According to Zyberno, FIRST GUARANTY BANCSHARES, INC. (FGBI) has a Standardized Unexpected Earnings (SUE) of +1.41 (Positive Surprise) — the latest quarter came in meaningfully above its own seasonal earnings trend. Its latest reported quarter came in +117.2% versus the seasonal-trend expectation, filed Aug 14, 2026. SUE is computed from SEC-reported actuals using a seasonal random walk with drift — it does not use analyst estimates.
📏 Where This Quarter's Surprise Sits
📈 SUE Trend — Last 8 Quarters
Each point is that quarter's Standardized Unexpected Earnings — how far results beat (green, above the line) or missed (red, below it) the company's own seasonal trend, in standard deviations. The shaded bands mark the ±1 SD "meaningful surprise" thresholds; the highlighted point is the latest quarter.
📊 Signal Interpretation
| SUE | Interpretation | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| > +2.0 | The latest quarter beat its own seasonal earnings trend by a wide margin. | Strong Positive Surprise |
| +1.0 to +2.0 ◀ | The latest quarter came in meaningfully above its own seasonal trend. | Positive Surprise |
| -1.0 to +1.0 | Results landed close to what the seasonal trend predicted. No meaningful surprise. | In Line |
| -2.0 to -1.0 | The latest quarter came in meaningfully below its own seasonal trend. | Negative Surprise |
| < -2.0 | The latest quarter missed its own seasonal earnings trend by a wide margin. | Strong Negative Surprise |
⚙ Component Metrics
📖 Methodology
What is Standardized Unexpected Earnings (SUE)?
SUE measures how far a company's latest quarterly earnings beat or missed what its own recent history predicted — expressed in standard deviations. Rather than comparing against Wall Street analyst estimates, Zyberno builds the expectation directly from the company's reported actuals using a seasonal random walk with drift: the same fiscal quarter one year earlier, plus the average change across recent years. The surprise is the actual EPS minus that expectation, standardized by the volatility of the company's past surprises.
Expected EPS_q = EPS_(q-4) + drift
drift = mean of recent seasonal changes
Surprise = Actual EPS_q - Expected EPS_q
SUE = Surprise / σ(trailing seasonal surprises)
Why it matters: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift
One of the most durable findings in financial research is Post-Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD): stocks that report large positive earnings surprises have historically tended to keep drifting upward for weeks after the announcement, while large negative surprises drift down. SUE is the classic way of ranking that surprise. Because Zyberno's version is built from reported actuals rather than analyst consensus, it cannot be distorted by guidance management — it reflects the company's results against its own track record.
"SUE was introduced by Latané and Jones (1977) and formalized in the post-earnings-announcement-drift literature of Foster (1977) and Bernard & Thomas (1989). Zyberno computes the time-series form from SEC actuals."— Standardized Unexpected Earnings, computed by Zyberno from official SEC filings.
Boundary conditions & cautions
SUE is most reliable for established companies with a stable quarterly history (roughly 12 or more clean quarters). It is shown as "Not Available" when there is too little history or when earnings are too volatile for a meaningful standard deviation — common for newly public or deeply cyclical issuers. The companion "EPS Surprise vs Expected (%)" can look extreme when the prior-year base is very small; the winsorized SUE (capped at ±4) is the more stable signal. SUE is an earnings-momentum signal, not a valuation measure — it is best used alongside Zyberno's valuation metrics such as Margin of Safety and the Brina Gap.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is FGBI's earnings surprise (SUE)?
FGBI's Standardized Unexpected Earnings (SUE) is +1.41 (Positive Surprise). The latest quarter came in meaningfully above its own seasonal earnings trend. SUE expresses the latest quarter's earnings surprise in standard deviations: the gap between actual EPS and the expectation implied by the same quarter one year earlier (plus a drift term), divided by the volatility of the company's past surprises. The latest quarter came in +117.2% versus that expectation.
What does a positive or negative SUE mean?
A positive SUE means the company beat the earnings its own recent history predicted; a negative SUE means it missed. As a rule of thumb, SUE above +1.0 is a meaningful positive surprise and below −1.0 a meaningful negative one (Zyberno winsorizes SUE to ±4 to keep extreme low-base quarters from dominating). The academic finding behind this — Post-Earnings Announcement Drift — is that stocks with large positive surprises have historically tended to keep drifting in the direction of the surprise for several weeks after the report.
How is SUE calculated?
SUE is calculated entirely from SEC-reported actual earnings, with no analyst estimates. The expected EPS for a quarter is modelled as a seasonal random walk with drift: the same fiscal quarter one year earlier plus the average recent change. The surprise is actual minus expected, and that surprise is standardized by dividing by the standard deviation of the company's trailing surprises (about the last 8–16 quarters). For FGBI: SUE = +1.41, surprise versus expectation = +117.2%, latest results filed Aug 14, 2026.
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