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ZYBERNO

Stock Report

Updated Sep 2, 2026

Advantage Solutions Inc. (ADV)

NASDAQ

$34.51

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →

Is it a great business? Is it getting better?

20.0/100

POOR BUSINESS

Advantage Solutions Inc. (ADV) scores 20/100 — concerning metrics indicating significant structural or financial risks.

📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +

The Zyberno Score answers one question: "Is this a quality business worth owning?" It's a 0-100 investment grade that evaluates business fundamentals across four critical dimensions, based on principles from Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, and Charlie Munger.

The 4 Core Categories (25 points each):

1. PROFITABILITY (25 pts)

Metrics: ROE, ROIC, Net Margin, Operating Margin
Thresholds: ROE >20% excellent • ROIC >20% excellent • Net Margin >20% excellent • Operating Margin >25% excellent

2. FINANCIAL STRENGTH (25 pts)

Metrics: Debt-to-Equity, Current Ratio, Interest Coverage, Altman Z-Score
Thresholds: D/E <0.3 excellent • Current Ratio >2.5 excellent • Interest Coverage >10x excellent • Altman Z >3.0 safe

3. CASH FLOW QUALITY (25 pts)

Metrics: Free Cash Flow, OCF vs Net Income, FCF Margin
Thresholds: Positive & growing FCF excellent • OCF/NI >1.2x excellent (cash earnings exceed accounting)

4. GROWTH & CONSISTENCY (25 pts)

Metrics: Revenue Growth, Net Income Growth, FCF Growth, Piotroski F-Score
Thresholds: Growth via log-linear regression • Piotroski 8-9 excellent, 6-7 good

Score Interpretation:

75-100

GREAT BUSINESS

65-74

GOOD BUSINESS

50-64

AVERAGE BUSINESS

30-49

WEAK BUSINESS

0-29

POOR BUSINESS

→ View full ADV quality analysis & detailed breakdown

VALUATION SIGNAL

MARGIN OF SAFETY

Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?

-24.7%

Overvalued

Growth gap unavailable — insufficient data for reverse DCF calculation.

🎯 Expected Annual Return →

-22.9%

Margin of Safety convergence — your return if the market re-prices to intrinsic value (5-yr annualised)

3.5%

Yield + growth — what the business alone earns you, even if the market never re-rates

💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +

Margin of Safety measures how much discount or premium you're paying relative to a stock's intrinsic value. It's Benjamin Graham's core principle: the larger the margin, the lower your downside risk.

Formula: (Intrinsic Value − Current Price) ÷ Intrinsic Value × 100%

How We Calculate Intrinsic Value (DCF Method):

Step 1: Calculate current Owner Earnings (OCF − Maintenance CapEx)

Step 2: Calculate company-specific growth rate using log-linear regression on 16 quarters of Owner Earnings

Step 3: Project 10 years forward using the calculated growth rate

Step 4: Discount each year's cash flow to present value using 10% discount rate

Step 5: Calculate terminal value using 3% perpetual growth rate

Step 6: Sum all discounted cash flows = Intrinsic Value

What The Percentages Mean:

+50% or more

EXCELLENT — Very undervalued

+25% to +50%

GOOD — Attractive discount

0% to +25%

FAIR — Reasonable value

0% to -25%

CAUTION — Slight premium

-25% or worse

POOR — Overvalued

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get." — Warren Buffett

→ View full ADV valuation analysis · → View full ADV Brina Gap analysis

📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in.

Formula: Fundamental Growth Rate − Market-Implied Growth Rate

The Two Components:

Fundamental Growth Rate = ROIC × Reinvestment Rate

What the business can sustainably grow at based on how much it reinvests and what return it earns on that capital. Grounded in historical financials.

Market-Implied Growth Rate = Reverse DCF

The growth rate the current Enterprise Value implicitly assumes. Calculated by back-solving a 10-year DCF model (10% WACC, 3% terminal growth) until the present value of projected cash flows equals EV.

What The Gap Means:

Gap > +5% Market Underestimates — potential upside

+2% to +5% Slight Underestimate

-2% to +2% Fairly Priced — market consensus matches fundamentals

-5% to -2% Slight Overestimate

Gap < -5% Market Overestimates — price embeds optimism fundamentals don't support

A positive gap (market underestimates) combined with a positive Margin of Safety is the strongest combined signal — the business is both cheap historically and forward economics are stronger than the price suggests.

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):CRITICAL (-51.5%)

Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):CRITICAL (4.02x)

Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):CRITICAL (-3.2%)

Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):CRITICAL (-4.7%)

📊 Valuation Trilogy

Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis

Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis

Zyberno's Verdict

Advantage Solutions Inc. (ADV) stock report — Zyberno Score 20/100 (POOR BUSINESS), Margin of Safety -24.7%, -23% expected annual return. Full financial analysis on Zyberno.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, Advantage Solutions Inc. (ADV) trades at $34.51 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $27.67 — a -24.7% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $77.74M TTM, projected at -19.4% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of -22.9% annually.

Over the trailing twelve months, ADV generated $77.74M in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $2.31M returned via share buybacks, $2.77M invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: 294.6%. Owner Earnings have declined at 19.4% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:34.51

Market Cap:$445.70M

Valuation Multiples (3)

P/B Ratio:1.11x

P/S Ratio:0.12x

Peg Ratio:-999.00x

Enterprise Metrics (3)

Enterprise Value:$1.88B

Ev Ebitda Ratio:8.82x

Pfcf Ratio:5.73x

Price Action & Momentum (1)

% of 52-Week High:67.3%

B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (5)

ROE:

-51.5%

📊 Click to view full ADV ROE analysis →

ROA:-10.1%

Roic:

-4.7%

📊 Click to view full ADV ROIC analysis →

Reinvestment Rate:294.6%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-13.9%

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:-3.2%

Net Margin Ttm:-7.6%

Ebitda Margin:5.9%

TTM Performance (2)

Operating Margin Ttm:-3.2%

Net Margin Ttm:-7.6%

Yield Metrics (3)

Earnings Yield:-$999.00

Owner Earnings Yield:$17.44

Dividend Yield:0.0%

C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Earnings Surprise (SUE) (3)

Earnings Surprise (SUE):

-0.35

📊 Click to view full ADV Earnings Surprise analysis →

EPS Surprise vs Expected:-136.1%

Latest Earnings Filed:2024-11-12

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):-6.0%

Cash Flow Growth (Linear) (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-19.4%

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-14.4%

Operating Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):-46.4%

D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:1.79x

Quick Ratio:1.79x

Cash Ratio:0.22x

Leverage Analysis (3)

Debt To Equity Ttm:4.02x

Debt-to-Equity Ratio:4.02x

Debt To Ebitda:7.21x

Coverage Ratios (2)

Interest Coverage Ratio:-0.88x

Times Interest Earned:-0.88

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:367,460,000.00

Cash And Cash Equivalents:102,306,000.00

Long Term Debt:$1.52B

Net Debt:$1.44B

DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS

A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $3.61B

Linear Growth: -6.0%

📊 Click to view full ADV Revenue analysis & methodology →

Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$0.00

Profitability Breakdown (2)

$0.00

Operating income TTM: -$116.00M

Linear Growth: -46.4%

📊 Click to view full ADV Operating Income analysis & methodology →

Bottom Line Performance (3)

-$275.70M

Income Before Tax:-$279.91M

Ebitda Ttm:213,798,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:3,722,196,000.00

R And D Expense:0.00

Sga Expense:246,771,000.00

Income Tax Expense:-$4.20M

Interest Expense:143,523,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:0.0%

Sga To Revenue Percentage:27.7%

Ebitda Margin:5.9%

B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$2.54B

Current Assets:$830.34M

Ppe Net:121,578,000.00

Goodwill:438,900,000.00

Intangible Assets:$909.30M

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:2,137,893,000.00

Current Liabilities:462,882,000.00

Long Term Debt:$1.52B

Short Term Debt:$25.27M

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:$401.82M

Retained Earnings:-$3.00B

Common Stock:197,400,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:634,900,000.00

Inventory:0.00

Accounts Payable:176,148,000.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:25,043,000.00

Stock Based Compensation:2,000,000.00

C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

Operating cash flow TTM: $124.89M

Linear Growth: -14.4%

Free cash flow TTM: $122.11M

Linear Growth: -19.4%

📊 Click to view full ADV Free Cash Flow analysis & methodology →

Investment Activities (2)

Investing Cash Flow:$27.52M

Capital Expenditures Ttm:2,774,000.00

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:-$146.66M

Dividends Paid Ttm:0.00

Stock Repurchase:2,306,000.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:993,000.00

Long Term Debt Issuance:$0.00

Long Term Debt Repayments:$131.32M

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:329,800,000.00

DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS

A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (1)

Earnings Per Share Ttm:-$21.34

Revenue & Cash Per Share (3)

Sales Per Share Ttm:279.18

Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$4.76

Fcf Per Share Ttm:6.02

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:$31.11

Cash Per Share:7.92

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:-999.00x

B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:1.32x

Working Capital Turnover Ttm:9.81x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:5.68x

Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:64.26

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:-999.00x

Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:-999.00

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:17.83

Cash Conversion Cycle:-952.57

C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:40.00

Quality Score:35.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x

Volatility Category:unknown

DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

A. Value Investment Framework

Owner Earnings Analysis (3)

Owner earnings TTM: $77.74M

Linear Growth: -19.4%

📊 Click to view full ADV Owner Earnings analysis & methodology →

Owner Earnings Per Share:$6.02

Owner Earnings Yield:$17.44

Growth Assessment (1)

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:-$19.40

Damodaran Growth Analysis (2)

Reinvestment Rate:294.6%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-13.9%

Intrinsic Value Models (1)

Intrinsic Value:

$357.37M

📊 Click to view full ADV DCF valuation →

Margin of Safety (1)

Margin Of Safety:

-24.7%

📊 Click to view full ADV valuation analysis →

Return Scenarios (2)

Theoretical 5-Year Return:

-22.9%

📊 Click to view full ADV expected return analysis →

Forward Expected Return (Yield + Growth):

3.5%

📊 Click to view full ADV expected return analysis →

Investment Assessment (1)

Buffett Assessment:Overvalued

B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (2)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):-6.0%

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):-46.4%

Cash Flow Growth Rates (2)

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-19.4%

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-14.4%

Other Growth Rates (2)

Book Value Growth Rate (Linear):-29.6%

Owner Earnings Growth Rate:-$19.40

C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:ADV

Company Name:Advantage Solutions Inc.

Sector:Unknown

Industry:Business Services

Exchange:NASDAQ

Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A

Price Category:medium

Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:12.92M

Shares Outstanding Basic:12.92M

Shares Outstanding Diluted:12.92M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0

Last Updated:2026-09-02 00:34:52 UTC

Data Timestamp:2026-09-02T00:34:52.868476