Vistra Corp. (VST)

Utilities · Electric Utilities · Price $139.81
Updated: Aug 28, 2026
VST Stock Rating

Is Vistra Corp. a Quality Business?

Analyzing business fundamentals using proven investment principles

47/100
Zyberno Score
Weak Business Quality

Weak fundamentals with mixed indicators requiring careful analysis

About Vistra Corp.

Vistra Corp. is an American Fortune 500 integrated retail electricity and power generation company headquartered in Irving, Texas, operating as one of the largest competitive power generators and retail electricity providers in the United States. Formed in 2016 from the bankruptcy reorganization of Energy Future Holdings and operating as Vistra Energy until rebranding as Vistra Corp. in 2024, the company operates through six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. Vistra owns and operates approximately 39,000 megawatts of generation capacity across nuclear, natural gas, coal, solar, and battery storage facilities, serving approximately 5 million residential, commercial, and industrial retail customers across 20 states and the District of Columbia through retail electricity brands including TXU Energy, Ambit Energy, Dynegy, Homefield Energy, and Value Based Brands. Trading on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker symbol VST, Vistra operates a diversified generation fleet including the Comanche Peak nuclear power plant in Texas, extensive natural gas-fired generation, and growing renewable energy and battery storage portfolio, positioning the company as a leader in competitive power markets and retail electricity with a focus on reliable, affordable, and increasingly sustainable energy solutions.

📚 How We Measure Business Quality

The Zyberno Score answers one question: "Is this a quality business worth owning?" We analyze 16 fundamental metrics across four key dimensions, using principles from Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, and Charlie Munger. Each category is worth 25 points for a total of 100.
This score measures business quality only — not whether the stock is cheap, what return you'll get, or when to buy. For that, see the Valuation Trilogy below.

?/25
Profitability
Does it generate strong returns?
Buffett's Focus: High returns on equity and invested capital indicate a durable competitive advantage or "moat." Great businesses earn more with less capital.
Return on Equity (ROE) ROENet income divided by shareholder equity. Measures how efficiently a company uses investor capital to generate profits.Excellent: >20% | Good: >15% 41.4%
Return on Invested Capital ROICOperating profit divided by total invested capital. Shows how well a company allocates capital to profitable investments.Excellent: >20% | Good: >15% 10.1%
Net Profit Margin Net MarginNet income as a percentage of revenue. Higher margins indicate pricing power and operational efficiency.Excellent: >20% | Good: >12% 11.6%
Operating Margin Operating MarginOperating income as a percentage of revenue. Measures core business profitability before interest and taxes.Excellent: >25% | Good: >15% 18.5%
?/25
Financial Strength
Can it survive tough times?
Graham's Principle: Low debt, strong liquidity, and adequate interest coverage protect against bankruptcy and provide stability during economic downturns.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio D/E RatioTotal debt divided by shareholder equity. Lower values indicate less reliance on borrowed money to fund operations.Excellent: <0.3x | Good: <0.5x 3.62x
Current Ratio Current RatioCurrent assets divided by current liabilities. Measures ability to pay short-term obligations within one year.Excellent: >2.0x | Good: >1.5x 0.97x
Interest Coverage Interest CoverageOperating income divided by interest expense. Shows how easily a company can pay interest on its debt.Excellent: >10x | Good: >5x 1.7x
Altman Z-Score Altman Z-ScoreBankruptcy prediction formula combining profitability, leverage, liquidity, and solvency ratios.Safe: >3.0 | Gray zone: 1.8-3.0 1.35
?/25
Cash Flow Quality
Is the profit real?
Munger's Test: "Show me the cash." Accounting profits can be manipulated, but cash flow doesn't lie. Great businesses generate real, spendable cash.
Free Cash Flow Free Cash FlowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The actual cash available after maintaining the business.Excellent: Positive and growing $1.80B
OCF vs Net Income Cash vs EarningsOperating cash flow divided by net income. Values above 1.0 mean cash earnings exceed accounting earnings - a sign of quality.Excellent: >1.2x | Good: >1.0x 2.10x
FCF Margin FCF MarginFree cash flow as a percentage of revenue. Shows how much real cash profit is generated per dollar of sales.Excellent: >15% | Good: >10% 9.4%
Cash Conversion Cycle Cash ConversionDays between paying suppliers and receiving cash from customers. Lower is better - means faster cash collection.Excellent: <30 days | Good: <60 days 33 days
?/25
Growth & Consistency
Is it getting better?
Lynch's Approach: Sustainable growth matters. We use log-linear regression to identify consistent long-term trends, not just year-over-year noise.
Revenue Growth (5yr) Revenue GrowthAnnualized revenue growth rate using log-linear regression over 5 years. Smooths out year-to-year volatility.Excellent: >15% | Good: >10% 5.1%
Net Income Growth (5yr) Profit GrowthAnnualized net income growth rate using log-linear regression. Shows whether profits are consistently expanding.Excellent: >15% | Good: >10% -11.8%
FCF Growth (5yr) Cash Flow GrowthAnnualized free cash flow growth rate. Growing FCF means the business generates more real cash over time.Excellent: >15% | Good: >10% 62.1%
Piotroski F-Score Piotroski F-Score9-point checklist measuring profitability, leverage, and efficiency improvements. Higher scores indicate stronger fundamentals.Excellent: 8-9 | Good: 6-7 4/9

🎯 Recent Earnings Momentum

A separate, shorter-horizon signal — not part of the long-term quality score above. Standardized Unexpected Earnings (SUE) measures how far VST's latest quarter beat or missed its own seasonal earnings trend.

-0.26 In Line
−4−20+2+4
Strong missMissIn lineBeatStrong beat

View VST's full earnings-surprise history and what this signal means →

💡 Quality Is Only Half the Picture

A high quality score means VST shows strong business fundamentals. But even the best business can be a poor investment at the wrong price. As Warren Buffett says: "Price is what you pay, value is what you get."

To complete your analysis, examine our Valuation Trilogy:

21.5%
Fair Discount
-50% (Overvalued) 0% (Fair Value) +50% (Undervalued)
VST is trading at 21.5% below its estimated intrinsic value
Margin of Safety
+21.5%
Brina Gap ↗
+4.1%
Slight Underestimate
↑ UNDER
+50%
Brina Gap
-50%
↓ OVER
← OVERVALUED
-100%
Margin of Safety
UNDERVALUED →
+100%
UNDERESTIMATED
GROWTH
DOUBLE
DISCOUNT
EXPENSIVE
HYPE
VALUE
TRAP
DOUBLE DISCOUNT

In the Brina Matrix, Vistra Corp. (VST) scores a Double Discount — Margin of Safety +21.50% against historical owner earnings and Brina Gap +4.1% against forward business economics. Both independent signals point to undervaluation simultaneously.

Two independent signals plotted on a single chart. The horizontal axis is the Margin of Safety — it tells you whether the stock is cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners. The vertical axis is the Brina Gap — it tells you whether the market is underestimating or overestimating how fast the business can grow going forward.

They are derived from completely different data sources and answer completely different questions. The Margin of Safety reads the past. The Brina Gap reads the present business economics and compares them against what the current stock price is already betting on about the future.

When both point the same way — DOUBLE DISCOUNT (top-right) — the two independent signals agree the stock is undervalued. In the full S&P 500 backtest (2010–2024), the framework's sharpest edge proved to be its negative screen: it flags value traps at a 59.5% hit rate and beats the classic Margin of Safety head-to-head. Across the full validation, the Gap ranked first among all pure valuation metrics tested.

The most dangerous quadrant is not the most obvious one. VALUE TRAP (bottom-right) looks cheap relative to historical earnings, but the Brina Gap negative reveals the current price still assumes faster growth than the business can actually deliver. The apparent bargain doesn't hold up on a forward basis — you are still overpaying for growth that isn't there. Without the Brina Gap, this is indistinguishable from a genuine opportunity. The matrix separates them instantly.

UNDERESTIMATED GROWTH (top-left) is expensive on history but the market is still underestimating forward compounding power — a watchlist candidate if the valuation gap closes. EXPENSIVE HYPE (bottom-left) is unfavorable on both dimensions.

The dot shows where Vistra Corp. sits today. Its quadrant is your starting point — not a final verdict.

⚠ Owner Earnings and Free Cash Flow show moderate divergence (0.51×). Intrinsic Value and Brina Gap may be overstated — possibly from acquisition-related D&A. Treat both signals as upper bounds.

The Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in.

A positive Brina Gap means the market is underestimating the business. The stock price assumes a lower growth rate than the company's economics actually support — the business is quietly compounding ahead of market expectations. A negative Brina Gap means the opposite: the price already bakes in growth the fundamentals don't support.

This is the signal that separates a genuine bargain from a value trap. A cheap stock (high Margin of Safety) can still destroy capital if the business is deteriorating. The Brina Gap tells you whether the forward economics back up the historical discount — or contradict it.

Most analytical tools focus exclusively on valuation — whether a stock is cheap. Far fewer systematically compare what the business can actually grow against what the price is assuming. That comparison is where the most reliable mispricings live.

The Brina Gap is the difference between two independently derived growth rates:

Fundamental Growth Rate — calculated from the business's own economics: ROIC × reinvestment rate. This is what the company is structurally capable of growing at based on how efficiently it deploys capital and how much it reinvests.

Market-Implied Growth Rate — derived by reverse DCF. We solve for the growth rate that, when plugged into a standard DCF model, produces exactly the current Enterprise Value. This is the growth rate the market is silently betting on every time someone buys or sells the stock.

Brina Gap = Fundamental Growth Rate − Market-Implied Growth Rate

A positive result means the business can grow faster than the price assumes. A negative result means the price assumes more growth than the fundamentals support. The further from zero, the stronger the signal.

💎
Intrinsic Value
$59.96B
What is the business actually worth?
🛡
Margin of Safety
21.5%
How much discount are you getting?
🎯
Expected Annual Return
18.1% if market re-prices to value
22.3% if the Brina Gap closes
20.9% business alone
What return might you earn?

📈 Price Action Check

Market trend context — not part of the Zyberno Score

12-1 Momentum
-21.2%
Momentum Percentile
23 / 100
% of 52-Week High
63.6%
Weak Momentum

The market has been actively abandoning VST over the past year. If the stock also looks cheap, weak momentum is the classic value-trap warning — the framework recommends extra scrutiny of the Brina Gap before treating the discount as an opportunity. Full momentum analysis →

View Full VST Report Find More Quality Stocks

Conclusion: Is VST a Good Stock?

According to Zyberno's analysis, Vistra Corp. (VST) is a Weak Business, earning a Zyberno Score of 47/100.

What drives VST's score

Zyberno's analysis of VST's fundamentals identifies the following key drivers. An ROE of 41.4% is well above the 15% quality threshold, indicating Vistra Corp. generates exceptional returns from shareholders' equity — a hallmark of businesses with durable competitive advantages. ROIC of 10.1% is adequate but below the top-tier 15% threshold. A net margin of 11.6% is acceptable, though below the premium 12% threshold. A debt-to-equity ratio of 3.62x is high, indicating significant financial leverage that amplifies both gains and risks. An interest coverage ratio of 1.7x indicates limited margin above debt obligations — a potential concern. A free cash flow margin of 9.4% is acceptable, though there is room for improvement. Revenue growth of approximately 5.1% annually is steady, though not exceptional. A Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 is mixed, with some positive and some negative financial health signals.

According to Zyberno's valuation model, at its current price of $139.81, VST appears to be moderately undervalued compared to an estimated intrinsic value per share of $178.01, with a margin of safety of 21.5%. Based on current pricing and fundamentals, Zyberno's model estimates a 5-year annual return of 18.1%.

The Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in. Vistra Corp.'s Brina Gap is +4.1% — the enterprise value implies the market expects somewhat slower growth than the business can actually deliver. The market is modestly underestimating forward compounding capacity.

Zyberno's score and valuation reflect the direct output of the model — business quality from fundamentals, margin of safety from owner earnings, Brina Gap from the reverse DCF. The numbers are not adjusted toward the current price, analyst ratings, or market sentiment. The score measures the quality of the business. The valuation measures the price you pay for it.

Zyberno Verdict

According to Zyberno's model, Vistra Corp. (VST) shows discounted signals with weak fundamentals — a Weak Business (47/100) with a Margin of Safety of 21.5% and Brina Gap of +4.1% both pointing to undervaluation, but business quality significantly limits conviction.

❓ Frequently Asked Questions

What does VST's Zyberno Score of 47/100 mean?

According to Zyberno's scoring model, a score of 47/100 places Vistra Corp. in the Weak Business category — weak fundamentals with mixed indicators requiring careful analysis. Zyberno's model scores 75–100 as excellent, 65–74 as good, 50–64 as average, 30–49 as below average, and below 30 as poor, based on the investment frameworks of Buffett, Graham, Lynch, and Munger. Note that a high quality score measures business fundamentals, not whether the stock is currently priced attractively — for that, see the margin of safety analysis.

What makes a stock "high quality"?

A high-quality stock typically exhibits: strong returns on equity and invested capital (indicating competitive advantages), healthy profit margins, low debt levels, ample liquidity, consistent cash flow generation, and sustainable growth. We analyze 16 key metrics across four categories - Profitability (ROE, ROIC, margins), Financial Strength (debt, liquidity, coverage), Cash Flow Quality (FCF, OCF vs earnings), and Growth & Consistency (revenue/profit trends, Piotroski score) - drawing from the investment philosophies of Buffett, Graham, Lynch, and Munger.

How is the quality score different from a stock rating?

Our quality score measures business fundamentals - how well the company operates, generates profits, and maintains financial health. Unlike analyst "buy/sell" ratings, we don't tell you whether to purchase the stock. A company can have excellent quality (great business) but poor investment potential (if overpriced), or vice versa. For valuation analysis, see our Margin of Safety page.

Why do you use Owner Earnings instead of regular earnings?

Owner Earnings, a concept popularized by Warren Buffett, represents the true cash available to shareholders after maintaining the business. Unlike accounting earnings, which can be manipulated through depreciation schedules and accruals, Owner Earnings = Operating Cash Flow minus Maintenance Capital Expenditures. This gives a clearer picture of what a business actually generates for its owners. Learn more about VST's Owner Earnings.

How often is the quality score updated?

Quality scores are recalculated whenever new financial data becomes available, typically after quarterly earnings reports. The underlying metrics (ROE, ROIC, debt ratios, etc.) come from company filings and are updated as soon as they're reported. For the most comprehensive and up-to-date data, visit the full VST stock report.

📊 Full VST Stock Report

Complete financial data, charts, all 250+ metrics, and detailed analysis for Vistra Corp..

🎯 VST Earnings Surprise (SUE)

See whether Vistra Corp. is beating or missing its own earnings trend — Standardized Unexpected Earnings and post-earnings drift.

🔍 Stock Screener

Find more high-quality stocks using our advanced screening tools with custom filters.
DISCLAIMER: Zyberno's financial tools, stock screeners, investment calculators, and market indicators are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. Past performance of stocks and other securities does not guarantee future results. Before making investment decisions, consult with a qualified financial professional.
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