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ZYBERNO

Stock Report

Updated Aug 29, 2026

AAON, INC. (AAON)

Technology • NASDAQ

$75.87

AAON Inc. is an American manufacturer of air conditioning and heating equipment headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma. The company designs, manufactures, and sells semi-custom commercial and industrial HVAC equipment primarily for commercial buildings including offices, retail stores, schools, and data centers, with a focus on high-efficiency rooftop units that give building owners significant energy savings.

Professional Investment Analysis

ZYBERNO SCORE →

Is it a great business? Is it getting better?

50.0/100

AVERAGE BUSINESS

AAON, INC. (AAON) scores 50/100 — decent metrics but limited evidence of durable competitive advantage.

📊 How is the Zyberno Score calculated? +

The Zyberno Score answers one question: "Is this a quality business worth owning?" It's a 0-100 investment grade that evaluates business fundamentals across four critical dimensions, based on principles from Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, and Charlie Munger.

The 4 Core Categories (25 points each):

1. PROFITABILITY (25 pts)

Metrics: ROE, ROIC, Net Margin, Operating Margin
Thresholds: ROE >20% excellent • ROIC >20% excellent • Net Margin >20% excellent • Operating Margin >25% excellent

2. FINANCIAL STRENGTH (25 pts)

Metrics: Debt-to-Equity, Current Ratio, Interest Coverage, Altman Z-Score
Thresholds: D/E <0.3 excellent • Current Ratio >2.5 excellent • Interest Coverage >10x excellent • Altman Z >3.0 safe

3. CASH FLOW QUALITY (25 pts)

Metrics: Free Cash Flow, OCF vs Net Income, FCF Margin
Thresholds: Positive & growing FCF excellent • OCF/NI >1.2x excellent (cash earnings exceed accounting)

4. GROWTH & CONSISTENCY (25 pts)

Metrics: Revenue Growth, Net Income Growth, FCF Growth, Piotroski F-Score
Thresholds: Growth via log-linear regression • Piotroski 8-9 excellent, 6-7 good

Score Interpretation:

75-100

GREAT BUSINESS

65-74

GOOD BUSINESS

50-64

AVERAGE BUSINESS

30-49

WEAK BUSINESS

0-29

POOR BUSINESS

→ View full AAON quality analysis & detailed breakdown

VALUATION SIGNAL

MARGIN OF SAFETY

Is this stock cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners?

Margin of Safety unavailable — insufficient data for the owner-earnings DCF.

BRINA GAP ↗

Is the market underestimating or overestimating what this business is capable of going forward?

-21.6%

Market Overestimates

💰 How is Margin of Safety calculated? +

Margin of Safety measures how much discount or premium you're paying relative to a stock's intrinsic value. It's Benjamin Graham's core principle: the larger the margin, the lower your downside risk.

Formula: (Intrinsic Value − Current Price) ÷ Intrinsic Value × 100%

How We Calculate Intrinsic Value (DCF Method):

Step 1: Calculate current Owner Earnings (OCF − Maintenance CapEx)

Step 2: Calculate company-specific growth rate using log-linear regression on 16 quarters of Owner Earnings

Step 3: Project 10 years forward using the calculated growth rate

Step 4: Discount each year's cash flow to present value using 10% discount rate

Step 5: Calculate terminal value using 3% perpetual growth rate

Step 6: Sum all discounted cash flows = Intrinsic Value

What The Percentages Mean:

+50% or more

EXCELLENT — Very undervalued

+25% to +50%

GOOD — Attractive discount

0% to +25%

FAIR — Reasonable value

0% to -25%

CAUTION — Slight premium

-25% or worse

POOR — Overvalued

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get." — Warren Buffett

→ View full AAON valuation analysis · → View full AAON Brina Gap analysis

📈 How is Brina Gap calculated? +

Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in.

Formula: Fundamental Growth Rate − Market-Implied Growth Rate

The Two Components:

Fundamental Growth Rate = ROIC × Reinvestment Rate

What the business can sustainably grow at based on how much it reinvests and what return it earns on that capital. Grounded in historical financials.

Market-Implied Growth Rate = Reverse DCF

The growth rate the current Enterprise Value implicitly assumes. Calculated by back-solving a 10-year DCF model (10% WACC, 3% terminal growth) until the present value of projected cash flows equals EV.

What The Gap Means:

Gap > +5% Market Underestimates — potential upside

+2% to +5% Slight Underestimate

-2% to +2% Fairly Priced — market consensus matches fundamentals

-5% to -2% Slight Overestimate

Gap < -5% Market Overestimates — price embeds optimism fundamentals don't support

A positive gap (market underestimates) combined with a positive Margin of Safety is the strongest combined signal — the business is both cheap historically and forward economics are stronger than the price suggests.

Critical Financial Health Indicators

Return on Equity (Profitability):GOOD (17.2%)

Debt-to-Equity (Solvency Risk):EXCELLENT (0.03x)

Operating Margin (Operational Efficiency):AVERAGE (11.0%)

Return on Capital (Capital Efficiency):GOOD (18.5%)

📊 Valuation Trilogy

Three interconnected metrics for complete valuation analysis

Click any metric for full methodology and detailed analysis

Zyberno's Verdict

AAON, INC. (AAON) stock report — Zyberno Score 50/100 (AVERAGE BUSINESS). Full financial analysis on Zyberno.

According to Zyberno's DCF model, AAON, INC. (AAON) shows a Brina Gap of -21.6%, which weakens the case: based on the company's ROIC (18.5%) and reinvestment rate (-41.1%), the business can fundamentally grow at -7.6% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects 14.0%.

DIVISION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A. Market Valuation

Market Price & Capitalization (2)

Current Price:75.87

Market Cap:$6.24B

Valuation Multiples (4)

P/E Ratio:

39.72x

📊 Click to view full AAON P/E analysis →

P/B Ratio:6.17x

P/S Ratio:3.23x

Peg Ratio:1.37x

Enterprise Metrics (2)

Enterprise Value:$6.27B

Ev Ebitda Ratio:20.63x

Price Action & Momentum (3)

12-1 Momentum:

+23.5% (88th pctile)

📈 Click to view full AAON Momentum analysis →

Momentum Percentile:88 / 100

% of 52-Week High:50.4%

B. Profitability Assessment

Return Metrics (7)

ROE:

17.2%

📊 Click to view full AAON ROE analysis →

ROA:9.3%

Roic:

18.5%

📊 Click to view full AAON ROIC analysis →

Reinvestment Rate:-41.1%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-7.6%

Market-Implied Growth Rate:14.0%

Brina Gap:

-21.6%

☷ Click to view full AAON Brina Gap analysis →

Margin Analysis (3)

Operating Margin Ttm:11.0%

Net Margin Ttm:8.2%

Ebitda Margin:15.7%

TTM Performance (3)

Gross Margin Ttm:25.6%

Operating Margin Ttm:11.0%

Net Margin Ttm:8.2%

Yield Metrics (2)

Earnings Yield:$2.52

Dividend Yield:0.5%

C. Log-Linear Regression Growth Trends

Earnings Surprise (SUE) (3)

Earnings Surprise (SUE):

+1.46

📊 Click to view full AAON Earnings Surprise analysis →

EPS Surprise vs Expected:225.7%

Latest Earnings Filed:2026-08-10

Revenue Growth (Linear) (1)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):20.3%

Earnings Growth (Linear) (1)

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-3.2%

Cash Flow Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-16.0%

Operating Growth (Linear) (1)

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):-0.9%

D. Financial Stability

Liquidity Ratios (3)

Current Ratio:3.01x

Quick Ratio:2.01x

Cash Ratio:0.00x

Leverage Analysis (3)

Debt To Equity Ttm:0.03x

Debt-to-Equity Ratio:0.03x

Debt To Ebitda:0.11x

Coverage Ratios (1)

Times Interest Earned:-999.00

Capital Structure (4)

Working Capital:664,749,000.00

Cash And Cash Equivalents:13,000.00

Long Term Debt:$28.53M

Net Debt:$31.90M

DIVISION II: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS

A. Income Statement Analysis

Revenue Components (2)

Revenue TTM: $1.93B

Linear Growth: 20.3%

📊 Click to view full AAON Revenue analysis & methodology →

Cost Of Revenue Ttm:$1.44B

Profitability Breakdown (2)

Gross profit TTM: $494.09M

Linear Growth: 12.2%

📊 Click to view full AAON Gross Profit analysis & methodology →

Operating income TTM: $213.50M

Linear Growth: -89.0%

📊 Click to view full AAON Operating Income analysis & methodology →

Bottom Line Performance (3)

Net income TTM: $159.29M

Linear Growth: -3.2%

📊 Click to view full AAON Net Income analysis & methodology →

Income Before Tax:$191.69M

Ebitda Ttm:303,810,000.00

Operating Expenses (5)

Operating Expenses:0.00

R And D Expense:58,200,000.00

Sga Expense:280,553,000.00

Income Tax Expense:$32.40M

Interest Expense:-12,373,000.00

Expense Ratios (3)

R And D To Revenue Percentage:9.3%

Sga To Revenue Percentage:44.7%

Ebitda Margin:15.7%

B. Balance Sheet Analysis

Asset Composition (5)

Total Assets:$1.86B

Current Assets:$995.02M

Ppe Net:682,779,000.00

Goodwill:0.00

Intangible Assets:$86.00M

Liability Structure (4)

Total Liabilities:853,267,000.00

Current Liabilities:330,271,000.00

Long Term Debt:$28.53M

Short Term Debt:$3.39M

Equity & Capital (3)

Equity:$1.01B

Retained Earnings:$910.40M

Common Stock:200,000,000.00

Working Capital Items (3)

Accounts Receivable:360,763,000.00

Inventory:331,328,000.00

Accounts Payable:171,717,000.00

Special Items (2)

Contract Liabilities:12,752,000.00

Stock Based Compensation:7,696,000.00

C. Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Activities (2)

Operating cash flow TTM: $65.57M

Linear Growth: -16.0%

$0.00

Investment Activities (1)

Investing Cash Flow:-$51.29M

Financing Activities (3)

Financing Cash Flow:$17.15M

Dividends Paid Ttm:32,704,000.00

Stock Repurchase:0.00

Capital Transactions (3)

Common Stock Issuance:0.00

Long Term Debt Issuance:$0.00

Long Term Debt Repayments:$0.00

Non-Cash Items (1)

Depreciation Amortization Ttm:90,312,000.00

DIVISION III: OPERATIONAL METRICS

A. Per Share Analysis

Earnings Per Share (3)

EPS (Basic TTM):1.95

Eps diluted TTM: $1.91

Linear Growth: -8.2%

📊 Click to view full AAON EPS analysis & methodology →

Earnings Per Share Ttm:$1.94

Revenue & Cash Per Share (2)

Sales Per Share Ttm:23.51

Operating Cash Flow Per Share:$0.01

Book Value & Capital (2)

Book Value Per Share:$12.29

Cash Per Share:0.00

Dividend Policy (1)

Dividend Payout Ratio:23.69x

B. Operational Efficiency

Asset Utilization (2)

Asset Turnover Ttm:1.12x

Working Capital Turnover Ttm:2.91x

Receivables Management (2)

Receivables Turnover Ttm:5.36x

Days Sales Outstanding Ttm:68.14

Inventory Management (2)

Inventory Turnover Ttm:4.34x

Days Inventory Outstanding Ttm:84.08

Payables & Cash Cycle (2)

Days Payable Outstanding:43.58

Cash Conversion Cycle:108.65

C. Quality & Risk Metrics

Financial Quality Scores (2)

Financial Strength Score:100.00

Quality Score:80.00

Market Metrics (2)

Beta:0.00x

Volatility Category:unknown

DIVISION IV: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

A. Value Investment Framework

Damodaran Growth Analysis (4)

Reinvestment Rate:-41.1%

Fundamental Growth Rate (g):-7.6%

Market-Implied Growth Rate:14.0%

Brina Gap:

-21.6%

☷ Click to view full AAON Brina Gap analysis →

B. Log-Linear Regression Growth Analysis

Growth Rates (Log-Linear Regression) (3)

Revenue Growth Rate (Linear):20.3%

Net Income Growth Rate (Linear):-3.2%

Operating Income Growth Rate (Linear):-0.9%

Cash Flow Growth Rates (1)

Operating Cash Flow Growth Rate (Linear):-16.0%

Other Growth Rates (2)

Gross Profit Growth Rate (Linear):12.2%

Book Value Growth Rate (Linear):17.7%

C. Company Profile & Context

Corporate Information (6)

Symbol:AAON

Company Name:AAON, INC.

Sector:Technology

Industry:Air-Cond & Warm Air Heatg Equip & Comm & Indl Refrig Equip

Exchange:NASDAQ

Country:United States

Market Classification (3)

Market Cap Category:N/A

Price Category:high

Volume Category:N/A

Share Structure (3)

Shares Outstanding:82.19M

Shares Outstanding Basic:82.19M

Shares Outstanding Diluted:83.72M

Data Processing Info (3)

Processing Version:v3.0

Last Updated:2026-08-29 12:59:55 UTC

Data Timestamp:2026-08-29T12:59:55.334161