Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining · Price $363.54
Updated: Aug 28, 2026
MPC Stock Rating

Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation a Quality Business?

Analyzing business fundamentals using proven investment principles

57/100
Zyberno Score
Average Business Quality

Decent metrics but limited evidence of durable competitive advantage

About Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Marathon Petroleum Corporation is an American petroleum refining, marketing, and transportation company headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, operating as one of the largest petroleum product refiners in the United States. Formed in 2009 when Marathon Oil Corporation spun off its downstream operations, Marathon Petroleum operates through three segments: Refining & Marketing, Midstream, and Chemicals. The company owns and operates 13 refineries across the United States with a combined crude oil refining capacity of approximately 2.9 million barrels per day, producing gasoline, distillates, jet fuel, asphalt, petrochemicals, and other refined products sold through approximately 5,000 Marathon-branded retail locations. Marathon Petroleum's midstream operations, conducted through MPLX LP, include crude oil and refined product transportation, terminal, and storage services with approximately 10,000 miles of crude oil and refined product pipelines. Trading on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker symbol MPC, Marathon Petroleum is the largest petroleum products refiner in the United States by volume, with strategically located refineries serving key markets and export opportunities, while generating significant free cash flow enabling substantial shareholder returns through dividends and share repurchases.

📚 How We Measure Business Quality

The Zyberno Score answers one question: "Is this a quality business worth owning?" We analyze 16 fundamental metrics across four key dimensions, using principles from Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, and Charlie Munger. Each category is worth 25 points for a total of 100.
This score measures business quality only — not whether the stock is cheap, what return you'll get, or when to buy. For that, see the Valuation Trilogy below.

?/25
Profitability
Does it generate strong returns?
Buffett's Focus: High returns on equity and invested capital indicate a durable competitive advantage or "moat." Great businesses earn more with less capital.
Return on Equity (ROE) ROENet income divided by shareholder equity. Measures how efficiently a company uses investor capital to generate profits.Excellent: >20% | Good: >15% 35.2%
Return on Invested Capital ROICOperating profit divided by total invested capital. Shows how well a company allocates capital to profitable investments.Excellent: >20% | Good: >15% 22.1%
Net Profit Margin Net MarginNet income as a percentage of revenue. Higher margins indicate pricing power and operational efficiency.Excellent: >20% | Good: >12% 5.6%
Operating Margin Operating MarginOperating income as a percentage of revenue. Measures core business profitability before interest and taxes.Excellent: >25% | Good: >15% 9.2%
?/25
Financial Strength
Can it survive tough times?
Graham's Principle: Low debt, strong liquidity, and adequate interest coverage protect against bankruptcy and provide stability during economic downturns.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio D/E RatioTotal debt divided by shareholder equity. Lower values indicate less reliance on borrowed money to fund operations.Excellent: <0.3x | Good: <0.5x 0.14x
Current Ratio Current RatioCurrent assets divided by current liabilities. Measures ability to pay short-term obligations within one year.Excellent: >2.0x | Good: >1.5x 1.25x
Interest Coverage Interest CoverageOperating income divided by interest expense. Shows how easily a company can pay interest on its debt.Excellent: >10x | Good: >5x 5.1x
Altman Z-Score Altman Z-ScoreBankruptcy prediction formula combining profitability, leverage, liquidity, and solvency ratios.Safe: >3.0 | Gray zone: 1.8-3.0 3.37
?/25
Cash Flow Quality
Is the profit real?
Munger's Test: "Show me the cash." Accounting profits can be manipulated, but cash flow doesn't lie. Great businesses generate real, spendable cash.
Free Cash Flow Free Cash FlowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The actual cash available after maintaining the business.Excellent: Positive and growing $5.70B
OCF vs Net Income Cash vs EarningsOperating cash flow divided by net income. Values above 1.0 mean cash earnings exceed accounting earnings - a sign of quality.Excellent: >1.2x | Good: >1.0x 1.10x
FCF Margin FCF MarginFree cash flow as a percentage of revenue. Shows how much real cash profit is generated per dollar of sales.Excellent: >15% | Good: >10% 3.7%
Cash Conversion Cycle Cash ConversionDays between paying suppliers and receiving cash from customers. Lower is better - means faster cash collection.Excellent: <30 days | Good: <60 days 12 days
?/25
Growth & Consistency
Is it getting better?
Lynch's Approach: Sustainable growth matters. We use log-linear regression to identify consistent long-term trends, not just year-over-year noise.
Revenue Growth (5yr) Revenue GrowthAnnualized revenue growth rate using log-linear regression over 5 years. Smooths out year-to-year volatility.Excellent: >15% | Good: >10% -1.9%
Net Income Growth (5yr) Profit GrowthAnnualized net income growth rate using log-linear regression. Shows whether profits are consistently expanding.Excellent: >15% | Good: >10% -22.8%
FCF Growth (5yr) Cash Flow GrowthAnnualized free cash flow growth rate. Growing FCF means the business generates more real cash over time.Excellent: >15% | Good: >10% -36.0%
Piotroski F-Score Piotroski F-Score9-point checklist measuring profitability, leverage, and efficiency improvements. Higher scores indicate stronger fundamentals.Excellent: 8-9 | Good: 6-7 5/9

🎯 Recent Earnings Momentum

A separate, shorter-horizon signal — not part of the long-term quality score above. Standardized Unexpected Earnings (SUE) measures how far MPC's latest quarter beat or missed its own seasonal earnings trend.

+3.53 Strong Positive Surprise
−4−20+2+4
Strong missMissIn lineBeatStrong beat

View MPC's full earnings-surprise history and what this signal means →

💡 Quality Is Only Half the Picture

A high quality score means MPC shows strong business fundamentals. But even the best business can be a poor investment at the wrong price. As Warren Buffett says: "Price is what you pay, value is what you get."

To complete your analysis, examine our Valuation Trilogy:

-100.0%
Significantly Overvalued
-50% (Overvalued) 0% (Fair Value) +50% (Undervalued)
MPC is trading at 100.0% above its estimated intrinsic value
Margin of Safety
-100.0%
Brina Gap ↗
+7.0%
Market Underestimates
↑ UNDER
+50%
Brina Gap
-50%
↓ OVER
← OVERVALUED
-100%
Margin of Safety
UNDERVALUED →
+100%
UNDERESTIMATED
GROWTH
DOUBLE
DISCOUNT
EXPENSIVE
HYPE
VALUE
TRAP
UNDERESTIMATED GROWTH

In the Brina Matrix, Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) shows Underestimated Growth — the stock is expensive at Margin of Safety -100.00%, but the Brina Gap of +7.0% signals the market is still underestimating how fast the business can compound going forward.

Two independent signals plotted on a single chart. The horizontal axis is the Margin of Safety — it tells you whether the stock is cheap or expensive relative to what the business has historically generated for owners. The vertical axis is the Brina Gap — it tells you whether the market is underestimating or overestimating how fast the business can grow going forward.

They are derived from completely different data sources and answer completely different questions. The Margin of Safety reads the past. The Brina Gap reads the present business economics and compares them against what the current stock price is already betting on about the future.

When both point the same way — DOUBLE DISCOUNT (top-right) — the two independent signals agree the stock is undervalued. In the full S&P 500 backtest (2010–2024), the framework's sharpest edge proved to be its negative screen: it flags value traps at a 59.5% hit rate and beats the classic Margin of Safety head-to-head. Across the full validation, the Gap ranked first among all pure valuation metrics tested.

The most dangerous quadrant is not the most obvious one. VALUE TRAP (bottom-right) looks cheap relative to historical earnings, but the Brina Gap negative reveals the current price still assumes faster growth than the business can actually deliver. The apparent bargain doesn't hold up on a forward basis — you are still overpaying for growth that isn't there. Without the Brina Gap, this is indistinguishable from a genuine opportunity. The matrix separates them instantly.

UNDERESTIMATED GROWTH (top-left) is expensive on history but the market is still underestimating forward compounding power — a watchlist candidate if the valuation gap closes. EXPENSIVE HYPE (bottom-left) is unfavorable on both dimensions.

The dot shows where Marathon Petroleum Corporation sits today. Its quadrant is your starting point — not a final verdict.

The Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in.

A positive Brina Gap means the market is underestimating the business. The stock price assumes a lower growth rate than the company's economics actually support — the business is quietly compounding ahead of market expectations. A negative Brina Gap means the opposite: the price already bakes in growth the fundamentals don't support.

This is the signal that separates a genuine bargain from a value trap. A cheap stock (high Margin of Safety) can still destroy capital if the business is deteriorating. The Brina Gap tells you whether the forward economics back up the historical discount — or contradict it.

Most analytical tools focus exclusively on valuation — whether a stock is cheap. Far fewer systematically compare what the business can actually grow against what the price is assuming. That comparison is where the most reliable mispricings live.

The Brina Gap is the difference between two independently derived growth rates:

Fundamental Growth Rate — calculated from the business's own economics: ROIC × reinvestment rate. This is what the company is structurally capable of growing at based on how efficiently it deploys capital and how much it reinvests.

Market-Implied Growth Rate — derived by reverse DCF. We solve for the growth rate that, when plugged into a standard DCF model, produces exactly the current Enterprise Value. This is the growth rate the market is silently betting on every time someone buys or sells the stock.

Brina Gap = Fundamental Growth Rate − Market-Implied Growth Rate

A positive result means the business can grow faster than the price assumes. A negative result means the price assumes more growth than the fundamentals support. The further from zero, the stronger the signal.

💎
Intrinsic Value
$27.94B
What is the business actually worth?
🛡
Margin of Safety
-100.0%
How much discount are you getting?
🎯
Expected Annual Return
-38.6% if market re-prices to value
18.6% if the Brina Gap closes
13.0% business alone
What return might you earn?

📈 Price Action Check

Market trend context — not part of the Zyberno Score

12-1 Momentum
+85.3%
Momentum Percentile
84 / 100
% of 52-Week High
98.9%
Strong Momentum

The market has been actively rewarding MPC over the past year. Strong momentum on a quality business usually means the story is already being recognised — check the valuation signals above before paying up. Full momentum analysis →

View Full MPC Report Find More Quality Stocks

Conclusion: Is MPC a Good Stock?

According to Zyberno's analysis, Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is an Average Business, earning a Zyberno Score of 57/100.

What drives MPC's score

Zyberno's analysis of MPC's fundamentals identifies the following key drivers. An ROE of 35.2% is well above the 15% quality threshold, indicating Marathon Petroleum Corporation generates exceptional returns from shareholders' equity — a hallmark of businesses with durable competitive advantages. ROIC of 22.1% comfortably exceeds the cost of capital for most businesses, signaling that Marathon Petroleum Corporation creates significant value on every dollar of capital deployed. A net margin of 5.6% is thin, leaving limited buffer against revenue shortfalls. With a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.14x, Marathon Petroleum Corporation carries minimal leverage — a sign of financial conservatism that reduces risk in economic downturns. An interest coverage ratio of 5.1x indicates comfortable debt servicing capacity. A free cash flow margin of 3.7% is thin, limiting the cash available for growth or shareholder returns. Revenue has contracted at approximately 1.9% annually over the past five years, a trend Zyberno's model treats as a concern. A Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 is mixed, with some positive and some negative financial health signals.

According to Zyberno's valuation model, at its current price of $363.54, MPC appears to be significantly overvalued compared to an estimated intrinsic value per share of $96.69, with a negative margin of safety of -100.0%. Value investors would typically wait for a better entry price. Based on current pricing and fundamentals, Zyberno's model estimates a 5-year annual return of -38.6%.

The Brina Gap measures the difference between the growth a business can fundamentally sustain and the growth the market is already pricing in. Marathon Petroleum Corporation's Brina Gap is +7.0% — the current enterprise value implies the market expects much slower growth than the business can actually deliver based on its return on invested capital and reinvestment rate. This is a strong signal that forward compounding capacity is being significantly underestimated.

Zyberno's score and valuation reflect the direct output of the model — business quality from fundamentals, margin of safety from owner earnings, Brina Gap from the reverse DCF. The numbers are not adjusted toward the current price, analyst ratings, or market sentiment. The score measures the quality of the business. The valuation measures the price you pay for it.

Zyberno Verdict

According to Zyberno's model, Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is not a buy at current price — an Average Business (57/100) with a Brina Gap of +7.0% showing underestimated forward growth, but expensive at a Margin of Safety of -100.0%.

❓ Frequently Asked Questions

What does MPC's Zyberno Score of 57/100 mean?

According to Zyberno's scoring model, a score of 57/100 places Marathon Petroleum Corporation in the Average Business category — decent metrics but limited evidence of durable competitive advantage. Zyberno's model scores 75–100 as excellent, 65–74 as good, 50–64 as average, 30–49 as below average, and below 30 as poor, based on the investment frameworks of Buffett, Graham, Lynch, and Munger. Note that a high quality score measures business fundamentals, not whether the stock is currently priced attractively — for that, see the margin of safety analysis.

What makes a stock "high quality"?

A high-quality stock typically exhibits: strong returns on equity and invested capital (indicating competitive advantages), healthy profit margins, low debt levels, ample liquidity, consistent cash flow generation, and sustainable growth. We analyze 16 key metrics across four categories - Profitability (ROE, ROIC, margins), Financial Strength (debt, liquidity, coverage), Cash Flow Quality (FCF, OCF vs earnings), and Growth & Consistency (revenue/profit trends, Piotroski score) - drawing from the investment philosophies of Buffett, Graham, Lynch, and Munger.

How is the quality score different from a stock rating?

Our quality score measures business fundamentals - how well the company operates, generates profits, and maintains financial health. Unlike analyst "buy/sell" ratings, we don't tell you whether to purchase the stock. A company can have excellent quality (great business) but poor investment potential (if overpriced), or vice versa. For valuation analysis, see our Margin of Safety page.

Why do you use Owner Earnings instead of regular earnings?

Owner Earnings, a concept popularized by Warren Buffett, represents the true cash available to shareholders after maintaining the business. Unlike accounting earnings, which can be manipulated through depreciation schedules and accruals, Owner Earnings = Operating Cash Flow minus Maintenance Capital Expenditures. This gives a clearer picture of what a business actually generates for its owners. Learn more about MPC's Owner Earnings.

How often is the quality score updated?

Quality scores are recalculated whenever new financial data becomes available, typically after quarterly earnings reports. The underlying metrics (ROE, ROIC, debt ratios, etc.) come from company filings and are updated as soon as they're reported. For the most comprehensive and up-to-date data, visit the full MPC stock report.

📊 Full MPC Stock Report

Complete financial data, charts, all 250+ metrics, and detailed analysis for Marathon Petroleum Corporation.

🎯 MPC Earnings Surprise (SUE)

See whether Marathon Petroleum Corporation is beating or missing its own earnings trend — Standardized Unexpected Earnings and post-earnings drift.

🔍 Stock Screener

Find more high-quality stocks using our advanced screening tools with custom filters.
DISCLAIMER: Zyberno's financial tools, stock screeners, investment calculators, and market indicators are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. Past performance of stocks and other securities does not guarantee future results. Before making investment decisions, consult with a qualified financial professional.
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