NASDAQ
According to Zyberno, American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) shows a Value Trap signal — POOR BUSINESS (18/100) with an apparent Margin of Safety of +78.6%, but a Brina Gap of -14.1% reveals the current price still assumes faster growth than the business can deliver.
According to Zyberno's DCF model, American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) trades at $13.64 against an estimated intrinsic value per share of $63.67 — a +78.6% Margin of Safety based on Owner Earnings of $2.97B TTM, projected at 3.3% growth for 10 years with a 2.5% terminal growth rate. The Brina Gap of -14.1% weakens the case: based on the company's ROIC (2.9%) and reinvestment rate (236.3%), the business can fundamentally grow at 6.8% — but the current enterprise value implies the market expects 20.9%. This places AAL in the Value Trap quadrant of the Brina Matrix — a value-trap signal where the apparent discount is undermined by overpriced growth expectations. Zyberno's model translates this into a 5-year expected return of 40.6% annually.
Over the trailing twelve months, AAL generated $2.97B in Owner Earnings. Capital was deployed as follows: $3.77B invested in capital expenditures. Reinvestment rate: 236.3%. Owner Earnings have grown at 3.3% annually over the trailing five years using log-linear regression.