Americas, Europe, Middle East, Africa, and Asia, and is one of the world's largest renewable energy developers transitioning utilities toward clean energy.

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →
Is it a great business? Is it getting better?
48.0/100
WEAK BUSINESS
THE AES CORPORATION (AES) scores 48/100 — weak fundamentals with mixed indicators requiring careful analysis before acting.
📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +
VALUATION SIGNAL
MARGIN OF SAFETY
Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?
+90.1%
Undervalued
Is the market underestimating or overestimating what this business is capable of going forward?
+66.8%
Market Underestimates
↑ UNDER
+50%
Brina Gap
-50%
↓ OVER
← OVERVALUED
-100%
Margin of Safety
UNDERVALUED →
+100%
UNDERESTIMATED
GROWTH
DOUBLE
DISCOUNT
EXPENSIVE
HYPE
VALUE
TRAP
0,0
MoS +90.1%  ·  Gap +66.8%

Two independent signals. One tells you if the stock is cheap relative to what the business has historically generated for owners — the Margin of Safety. The other tells you if the market is underestimating what the business is capable of going forward — the Brina Gap.

They are calculated from completely different data sources and answer completely different questions. The Margin of Safety reads the past. The Brina Gap reads the present economics and compares them against what the current stock price is assuming about the future.

When both point in the same direction simultaneously — DOUBLE DISCOUNT — the probability of genuine mispricing is high. The market is wrong on two independent dimensions at once, which is rare and significant.

The most dangerous scenario is not an overvalued stock — those are easy to avoid. It is a VALUE TRAP: a stock that appears cheap historically but where the market is already pricing in stronger growth than the business fundamentals support. Without the Brina Gap signal this looks identical to a genuine opportunity. The matrix separates them instantly.

The Brina Gap is the more powerful of the two signals. Most investors and analytical tools focus on valuation alone — whether a stock is cheap relative to earnings. Far fewer systematically compare what the business economics structurally support against what the stock price is actually assuming. That gap between fundamental growth potential and market expectations is where the most reliable mispricings live, and where this matrix earns its value.

Use this as your first filter. A stock in DOUBLE DISCOUNT territory is worth investigating. Everything else requires either more caution or a specific reason to act.

DOUBLE DISCOUNT OPPORTUNITY
THE AES CORPORATION (AES) scores a Double Discount — Margin of Safety +90.1% against historical owner earnings and Brina Gap +66.8% against forward business economics. Both independent signals point to undervaluation simultaneously.
⚠ Significant divergence between Owner Earnings and Free Cash Flow (3.30×). Intrinsic Value and Brina Gap are likely overstated — acquisition-related D&A is inflating Owner Earnings. Verify earnings quality before acting.
🎯 Expected Annual Return →
90.6%
Margin of Safety convergence — your return if the market re-prices to intrinsic value (5-yr annualised)
51.7%
Brina Gap convergence — your return if the market corrects the growth mispricing the Gap measures
52.5%
Yield + growth — what the business alone earns you, even if the market never re-rates
💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +
📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):EXCELLENT (20.4%)
Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):EXCELLENT (0.14x)
Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):POOR (5.9%)
Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):POOR (6.8%)
📊 Valuation Trilogy
Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis
💎
Intrinsic Value
DCF Fair Value
$148.78
🛡️
Margin of Safety
Valuation Gap
90.1%
🎯
Expected Return
Projected Annual
90.6%
Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis
Zyberno's Verdict

According to Zyberno, THE AES CORPORATION (AES) is a buy opportunity — WEAK BUSINESS (48/100) trading at a Margin of Safety of +90.1% against historical owner earnings, with a Brina Gap of +66.8% confirming the market is underestimating its forward growth capacity.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, THE AES CORPORATION (AES) trades at $14.73 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $148.78 — a +90.1% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $3.41B TTM, projected at 26.3% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. The Brina Gap of +66.8% strengthens the case: based on the company's ROIC (6.8%) and reinvestment rate (1,043.4%), the business can fundamentally grow at 70.9% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects 4.1%. This places AES in the Double Discount quadrant of the Brina Matrix, the rarest and most attractive position. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of 90.6% annually.

Over the trailing twelve months, AES generated $3.41B in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $501.00M paid as dividends, $6.44B invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: 1,043.4%. Owner Earnings have grown at 26.3% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:14.73
Market Cap:$10.50B

Valuation Multiples (4)

P/E Ratio:
5.62x
📊 Click to view full AES P/E analysis →
P/B Ratio:1.07x
P/S Ratio:0.80x
Peg Ratio:0.19x

Enterprise Metrics (1)

Enterprise Value:$11.30B

Price Action & Momentum (3)

12-1 Momentum:
+18.7% (80th pctile)
📈 Click to view full AES Momentum analysis →
Momentum Percentile:80 / 100
% of 52-Week High:83.5%
B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (7)

ROE:
20.4%
📊 Click to view full AES ROE analysis →
ROA:3.6%
Roic:
6.8%
📊 Click to view full AES ROIC analysis →
Reinvestment Rate:1,043.4%
Fundamental Growth Rate (g):70.9%
Market-Implied Growth Rate:4.1%
Brina Gap:
66.8%
☷ Click to view full AES Brina Gap analysis →
UNRELIABLE

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:5.9%
Net Margin Ttm:14.3%
Ebitda Margin:-6.6%

TTM Performance (3)

Gross Margin Ttm:20.3%
Operating Margin Ttm:5.9%
Net Margin Ttm:14.3%

Yield Metrics (3)

Earnings Yield:$17.79
Owner Earnings Yield:$32.46
Dividend Yield:4.8%
C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Earnings Surprise (SUE) (3)

Earnings Surprise (SUE):
+1.37
📊 Click to view full AES Earnings Surprise analysis →
EPS Surprise vs Expected:335.6%
Latest Earnings Filed:2026-08-04

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):3.8%

Earnings Growth (Linear) (1)

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):32.5%

Cash Flow Growth (Linear) (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):19.6%
Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):12.8%

Operating Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):8.6%
D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:0.75x
Quick Ratio:0.67x
Cash Ratio:0.21x

Leverage Analysis (3)

Debt To Equity Ttm:0.14x
Debt-to-Equity Ratio:0.14x
Debt To Ebitda:-999.00x

Coverage Ratios (2)

Interest Coverage Ratio:0.05x
Times Interest Earned:0.05

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:-2,175,000,000.00
Cash And Cash Equivalents:1,800,000,000.00
Long Term Debt:$2.58B
Net Debt:$793.00M
DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS
A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $13.05B
Linear Growth: 3.8%
📊 Click to view full AES Revenue analysis & methodology →
Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$10.41B

Profitability Breakdown (2)

Gross profit TTM: $2.65B
Linear Growth: -1.4%
📊 Click to view full AES Gross Profit analysis & methodology →
Operating income TTM: $766.00M
Linear Growth: 8.6%
📊 Click to view full AES Operating Income analysis & methodology →

Bottom Line Performance (3)

Net income TTM: $1.87B
Linear Growth: 32.5%
📊 Click to view full AES Net Income analysis & methodology →
Income Before Tax:$766.00M
Ebitda Ttm:-867,000,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:0.00
R And D Expense:0.00
Sga Expense:232,000,000.00
Income Tax Expense:-$378.00M
Interest Expense:1,434,000,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:0.0%
Sga To Revenue Percentage:6.8%
Ebitda Margin:-6.6%
B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$54.24B
Current Assets:$6.40B
Ppe Net:40,657,000,000.00
Goodwill:342,000,000.00
Intangible Assets:$2.03B

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:44,466,000,000.00
Current Liabilities:8,578,000,000.00
Long Term Debt:$2.58B
Short Term Debt:$16.00M

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:$9.77B
Retained Earnings:$1.43B
Common Stock:1,200,000,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:1,934,000,000.00
Inventory:618,000,000.00
Accounts Payable:2,170,000,000.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:246,000,000.00
Stock Based Compensation:14,000,000.00
C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

Operating cash flow TTM: $4.96B
Linear Growth: 12.8%
Free cash flow TTM: -$1.48B
Linear Growth: 19.6%
📊 Click to view full AES Free Cash Flow analysis & methodology →

Investment Activities (2)

Investing Cash Flow:-$1.80B
Capital Expenditures Ttm:6,441,000,000.00

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:$756.00M
Dividends Paid Ttm:501,000,000.00
Stock Repurchase:0.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:0.00
Long Term Debt Issuance:$0.00
Long Term Debt Repayments:$0.00

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:-1,633,000,000.00
DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS
A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (3)

EPS (Basic TTM):2.62
Eps diluted TTM: $2.62
Linear Growth: 31.8%
📊 Click to view full AES EPS analysis & methodology →
Earnings Per Share Ttm:$2.63

Revenue & Cash Per Share (2)

Sales Per Share Ttm:18.31
Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$6.04

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:$13.71
Cash Per Share:2.52

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:26.76x
B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:0.25x
Working Capital Turnover Ttm:-999.00x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:6.75x
Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:54.08

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:16.84x
Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:21.68

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:76.12
Cash Conversion Cycle:-0.37
C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:60.00
Quality Score:90.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x
Volatility Category:unknown
DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
A. Value Investment Framework

Owner Earnings Analysis (3)

Owner earnings TTM: $3.41B
Linear Growth: 26.3%
📊 Click to view full AES Owner Earnings analysis & methodology →
Owner Earnings Per Share:$4.78
Owner Earnings Yield:$32.46

Growth Assessment (1)

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:$26.33

Damodaran Growth Analysis (4)

Reinvestment Rate:1,043.4%
Fundamental Growth Rate (g):70.9%
Market-Implied Growth Rate:4.1%
Brina Gap:
66.8%
☷ Click to view full AES Brina Gap analysis →
UNRELIABLE

Intrinsic Value Models (1)

Intrinsic Value:
$106.08B
📊 Click to view full AES DCF valuation →

Margin of Safety (1)

Margin Of Safety:
90.1%
📊 Click to view full AES valuation analysis →

Return Scenarios (2)

Theoretical 5-Year Return:
90.6%
📊 Click to view full AES expected return analysis →
Forward Expected Return (Yield + Growth):
52.5%
📊 Click to view full AES expected return analysis →

Investment Assessment (1)

Buffett Assessment:Excellent margin of safety
B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (3)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):3.8%
Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):32.5%
Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):8.6%

Cash Flow Growth Rates (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):19.6%
Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):12.8%

Other Growth Rates (3)

Gross Profit Growth Rate (Linear):-1.4%
Book Value Growth Rate (Linear):12.7%
Owner Earnings Growth Rate:$26.33
C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:AES
Company Name:THE AES CORPORATION
Sector:Utilities
Industry:Cogeneration Services & Small Power Producers
Exchange:NYSE
Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A
Price Category:medium
Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:713.00M
Shares Outstanding Basic:713.00M
Shares Outstanding Diluted:715.00M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0
Last Updated:2026-08-29 13:09:57 UTC
Data Timestamp:2026-08-29T13:09:57.540067
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